- The Twins are -145 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: James Paxton
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo López
- Watch the game on BSN
The Boston Red Sox (+120) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-145) on Monday, June 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Red Sox vs Twins Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 37-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 36-36 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -165 | O 8 -110 | +120 |
| Twins | -1.5 +140 | U 8 -110 | -145 |
Red Sox vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 62.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 16 away games (+12.85 Units / 42% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 away games (+10.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.55 Units / 54% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 25 away games (+8.20 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+11.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 24 games (+10.95 Units / 46% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 63% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.45 Units / 69% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.05 Units / 32% ROI)
Twins vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
Twins vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -250 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -130 | 0.5 +100 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Twins vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Twins vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| James Paxton | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +115 |
| Pablo Lopez | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -155 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 18 away games (+10.45 Units / 49% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 13 away games (+9.15 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 28 games (+8.90 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 59 games (+5.25 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+4.30 Units / 81% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games (+6.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 40 games (+4.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 30 games at home (+2.90 Units / 6% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 37-35 against the Run Line (-2.55 Units / -2.71% ROI).
- 37-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 0.58% ROI
- 38-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.55 Units / 3.24% ROI
- 32-38 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.65 Units / -13.32% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 36-36 against the Run Line (-1.4 Units / -1.57% ROI).
- 36-36 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.05 Units / -10.92% ROI
- 31-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.85 Units / -13.59% ROI
- 38-31 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.45 Units / 5.64% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
James Paxton has a strikeout rate of 33% (44 SO in 133 PAs) this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
James Paxton has allowed an OBP of just .065 (31 PA’s) with two-strikes — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .243 — 100th Percentile.
James Paxton has allowed an OBP of just .147 (34 PA’s) against right-handed batters — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .308 — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 73% of James Paxton’s pitches (45/62) with two-strikes — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 59% — 100th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez has struck out 34% (65/193) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 98th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 53% (101 SO in 189 PAs) with two-strikes this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 94th Percentile.
Pablo Lopez has a strikeout rate of 45% (56 SO in 125 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 85th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of 37% (138/376) against Pablo Lopez this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox are just 7-16 (.304) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 1-4 (.200) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 27-2 (.931) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
The Red Sox are 30-2 (.938) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .895.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are just 7-22 (.241) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 12-1 (.923) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .781.
The Twins are 14-3 (.824) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .608.
The Twins are just 14-29 (.326) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .416.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .405 (279 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .331.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .360 (1,523 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .340 (2,323 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
The Red Sox are batting .339 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have 572 strikeouts in 2,108 PA’s (27%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .449 (1,516 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
The Twins are batting just .141 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters have 742 strikeouts in 2,717 PA’s (27%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Red Sox pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 2,439 times since last season — 5th most in MLB.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 62% of their games this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins pitchers have walked 203 of 2,659 batters (8%) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Twins vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Jorge López (Twins): Mental, D15
- Michael A. Taylor (Twins): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D15
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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