- The Twins are -130 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: James Paxton
- Twins starting pitcher: Sonny Gray
- Watch the game on BSN
The Boston Red Sox (+110) visit CenturyLink Sports Complex to take on the Minnesota Twins (-130) on Friday, March 3, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Fort Myers.
The Twins are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Red Sox vs Twins Over/Under is 11 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Red Sox are 4-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 2-3 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Red Sox | +1.5 -165 | O 11 +100 | +110 |
Twins | -1.5 +140 | U 11 -120 | -130 |
Red Sox vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Friday‘s Spring Training matchup with 59.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Twins and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Red Sox vs Twins and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Triston Casas has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Yolmer Sanchez has hit the Singles Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jaylin Davis has hit the Singles Over in 4 of his last 6 games (+3.25 Units / 54% ROI)
- Christian Arroyo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Bobby Dalbec has hit the Singles Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.75 Units / 92% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 51% ROI)
- Royce Lewis has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 50% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Gilberto Celestino has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Gary Sanchez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.70 Units / 44% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 45 of their last 80 games (+9.85 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 68 of their last 133 games (+7.30 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 24 of their last 40 away games (+6.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games (+6.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games (+5.15 Units / 12% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 72 games at home (+13.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 79 games at home (+11.45 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 16 games at home (+10.55 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+7.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 22 of their last 40 games (+7.05 Units / 16% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 5-1 against the Run Line (+4.65 Units / 63.27% ROI).
- 4-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.35 Units / 59.59% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 11.28% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.25 Units / -19.08% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Twins have gone 2-3 against the Run Line (-1.65 Units / -24.63% ROI).
- 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.35 Units / 5.98% ROI
- 2-3 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -25.21% ROI
- 3-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.05 Units / 20.39% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
James Paxton has limited playing time.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (590/1,159) with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Hitters swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (259/509) with two-strikes last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Sonny Gray has a strike rate of just 52% (408/791) on sliders since the start of the 2021 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 51% of Sonny Gray’s pitches (734/1,444) with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Red Sox are just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox are just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Red Sox are just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 9-11 (.450) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 6-11 (.353) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are just 8-56 (.125) when allowing 5 or more runs last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Twins are just 32-48 (.400) on the road last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .468.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .258 last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox batted .272 at home last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
The Red Sox are batting .259 since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are just 4-14 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins batted just .315 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Twins have hit 3,371 balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater since the start of the 2021 season — 5th most in MLB.
The Twins have hit 193 balls in play with an exit velocity over 110 MPH since the start of the 2021 season — 4th most in MLB.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers had an ERA of 5.24 (663.1 IP) against division opponents last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.00.
The Red Sox pitchers allowed 357 barreled balls last season — tied for 2nd most in MLB.
The Red Sox have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Red Sox pitchers allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.1 MPH (4,136 batted balls) last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Twins have won just 12% of road games in which their opponents scored first last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Twins vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Christopher Paddack (Twins): Elbow, D60
- Royce Lewis (Twins): Knee, D60
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
Bet now on Red Sox vs Twins and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
