- The Twins (67-61) are -135 favorites vs the Red Sox (62-68)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Michael Wacha (9-1), 2.52 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan (10-6), 3.65 ERA
- Watch the game on BSN
The Boston Red Sox (+110) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-135) on Wednesday, August 31, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Red Sox vs Twins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 60-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 59-67 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -185 | O 8 -110 | +110 |
| Twins | -1.5 +150 | U 8 -110 | -135 |
Red Sox vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 58.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+19.15 Units / 37% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+17.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 18 away games (+14.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+13.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 42 away games (+13.05 Units / 15% ROI)
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 45 games at home (+16.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 35 of his last 48 games (+14.70 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Over in 24 of his last 46 games (+14.00 Units / 30% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 48 games (+9.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 110 games (+5.50 Units / 4% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Twins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 72 of their last 126 games (+13.45 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 18 of their last 32 games at home (+7.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+5.25 Units / 20% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 63-64 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -3.1% ROI).
- 60-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.8 Units / -8.89% ROI
- 57-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -5.9% ROI
- 60-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -1.5% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 59-67 against the Run Line (-8.55 Units / -5.68% ROI).
- 67-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.05 Units / 0.03% ROI
- 59-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.85 Units / -2.06% ROI
- 57-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.95 Units / -5.7% ROI
Michael Wacha: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of 39% (344/883) against Michael Wacha on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Michael Wacha has allowed a BABIP of .180 vs left-handed batters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: .277 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 30% (113/381) against Michael Wacha since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (523/1,067) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total CH; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Joseph Ryan: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Ryan has walked 5 of 25 left-handed batters (20%) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (89/312) against Joe Ryan this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (36/125) against Joe Ryan in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .050 (1-for-20) against Joe Ryan — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .224 — 98th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox are just 3-50 (.057) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Red Sox are just 7-28 (.200) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
The Red Sox are just 2-52 (.037) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are just 9-25 (.265) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Twins are just 3-9 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 40-28 (.588) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .528.
The Twins are just 8-41 (.163) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .183 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
The Red Sox are batting just .215 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .754 (11,070 PA’s) since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters are slugging .605 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .570.
Twins hitters are slugging .420 on the road since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Twins hitters have an OBP of .322 (3,373 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
Twins hitters have 56 extra-base hits out of 124 total hits (45%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 834 times this season — 3rd most in MLB.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.2 MPH this season (3,328 balls in play) — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.6
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,373 times this season — 4th most in MLB.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have an ERA of 1.64 (55.0 IP) against division opponents this month (6 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
- Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
- Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
- Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
- Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
- Bryson Sands (Twins): Arm, D15
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, Day-to-Day
- Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
- John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
- Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D10
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D15
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
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