- The Yankees (62-28) are -160 favorites vs the Red Sox (48-43)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta (8-6), 4.08 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon (9-2), 4.00 ERA
- Watch the game on FOX
The Boston Red Sox (+135) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-160) on Saturday, July 16, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 48-43 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 43-47 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -145 | O 9 -115 | +135 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +120 | U 9 -105 | -160 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s matchup with 52.6% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 35 away games (+15.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 37 away games (+13.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 29 away games (+13.30 Units / 39% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 24 of his last 30 away games (+13.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 35 away games (+12.25 Units / 32% ROI)
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+11.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Joey Gallo has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+10.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+10.05 Units / 27% ROI)
- Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.60 Units / 64% ROI)
Yankees vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
Yankees vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -145 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| DJ LeMahieu | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jameson Taillon | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +120 |
| Nick Pivetta | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 43 of their last 71 games (+14.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 33 of their last 57 games (+12.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 62 games (+11.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 39 away games (+9.50 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 62 games (+6.45 Units / 9% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 80 games (+17.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 9 games (+7.00 Units / 71% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 37 of their last 68 games (+4.40 Units / 6% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 50-41 against the Run Line (+10.3 Units / 9.07% ROI).
- 48-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -0.74% ROI
- 39-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.3 Units / -7.29% ROI
- 43-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.8 Units / 0.79% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 43-47 against the Run Line (-4.8 Units / -4.61% ROI).
- 62-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.25 Units / 8.44% ROI
- 42-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.6 Units / -7.64% ROI
- 45-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.8 Units / -0.81% ROI
Nicholas Pivetta: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 17% (54/321) against Nick Pivetta this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — second Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has allowed a slugging percentage of just .153 (9 Total Bases / 59 ABs) on fastballs away this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .356 — 96th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 43% of the time (398/916) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 20% (168/855) against Nick Pivetta since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Jameson Taillon: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Jameson Taillon against right-handed batters since the start of last season is 381.4 feet — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 125 total IP; League Avg: 399.5
Jameson Taillon has walked 5 of 233 right-handed batters (2%) this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 12 of 393 batters (3%) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 7 of 160 left-handed batters (4%) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 95th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are just 38-7 (.844) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .883.
The Red Sox are just 1-33 (.029) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
The Red Sox are 25-23 (.521) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.
The Red Sox are just 133-19 (.875) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees are 7-16 (.304) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .117.
The Yankees are 35-12 (.745) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Yankees are 25-5 (.833) when scoring in the first inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .662.
The Yankees are 5-22 (.185) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .086.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .332 (3,079 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .320.
The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .300 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .269.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.279 (650 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.063.
Yankees hitters have drawn 93 walks in 873 PA’s (11%) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters are slugging .560 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .441.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.6 MPH (2,268 batted balls) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.
Red Sox pitchers have walked 65 of 589 batters (11%) this month (15 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.6 MPH this season (2,268 balls in play) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 54% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 391.7 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.7
The Yankees have won 61% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 34%.
Yankees pitchers have walked 233 of 3,307 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Benjamin Rortvedt (Yankees): Oblique, D60
- Domingo Germán (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Ronald Marinaccio (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Luis Severino (Yankees): Lat, D15
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Richard Hill (Red Sox): Knee, D15
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Connor Seabold (Red Sox): Forearm, D15
- Michael Wacha (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Enrique Hernández (Red Sox): Hip, D10
- Matthew Barnes (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Matthew Strahm (Red Sox): Wrist, D15
- Christian Arroyo (Red Sox): Left groin, D10
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Tyler Danish (Red Sox): Elbow, D15
- Joshua Winckowski (Red Sox): COVID-19, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
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