- The Yankees are -120 favorites vs the Red Sox
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello
- Yankees starting pitcher: Clarke Schmidt
- Watch the game on ESPN
The Boston Red Sox (+100) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-120) on Sunday, June 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Red Sox are 32-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 36-30 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 -200 | O 8.5 -115 | +100 |
| Yankees | -1.5 +165 | U 8.5 -105 | -120 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 59.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 away games (+11.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+10.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Raimel Tapia has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.10 Units / 37% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 29 of his last 44 games (+10.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- Enmanuel Valdez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.55 Units / 54% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 19 games (+8.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Under in 28 of his last 38 games (+8.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- Josh Donaldson has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Anthony Rizzo has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 games (+7.70 Units / 69% ROI)
Yankees vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jake Bauers | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +210 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Jake Bauers | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
Yankees vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Verdugo | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Rafael Devers | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jake Bauers | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jose Trevino | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Masataka Yoshida | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Clarke Schmidt | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -155 |
| Brayan Bello | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 away games (+9.25 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 12 away games (+8.05 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 away games (+6.50 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 52 games (+4.80 Units / 8% ROI)
Yankees Best Bets Today:
- The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 36 games (+11.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 24 of their last 36 games (+11.25 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 36 games (+9.90 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 64 games (+7.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+5.55 Units / 15% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 32-33 against the Run Line (-6.7 Units / -7.81% ROI).
- 32-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.05 Units / 0.07% ROI
- 36-27 when betting on the total runs Over for +6 Units / 8.44% ROI
- 27-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.4 Units / -18.57% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Yankees have gone 36-30 against the Run Line (+8 Units / 10.17% ROI).
- 38-28 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.15 Units / 6.91% ROI
- 29-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.35 Units / -12.94% ROI
- 35-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +3 Units / 4.1% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 57% (184/324) against Brayan Bello since last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 89 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Brayan Bello has allowed a slugging percentage of just .208 (21 Total Bases / 101 ABs) on changeups since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 89 total IP; League Avg: .383 — 98th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 13% (9/71) against Brayan Bello this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (81/140) against Brayan Bello this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.
Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 19% (39/202) against Clarke Schmidt in late innings since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 89 total IP; League Avg: 31% — first Percentile.
Clarke Schmidt has not walked any of the 25 batters that he has faced against right-handed batters — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .347 (25 GB hits out of 72 GBs) against Clarke Schmidt with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 89 total IP; League Avg: .245 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 64% (21/33) against Clarke Schmidt — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 98th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are 12-23 (.343) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Red Sox are just 7-15 (.318) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are 5-2 (.714) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 8-92 (.080) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .124.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees are 26-42 (.382) when allowing 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .200.
The Yankees are 11-8 (.579) after a win as underdogs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .415.
The Yankees were 20-24 (.455) when allowing 5 or more runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .195.
The Yankees are 83-20 (.806) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .698.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .391 (253 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .330.
The Red Sox are batting .277 at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .339 (4,323 PA’s) at home since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .358 (1,288 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters have drawn 216 walks in 2,030 PA’s (11%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Yankees are batting just .217 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .257.
Yankees hitters have come to the plate with runners in scoring position in just 536 of their 2,419 plate appearances (22%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Yankees are batting just .194 against LHP over the last 30 days (15 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .260.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Red Sox pitchers have walked 37 of 570 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 57% of their games this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.24 (836.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.05.
The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 357 barreled balls since last season — 2nd most in MLB.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Yankees pitchers this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 41% of the time since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Yankees pitchers have 370 three-pitch strikeouts since last season — 4th most in MLB.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathan Loáisiga (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Scott Effross (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Judge (Yankees): Toe, D10
- James Weber (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Ian Hamilton (Yankees): Groin, D15
- Nestor Cortes (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Harrison Bader (Yankees): Hamstring, D10
- Carlos Rodón (Yankees): Forearm, D60
- Lou Trivino (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Greg Allen (Yankees): Hip, D10
- Zachery Kelly (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Gregory Mills (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- John Schreiber (Red Sox): Side, D15
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Shoulder, D60
- Yu-Cheng Chang (Red Sox): Hand, D10
- Raúl Mondesi (Red Sox): Knee, D60
- Richard Bleier (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Joely RodrÃguez (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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