- The – are favorites vs the –
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Justin Garza
- Twins starting pitcher: Joseph Ryan
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Boston Red Sox () visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins () on Thursday, June 22, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Minneapolis.
The – are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at ().
The Red Sox vs Twins Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 39-36 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 36-39 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | O | ||
| Twins | U |
Red Sox vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s MLB matchup with 70.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+9.60 Units / 35% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.55 Units / 54% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 7 games (+7.55 Units / 82% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 12 away games (+7.40 Units / 60% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Farmer has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+12.45 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 18 games at home (+11.25 Units / 46% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.95 Units / 50% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+8.90 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+7.95 Units / 22% ROI)
Twins vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Twins vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -250 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Michael A. Taylor | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +110 |
Twins vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
| Byron Buxton | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Alex Kirilloff | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
Twins vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Ryan | 5.5 -150 | 5.5 +115 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in their last 7 games (+8.40 Units / 89% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 62 games (+6.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.70 Units / 17% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 43 games (+11.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 33 games at home (+1.55 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.65 Units / 5% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 40-35 against the Run Line (+0.45 Units / 0.45% ROI).
- 39-36 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 1.98% ROI
- 41-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.55 Units / 6.76% ROI
- 32-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.85 Units / -16.66% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 36-39 against the Run Line (-4.4 Units / -4.78% ROI).
- 37-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.7 Units / -12.09% ROI
- 34-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.85 Units / -9.43% ROI
- 38-34 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.25 Units / 1.52% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Garza has allowed an OBP of .444 (18 PA’s) over the last 14 days (3 games) — 10th highest in AL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .307 — ninth Percentile.
Justin Garza has not allowed a home run in any of the last 16.2 innings he’s appeared — Jack Flaherty has the longest active streak at 43.2.
Hitters have swung at 38% of Justin Garza’s pitches (14/37) over the past seven days (1 games) — 9th lowest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 48% — 10th Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 17% (3/18) against Justin Garza over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for 6th lowest in AL over the last week; League Avg: 29% — seventh Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Joe Ryan has a strike rate of 71% (921/1,293) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 98th Percentile.
Joe Ryan has a strike rate of 73% (446/614) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 28 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of 52% (434/839) against Joe Ryan in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 30% (34/113) against Joe Ryan this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — third Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox are just 7-16 (.304) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 14-11 (.560) after a win as underdogs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Red Sox are 13-6 (.684) after a home win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .552.
The Red Sox are 25-26 (.490) after a win as underdogs since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .417.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are just 7-22 (.241) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 14-29 (.326) after a win as underdogs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .417.
The Twins are just 3-8 (.273) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins were just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .360 (1,523 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .404 (302 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .341 (4,558 PA’s) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .342 (2,340 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .142 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .170.
Twins hitters have an OBP of just .290 (636 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .323.
Twins hitters have been successful in 129% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
The Twins are batting just .216 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 218 of 2,838 batters (8%) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Red Sox pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 31 of 482 batters (6%) over the last 14 days (13 games) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 50% against Red Sox pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
The Twins have won just 13% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Twins pitchers this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have an ERA of 3.55 (299.0 IP) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.41.
Twins vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Caleb Thielbar (Twins): Oblique, D15
- Kenta Maeda (Twins): Tricep, D15
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Jorge Polanco (Twins): Hamstring, D10
- Nicholas Gordon (Twins): Shin, D60
- Jorge Alcala (Twins): Forearm, D60
- Tyler Mahle (Twins): Arm, D60
- Jorge López (Twins): Mental, D15
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Reese McGuire (Red Sox): Oblique, D10
- Corey Kluber (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Face, D15
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D60
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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