- The Twins are -135 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Kutter Crawford
- Twins starting pitcher: John Ober
- Watch the game on BSN
The Boston Red Sox (+115) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-135) on Tuesday, June 20, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Red Sox vs Twins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 38-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 36-37 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -175 | O 8.5 -105 | +115 |
| Twins | -1.5 +145 | U 8.5 -115 | -135 |
Red Sox vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 64.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+13.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 19 away games (+11.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.55 Units / 54% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+9.20 Units / 63% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+12.45 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+11.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.55 Units / 72% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 games at home (+9.05 Units / 33% ROI)
Twins vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Twins vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
Twins vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -155 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Twins vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kutter Crawford | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +120 |
| Bailey Ober | 5.5 +125 | 5.5 -160 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 19 away games (+9.35 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 14 away games (+7.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 29 games (+7.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 60 games (+6.45 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in their last 5 games (+6.40 Units / 109% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 41 games (+11.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 42 games (+4.60 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 31 games at home (+2.90 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.65 Units / 22% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 38-35 against the Run Line (-1.55 Units / -1.62% ROI).
- 38-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 1.96% ROI
- 39-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.55 Units / 4.45% ROI
- 32-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.75 Units / -14.5% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 36-37 against the Run Line (-2.4 Units / -2.66% ROI).
- 36-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.45 Units / -12.13% ROI
- 32-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.85 Units / -12.17% ROI
- 38-32 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.35 Units / 4.18% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have chased 53 of Kutter Crawford’s 115 fastballs out of the zone (46%) this season — highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 53 of Kutter Crawford’s 115 fastballs out of the zone (46%) this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of 42% (65/153) against Kutter Crawford this season — 3rd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 98th Percentile.
Kutter Crawford has 17 three-pitch strikeouts this season — most among in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 81% of the time (332/412) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 88% of the time (221/252) with two-strikes since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 55% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has thrown fastballs up 78% of the time (648/831) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 92 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has elevated his fastball 81% of the time (332/412) this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox are just 7-16 (.304) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 6-29 (.171) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .105.
The Red Sox are 31-2 (.939) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .895.
The Red Sox are 28-2 (.933) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are just 7-22 (.241) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 16-46 (.258) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .354.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 14-29 (.326) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .418.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .403 (288 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .331.
Red Sox hitters have just 9 strikeouts in 86 PA’s (10%) against LHP over the last 14 days (12 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .360 (1,523 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .358 (984 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .449 (1,535 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Twins hitters have been successful in 150% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .219 (1,535 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .656 (632 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .743.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Red Sox pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 1,489 times since last season — 4th most in MLB.
Red Sox pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 767 times this season — 5th most in MLB.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Twins have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Twins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 69% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Twins vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Jorge López (Twins): Mental, D15
- Michael A. Taylor (Twins): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D15
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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