- The Red Sox are -105 favorites vs the Twins
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Garrett Whitlock
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray
- Watch the game on BSN
The Boston Red Sox (-105) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-115) on Wednesday, June 21, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The Red Sox are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Red Sox vs Twins Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 39-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 36-38 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | -1.5 +155 | O 8.5 -105 | -105 |
| Twins | +1.5 -190 | U 8.5 -115 | -115 |
Red Sox vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 62.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 17 away games (+13.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Triston Casas has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 14 away games (+10.35 Units / 74% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+9.90 Units / 124% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 away games (+9.75 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+12.45 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+11.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 62% ROI)
- Byron Buxton has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+7.95 Units / 67% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.95 Units / 47% ROI)
Twins vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Twins vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -225 |
| Rafael Devers | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Twins vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christian Arroyo | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Twins vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sonny Gray | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -150 |
| Garrett Whitlock | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -105 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 61 games (+7.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in their last 6 games (+7.40 Units / 98% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 43 of their last 74 games (+7.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+6.80 Units / 21% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 42 games (+12.80 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 43 games (+5.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 32 games at home (+1.55 Units / 3% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 39-35 against the Run Line (-0.55 Units / -0.56% ROI).
- 39-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 3.14% ROI
- 40-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.55 Units / 5.62% ROI
- 32-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.75 Units / -15.54% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 36-38 against the Run Line (-3.4 Units / -3.73% ROI).
- 36-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.7 Units / -13.19% ROI
- 33-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.85 Units / -10.77% ROI
- 38-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.35 Units / 2.9% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Garrett Whitlock has a strike rate of 75% (135/180) — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock had a strike rate of 78% (72/92) — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 82% (101/123) of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Garrett Whitlock has a strike rate of 69% (439/634) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 98th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Sonny Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of just .311 (89 Total Bases / 286 ABs) this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .397 — 98th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 52% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (473/906) with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 93 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 57% (59/103) against Sonny Gray this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 93rd Percentile.
Sonny Gray has struck out just 16% (21/134) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — seventh Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox are just 7-16 (.304) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 32-2 (.941) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .895.
The Red Sox are 14-11 (.560) after a win as underdogs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .454.
The Red Sox are 29-2 (.935) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .854.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are just 7-22 (.241) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 16-46 (.258) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .355.
The Twins are just 14-29 (.326) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .278 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .404 (297 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Red Sox are batting .340 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .359 (993 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .327.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .143 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .653 (636 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .741.
Twins hitters have been successful in 150% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
Twins hitters have an OPS of just .449 (1,554 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .516.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 51% against Red Sox pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 31 of 479 batters (7%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 217 of 2,801 batters (8%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 357 barreled balls since last season — 2nd most in MLB.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Twins pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 41% of their games since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Opponents have a swing rate of 50% against the Twins pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Twins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins pitchers have thrown at least two strikes in their first three pitches to 69% of opposing batters this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.
Twins vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Jorge López (Twins): Mental, D15
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Pablo Reyes (Red Sox): Abdominal Soreness, Day-to-Day
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D15
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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