Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 15

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 15, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Yankees (62-27) are -165 favorites vs the Red Sox (47-43)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Nathan Eovaldi (4-2), 3.16 ERA
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Jordan Montgomery (3-2), 3.18 ERA
  • Watch the game on Prime Video

The Boston Red Sox (+135) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-165) on Friday, July 15, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 47-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 43-46 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox+1.5 -145O 8 -105+135
Yankees -1.5 +120U 8 -115-165

Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s matchup with 58.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Enrique Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 24 away games (+10.90 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Enrique Hernandez has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 21 away games (+7.00 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Christian Arroyo has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 7 away games (+6.30 Units / 90% ROI)
  • Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Under in 9 of his last 12 away games (+5.05 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Travis Shaw has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 76% ROI)

Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Aaron Hicks has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+7.75 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Aaron Hicks has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+7.75 Units / 57% ROI)
  • Aaron Hicks has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 13 games at home (+7.40 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Aaron Hicks has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 93% ROI)
  • Miguel Andujar has hit the Runs Over in his last 5 games (+6.35 Units / 127% ROI)

Yankees vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
DJ LeMahieu 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +450 0.5 -900

Yankees vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
DJ LeMahieu 1.5 +185 1.5 -275
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Gleyber Torres 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.5 -250 0.5 +165

Yankees vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 +115 0.5 -165
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
DJ LeMahieu 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +175 0.5 -250

Yankees vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jordan Montgomery 4.5 -155 4.5 +110
Nathan Eovaldi 4.5 -160 4.5 +115
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 42 of their last 70 games (+13.15 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 56 games (+11.85 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 38 away games (+10.50 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 61 games (+10.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 61 games (+5.45 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 79 games (+19.25 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+6.90 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 69% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 49-41 against the Run Line (+9.3 Units / 8.3% ROI).

  • 47-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -1.97% ROI
  • 38-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.3 Units / -8.38% ROI
  • 43-38 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.9 Units / 1.91% ROI

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 43-46 against the Run Line (-3.8 Units / -3.68% ROI).

  • 62-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.85 Units / 9.47% ROI
  • 41-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.6 Units / -8.74% ROI
  • 45-41 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.3 Units / 0.31% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of 56% (349/621) against Nathan Eovaldi this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of 41% (114/279) against Nathan Eovaldi on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 98th Percentile.

Nathan Eovaldi has walked 45 of 1,043 batters (4%) since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Nathan Eovaldi has a strike rate of 70% (1,517/2,159) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 124 total IP; League Avg: 65% — 100th Percentile.

Jordan Montgomery: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of 38% (54/143) against Jordan Montgomery on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 95th Percentile.

Jordan Montgomery has allowed an OBP of just .208 (149 PA’s) versus the top of the order this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .308 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .238 (10-for-42) against Jordan Montgomery on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .327 — 93rd Percentile.

Jordan Montgomery has not allowed a walk in his last 72 PAs against a LHH dating back to September 10th, 2021 — Tony Gonsolin has the longest active streak at 80.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Red Sox are just 132-19 (.874) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Red Sox are 7-4 (.636) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 38-7 (.844) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.

The Red Sox are just 1-33 (.029) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Yankees are 7-16 (.304) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Yankees are 35-11 (.761) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.

The Yankees are 25-5 (.833) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .661.

The Yankees are 5-21 (.192) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .761 (6,535 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .717.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .300 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .269.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .443 at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .400.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.272 (643 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.062.

The Yankees are batting just .290 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Yankees hitters are slugging .560 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .442.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 32% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.7 MPH (2,217 batted balls) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 61 of 545 batters (11%) this month (14 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Red Sox pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

Yankees pitchers have won 61% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 54% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

The Yankees have won 64% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Joshua Donaldson (Yankees): Hand, Day-to-Day
  • Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
  • Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Aaron Hicks (Yankees): Leg, Day-to-Day
  • Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D15
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Connor Seabold (Red Sox): Forearm, D15
  • Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
  • Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, Day-to-Day
  • Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Left groin, D10
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, Day-to-Day
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Joshua Winckowski (Red Sox): COVID-19, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.