- The Yankees are -125 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Tanner Houck
- Yankees starting pitcher: Domingo Germán
- Watch the game on FOX
The Boston Red Sox (+105) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-125) on Saturday, June 10, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:35pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 32-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 35-30 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -190 | O 8.5 +100 | +105 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +155 | U 8.5 -120 | -125 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 59.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+11.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 43 games (+11.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 23 away games (+10.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Raimel Tapia has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.10 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+8.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 38 games (+8.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 games (+7.70 Units / 69% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+7.60 Units / 20% ROI)
Yankees vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
Yankees vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Connor Wong | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -175 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Anthony Volpe | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Domingo German | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -150 |
| Tanner Houck | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 away games (+8.25 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 64 games (+7.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+6.95 Units / 57% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 51 games (+5.80 Units / 10% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 35 games (+12.30 Units / 31% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 22 of their last 35 games (+10.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 35 games (+8.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 63 games (+6.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 31 games (+5.00 Units / 15% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 32-32 against the Run Line (-5 Units / -5.95% ROI).
- 32-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.05 Units / 1.44% ROI
- 36-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.05 Units / 10.06% ROI
- 26-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.4 Units / -20.28% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 35-30 against the Run Line (+6.45 Units / 8.3% ROI).
- 37-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.15 Units / 5.87% ROI
- 29-34 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.3 Units / -11.66% ROI
- 34-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +2 Units / 2.78% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Tanner Houck has allowed a slugging percentage of just .260 (27 Total Bases / 104 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .419 — 99th Percentile.
8 of Tanner Houck’s 29 breaking pitch strikeouts (28%) were backdoor in 2022 — 5th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 11% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 31% (22/71) against Tanner Houck on non-fastballs this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 22% — third Percentile.
Tanner Houck had a first-pitch strike rate of just 52% (127/244) in 2022 — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — 0 Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Domingo German has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (74/182) when he’s behind in the count this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total CB; League Avg: 11% — 97th Percentile.
Domingo German has thrown his curveball 53% of the time (132/251) with two-strikes this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total CB; League Avg: 19% — 96th Percentile.
Domingo German has thrown his curveball 47% of the time (75/161) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total CB; League Avg: 18% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .150 (22-for-147) against Domingo German’s non-fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .229 — 99th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox were just 6-12 (.333) when tied entering the 8th inning in 2022 — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox were just 5-63 (.074) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Red Sox were just 4-65 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2022 — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Red Sox were just 2-66 (.029) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2022 — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees were 11-41 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Yankees were 10-49 (.169) when trailing entering the 8th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Yankees were 19-20 (.487) when allowing 2 or more home runs in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .293.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .392 (245 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Red Sox are batting .278 at home since the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .790 (4,323 PA’s) at home since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees are batting just .216 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Yankees hitters have drawn 216 walks in 2,027 PA’s (11%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 532 of their 2,389 plate appearances (22%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of .733 (2,673 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .690.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 37 of 562 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 678 times this season — 4th most in MLB.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 357 barreled balls since last season — 2nd most in MLB.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 59% of their games this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Yankees pitchers this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 41% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Judge (Yankees): Toe, D10
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Ian Hamilton (Yankees): Groin, D15
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Harrison Bader (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Greg Allen (Yankees): Hip, D10
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D15
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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