Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction: Game 1 AL Wild Card Preview

The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees will square off in Game 1 of the 2026 AL Wild Card at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday at Yankee Stadium in New York on Peacock.

Check out my Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction based on the latest MLB odds:

Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction for Game 1 AL Wild Card

• Red Sox series moneyline (+140)

Before Game 1 of the AL Wild Card, I’m backing Boston’s series moneyline price in a revenge spot. The Yankees defeated the Red Sox in this round last postseason.

The Red Sox are intriguing road underdogs because the Yankees haven’t been the same team without Aaron Judge, who is officially off the wild-card roster.

Since June 1 (when Judge first went to the IL), the Yankees rank last in the majors with a .297 on-base percentage. They are 25th in wRC+ and 24th in runs scored. It’s why I’m also monitoring the under on New York’s team total (3.5) in Game 1.

New York’s rotation made up for Judge’s absence during a 93-win season. Cam Schlittler, who will start Game 1, closed the regular season as a huge favorite in the latest AL Cy Young odds. He played the role of hero in Game 3 of last year’s AL Wild Card, so he should be ready for the moment.

But if the Red Sox are able to steal Game 1, they will have to feel good about their chances in this series. Boston’s bullpen led the majors in nearly every statistical category, including ERA (3.00) and FIP (3.51). That matters in a series where teams will be more aggressive with their bullpen usage, especially if Garrett Crochet is available to return out of the pen.

I believe the Red Sox are more live as underdogs than the market would suggest, so I’ll be backing the visitors in this series. The over on 2.5 games could also be worth a look at -105.

Prediction: Red Sox series moneyline (+140)

Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds: AL Wild Card, Game 1

• Red Sox moneyline: +110
• Yankees moneyline: -130
• Total: 6.5