Red Sox vs Twins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 31

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 31, 2022, 11:28 AM
  • The Twins (67-61) are -135 favorites vs the Red Sox (62-68)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Michael Wacha (9-1), 2.52 ERA
  • Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan (10-6), 3.65 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSN

The Boston Red Sox (+110) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-135) on Wednesday, August 31, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.

The Twins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Red Sox vs Twins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 60-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 59-67 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox+1.5 -185O 8 -110+110
Twins -1.5 +150U 8 -110-135

Red Sox vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 58.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+19.15 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 28 of his last 44 games (+17.30 Units / 37% ROI)
  • J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 18 away games (+14.85 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+13.25 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 42 away games (+13.05 Units / 15% ROI)

Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 32 of his last 45 games at home (+16.20 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Carlos Correa has hit the Total Bases Under in 35 of his last 48 games (+14.70 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Jose Miranda has hit the RBIs Over in 24 of his last 46 games (+14.00 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Max Kepler has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.65 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+11.80 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 28 of their last 48 games (+9.10 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 59 of their last 110 games (+5.50 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 72 of their last 126 games (+13.45 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 18 of their last 32 games at home (+7.70 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+5.25 Units / 20% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 63-64 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -3.1% ROI).

  • 60-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.8 Units / -8.89% ROI
  • 57-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.25 Units / -5.9% ROI
  • 60-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -1.5% ROI

Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 59-67 against the Run Line (-8.55 Units / -5.68% ROI).

  • 67-59 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.05 Units / 0.03% ROI
  • 59-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.85 Units / -2.06% ROI
  • 57-59 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.95 Units / -5.7% ROI

Opponents have a swing rate of 39% (344/883) against Michael Wacha on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Michael Wacha has allowed a BABIP of .180 vs left-handed batters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: .277 — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 30% (113/381) against Michael Wacha since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.

Michael Wacha has thrown his changeup 49% of the time (523/1,067) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 144 total CH; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Joseph Ryan: Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Joe Ryan has walked 5 of 25 left-handed batters (20%) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 28% (89/312) against Joe Ryan this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 43% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (36/125) against Joe Ryan in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 63 total IP; League Avg: 45% — first Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .050 (1-for-20) against Joe Ryan — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .224 — 98th Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins

The Red Sox are just 3-50 (.057) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Red Sox are just 7-28 (.200) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.

The Red Sox are just 2-52 (.037) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Red Sox are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Twins are just 9-25 (.265) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Twins are just 3-9 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Twins are 40-28 (.588) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .528.

The Twins are just 8-41 (.163) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .203.

The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .183 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

The Red Sox are batting just .215 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .237.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .754 (11,070 PA’s) since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .719.

Twins hitters are slugging .605 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .570.

Twins hitters are slugging .420 on the road since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .397.

Twins hitters have an OBP of .322 (3,373 PA’s) against RHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Twins hitters have 56 extra-base hits out of 124 total hits (45%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 834 times this season — 3rd most in MLB.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.2 MPH this season (3,328 balls in play) — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.6

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 1,373 times this season — 4th most in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Twins pitchers have an ERA of 1.64 (55.0 IP) against division opponents this month (6 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.

The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Twins vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Daniel Coulombe (Twins): Hip, D60
  • Jhon Romero (Twins): Biceps, D60
  • Randy Dobnak (Twins): Finger, D60
  • Alexander Kirilloff (Twins): Wrist, D60
  • Miguel Sanó (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
  • Tyler Mahle (Twins): Shoulder, D15
  • Kenta Maeda (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Byron Buxton (Twins): Hip, D10
  • Bryson Sands (Twins): Arm, D15
  • Jorge Polanco (Twins): Knee, Day-to-Day
  • Trevor Larnach (Twins): Core, D10
  • John Ober (Twins): Groin, D60
  • Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Jorge Alcala (Twins): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Stashak (Twins): Shoulder, D60
  • Ryan Jeffers (Twins): Thumb, D10
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D15
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.