Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 16

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 16, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Yankees (62-28) are -160 favorites vs the Red Sox (48-43)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta (8-6), 4.08 ERA
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon (9-2), 4.00 ERA
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Boston Red Sox (+135) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-160) on Saturday, July 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Bronx.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 48-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 43-47 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox+1.5 -145O 9 -115+135
Yankees -1.5 +120U 9 -105-160

Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s matchup with 52.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 35 away games (+15.80 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 37 away games (+13.50 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 29 away games (+13.30 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 30 away games (+13.20 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 35 away games (+12.25 Units / 32% ROI)

Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+11.80 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Joey Gallo has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.90 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Joey Gallo has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.05 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Anthony Rizzo has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+10.05 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.60 Units / 64% ROI)

Yankees vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
DJ LeMahieu 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.5 +1000 0.5 -10000

Yankees vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 -275 0.5 +190
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Jose Trevino 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Yankees vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 +100 0.5 -145
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
DJ LeMahieu 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +115 0.5 -160
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.5 +220 0.5 -350

Yankees vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jameson Taillon 4.5 -165 4.5 +120
Nick Pivetta 4.5 -160 4.5 +110
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 71 games (+14.15 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 57 games (+12.85 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 62 games (+11.55 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 39 away games (+9.50 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 62 games (+6.45 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 80 games (+17.65 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 71% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 68 games (+4.40 Units / 6% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 50-41 against the Run Line (+10.3 Units / 9.07% ROI).

  • 48-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -0.74% ROI
  • 39-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.3 Units / -7.29% ROI
  • 43-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.8 Units / 0.79% ROI

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 43-47 against the Run Line (-4.8 Units / -4.61% ROI).

  • 62-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.25 Units / 8.44% ROI
  • 42-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.6 Units / -7.64% ROI
  • 45-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.8 Units / -0.81% ROI

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 17% (54/321) against Nick Pivetta this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of just .153 (9 Total Bases / 59 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .356 — 96th Percentile.

Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 43% of the time (398/916) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 20% (168/855) against Nick Pivetta since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.

Jameson Taillon: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

The average home run distance against Jameson Taillon against right-handed batters since the start of last season is 381.4 feet — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 399.5

Jameson Taillon has walked 5 of 233 right-handed batters (2%) this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Jameson Taillon has walked 12 of 393 batters (3%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Jameson Taillon has walked 7 of 160 left-handed batters (4%) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 95th Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Red Sox are just 38-7 (.844) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .883.

The Red Sox are just 1-33 (.029) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Red Sox are 25-23 (.521) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.

The Red Sox are just 133-19 (.875) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Yankees are 7-16 (.304) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .117.

The Yankees are 35-12 (.745) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.

The Yankees are 25-5 (.833) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .662.

The Yankees are 5-22 (.185) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .332 (3,079 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .320.

The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .300 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .269.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.279 (650 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.063.

Yankees hitters have drawn 93 walks in 873 PA’s (11%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Yankees hitters are slugging .560 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .441.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.6 MPH (2,268 batted balls) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.

Red Sox pitchers have walked 65 of 589 batters (11%) this month (15 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.6 MPH this season (2,268 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7

In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 54% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.7 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.7

The Yankees have won 61% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.

Yankees pitchers have walked 233 of 3,307 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
  • Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D15
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Connor Seabold (Red Sox): Forearm, D15
  • Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
  • Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
  • Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
  • Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Left groin, D10
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, Day-to-Day
  • Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
  • Joshua Winckowski (Red Sox): COVID-19, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.