Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 22

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 22, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Yankees (90-58) are -145 favorites vs the Red Sox (72-76)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Michael Wacha (11-1), 2.60 ERA
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon (13-5), 4.04 ERA
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Boston Red Sox (+120) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-145) on Thursday, September 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Bronx.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 70-76 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 64-81 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox+1.5 -165O 8 -110+120
Yankees -1.5 +140U 8 -110-145

Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Thursday‘s matchup with 57.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 38 of his last 51 away games (+20.80 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 49 away games (+15.95 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 36 of his last 50 away games (+15.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 28 of his last 41 games (+15.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+13.40 Units / 42% ROI)

Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 66 games at home (+16.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+15.15 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 36 of his last 57 games (+13.25 Units / 20% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games (+11.80 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)

Yankees vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +275 0.5 -450
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +340 0.5 -600
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.5 +1150 0.5

Yankees vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 1.5 +180 1.5 -275
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Gleyber Torres 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.5 -200 0.5 +150

Yankees vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 +120 0.5 -165
Anthony Rizzo 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.5 +270 0.5 -450

Yankees vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Jameson Taillon 4.5 +100 4.5 -140
Michael Wacha 4.5 +110 4.5 -155
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 66 games (+8.05 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 74 away games (+6.45 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+4.50 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 16 games (+2.75 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+0.90 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.70 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.90 Units / 50% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.35 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.40 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.95 Units / 33% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 73-71 against the Run Line (-2.15 Units / -1.18% ROI).

  • 70-76 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.45 Units / -7.99% ROI
  • 66-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -10 Units / -6.22% ROI
  • 70-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.9 Units / -1.18% ROI

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 64-81 against the Run Line (-19.6 Units / -11.6% ROI).

  • 90-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -0.15% ROI
  • 70-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -9.2 Units / -5.7% ROI
  • 72-70 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.35 Units / -3.29% ROI

Hitters have swung at 76% of Michael Wacha’s pitches (62/82) with two-strikes this month (3 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — 100th Percentile.

Michael Wacha has not walked any of the 30 batters that he has faced vs left-handed batters this month (3 games) — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Michael Wacha has not walked any of the 75 batters that he has faced this month (3 games) — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of 49% (1,234/2,514) against Michael Wacha in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Jameson Taillon: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .439 (29-for-66) against Jameson Taillon on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .339 — sixth Percentile.

Opponents have a chase percentage of 49% (26/53) against Jameson Taillon in late innings this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Jameson Taillon has walked 10 of 356 right-handed batters (3%) this season — tied for 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 97th Percentile.

Jameson Taillon has a strikeout rate of just 13% (18 SO in 139 PAs) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 21% — sixth Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Red Sox are just 8-30 (.211) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.

The Red Sox are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 5-56 (.082) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Red Sox are just 154-21 (.880) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Yankees are 10-38 (.208) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Yankees are 69-5 (.932) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Yankees are 53-12 (.815) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .711.

The Yankees are 38-36 (.514) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .473.

The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .336 (1,428 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.

The Red Sox are batting .269 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Yankees hitters have drawn 253 walks in 2,007 PA’s (13%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.221 (1,030 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.065.

Yankees hitters have drawn 256 walks in 2,756 PA’s (9%) when leading off an inning since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Yankees hitters are slugging .577 over the past seven days (5 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .383.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.61 (676.0 IP) at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.85.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.2 MPH (3,734 batted balls) this season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 88.6.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Red Sox pitchers over the last 14 days (10 games) — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Yankees pitchers have walked 12 of 99 batters (12%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (11 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Yankees pitchers have won 55% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Albert Abreu (Yankees): Elbow, D15
  • Marwin Gonzalez (Yankees): Head, Day-to-Day
  • Clarke Schmidt (Yankees): Foot, Day-to-Day
  • Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
  • Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Zachary Britton (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • David LeMahieu (Yankees): Toe, D10
  • Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.