- The Red Sox are -125 favorites vs the Twins
- Red Sox vs Twins Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Red Sox / Twins TV Channel: TWTV | NESN | KMSP
The Boston Red Sox (-125) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (+105) on Tuesday, July 29, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN, MN.
This season, the Red Sox are 57-51 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 50-53 ATS.
Red Sox vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Lucas Giolito 6-2, 4.02 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Chris Paddack 3-9, 4.95 ERA
Red Sox vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +135 | O 9 -120 | -125 |
| Twins | +1.5 -160 | U 9 +100 | +105 |
Red Sox vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Red Sox will win Tuesday‘s MLB game with 52.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
Bet now on Red Sox vs Twins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Alex Bregman has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 away games (+11.50 Units / 164% ROI)
- Jarren Duran has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+9.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Walks Over in 10 of his last 15 away games (+9.15 Units / 61% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Roman Anthony has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.95 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Carlos Correa has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+9.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- Kody Clemens has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+9.90 Units / 99% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.75 Units / 31% ROI)
- Carlos Correa has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.15 Units / 26% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 10 games (+8.75 Units / 71% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 42 away games (+14.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 games (+12.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 57 of their last 98 games (+10.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+7.80 Units / 51% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 28 of their last 39 games (+15.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 97 games (+14.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 63 games (+8.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+4.00 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 51 games at home (+3.10 Units / 5% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Red Sox are 57-50 against the Run Line (+5.45 Units / 3.96% ROI).
- 57-51 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.51 Units / -1.72% ROI
- 49-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.86 Units / -10.81% ROI
- 56-49 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.95 Units / 1.64% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 50-53 against the Run Line (-4.35 Units / -3.3% ROI).
- 51-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.45 Units / -11.06% ROI
- 43-58 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.25 Units / -17.48% ROI
- 58-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +10.4 Units / 8.85% ROI
Twins vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kody Clemens (MIN) | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -400 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -400 |
| Matt Wallner (MIN) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -525 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -525 |
| Royce Lewis (MIN) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Twins vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Roman Anthony (BOS) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +175 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 -235 | 0.5 +180 |
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 -220 | 0.5 +160 |
Twins vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Wilyer Abreu (BOS) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -165 |
| Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -175 |
| Kody Clemens (MIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Trevor Story (BOS) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Alex Bregman (BOS) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Twins vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Pierson Ohl (MIN) | 3.5 -130 | 3.5 +100 |
| Lucas Giolito (BOS) | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -140 |
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
29% of Lucas Giolito’s strikeouts are on pitches in the zone this month (4 games) — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — fourth Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .085 (4-for-47) against Lucas Giolito with two-strikes this month (4 games) — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .158 — 91st Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .455 (25-for-55) against Lucas Giolito when he’s behind in the count this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: .328 — third Percentile.
Lucas Giolito has allowed an OPS of 1.455 (66 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 42 total IP; League Avg: 1.039 — second Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 36% (47/132) against Chris Paddack when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Chris Paddack has allowed an OPS of 1.444 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game in his last two starts — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .663 — third Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .296 (63-for-213) against Chris Paddack this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — first Percentile.
Chris Paddack has allowed an OPS of 1.444 (18 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — 2nd highest among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .693 — fourth Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox are 48-3 (.941) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .910.
The Red Sox were just 18-69 (.207) when they scored 4 or fewer runs in the 2024 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.
The Red Sox were just 5-58 (.079) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .143.
The Red Sox are just 5-182 (.027) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .048.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are just 2-113 (.017) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Twins are just 2-43 (.044) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .089.
The Twins are just 5-10 (.333) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 1-68 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .260 against LHP this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .444 on breaking pitches this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .375.
Red Sox hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Red Sox hitters struck out 506 times in 1,816 PA’s (28%) against LHP in the 2024 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .213 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Twins hitters are slugging just .166 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .201.
28% of Twins hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The Twins are batting just .164 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .227.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of just 24% against Red Sox pitchers in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Red Sox pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Red Sox pitchers have 175 three-pitch strikeouts this season — tied for 3rd most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 11% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .290 against Twins pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Twins pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have walked 6% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a swing rate of 50% against the Twins pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
More MLB Reading:
Bet now on Red Sox vs Twins and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
Sportsbook promos are always available at BetMGM. For new customers, check out the sportsbook welcome offer and BetMGM Refer a Friend. For existing customers, there are Odds Boosts, Parlay Boosts, contests and more.
