- The Twins are -130 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: James Paxton
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray
- Watch the game on BSN
The Boston Red Sox (+110) visit CenturyLink Sports Complex to take on the Minnesota Twins (-130) on Friday, March 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Fort Myers.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Red Sox vs Twins Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Red Sox are 4-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 2-3 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -165 | O 11 +100 | +110 |
| Twins | -1.5 +140 | U 11 -120 | -130 |
Red Sox vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 59.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Yolmer Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jaylin Davis has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+3.25 Units / 54% ROI)
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Gilberto Celestino has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Gary Sanchez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.70 Units / 44% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 80 games (+9.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 133 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 away games (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games (+5.15 Units / 12% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 72 games at home (+13.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 79 games at home (+11.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+10.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+7.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 40 games (+7.05 Units / 16% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 5-1 against the Run Line (+4.65 Units / 63.27% ROI).
- 4-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 59.59% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 11.28% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.25 Units / -19.08% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 2-3 against the Run Line (-1.65 Units / -24.63% ROI).
- 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 5.98% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -25.21% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.05 Units / 20.39% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
James Paxton has limited playing time.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (590/1,159) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (259/509) with two-strikes last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Sonny Gray has a strike rate of just 52% (408/791) on sliders since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (734/1,444) with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Red Sox are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 9-11 (.450) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 6-11 (.353) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 8-56 (.125) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Twins are just 32-48 (.400) on the road last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .258 last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox batted .272 at home last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Red Sox are batting .259 since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins batted just .315 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Twins have hit 3,371 balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater since the start of the 2021 season — 5th most in MLB.
The Twins have hit 193 balls in play with an exit velocity over 110 MPH since the start of the 2021 season — 4th most in MLB.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 5.24 (663.1 IP) against division opponents last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
The Red Sox pitchers allowed 357 barreled balls last season — tied for 2nd most in MLB.
The Red Sox have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Red Sox pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.1 MPH (4,136 batted balls) last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Twins vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
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