Per the latest MLB win totals market at the BetMGM online sportsbook, the Boston Red Sox have an over/under of 87.5 for the 2026 season.
Red Sox Over/Under Wins 2026
- Over 87.5 wins: -115
- Under 87.5 wins: -105
Red Sox Win Total Prediction 2026
- Pass, but prefer under 87.5 wins
Based on the latest MLB betting lines, I prefer to pass on the Red Sox’s win total of 87.5 for the 2026 season. There are probably more paths to the under, but I’d rather wait to see if this line climbs before the regular season.
It’s been a weird offseason for the Red Sox after winning 89 games in 2025. They lost Alex Bregman in free agency, but are hoping to replace some of his production by trading for Wilson Contreras.
The Red Sox are really banking on their young core being ready to lead the way. Roman Anthony certainly looked the part in 71 games as a rookie last year, generating a 3.1 bWAR with a slash line of .292/.396/.463.
Even with a full season of Anthony, the Red Sox’s lineup lacks a bit of firepower to keep pace in the American League East.
According to RosterResource at FanGraphs, their batters have a projected WAR of 23.5 this season. That trails the Baltimore Orioles (30.9), New York Yankees (30.6), and Toronto Blue Jays (30.5) by a solid margin.
As a result, I wouldn’t be surprised if Boston makes a move to boost its lineup before the season.
Either way, the pitching staff will carry the Red Sox this summer. They lead the majors with a projected WAR of 22.3, per Roster Resource. Garrett Crochet is fully locked in as the ace after a runner-up finish in last year’s Cy Young race, but Ranger Suárez is a strong No. 2 starter after joining the team in free agency.
It’s difficult to know what to do with the Red Sox in the best division in baseball. They have the arms to be a championship contender, but their lineup leaves enough to be desired that I’d rather pass on a win total altogether.
Red Sox Win Total History
(Data from Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 86.5 | 89 | Over |
| 2024 | 77.5 | 81 | Over |
| 2023 | 78.5 | 78 | Under |
| 2022 | 85.5 | 78 | Under |
| 2021 | 80.5 | 92 | Over |
| 2020 | 31.5 | 24 | Under |
| 2019 | 94.5 | 84 | Under |
| 2018 | 92 | 108 | Over |
| 2017 | 92.5 | 93 | Over |
| 2016 | 86.5 | 78 | Under |
| 2015 | 86 | 78 | Under |
| 2014 | 88 | 71 | Under |
| 2013 | 83 | 97 | Over |
| 2012 | 90 | 69 | Under |
| 2011 | 95.5 | 90 | Under |
| 2010 | 94.5 | 89 | Under |
| 2009 | 93.5 | 95 | Over |
| 2008 | 94 | 95 | Over |
| 2007 | 90.5 | 96 | Over |
| 2006 | 90.5 | 86 | Under |
| 2005 | 97 | 95 | Under |
| 2004 | 96.5 | 98 | Over |
| 2003 | 92 | 95 | Over |
| 2002 | 86.5 | 93 | Over |
| 2001 | 89.5 | 82 | Under |
| 2000 | 90.5 | 85 | Under |
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