Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 23

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 23, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Yankees (91-58) are -250 favorites vs the Red Sox (72-77)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Richard Hill (7-7), 4.69 ERA
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole (12-7), 3.40 ERA
  • Watch the game on Apple TV+

The Boston Red Sox (+200) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-250) on Friday, September 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Bronx.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 70-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 64-82 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox+1.5 -105O 7.5 -120+200
Yankees -1.5 -115U 7.5 +100-250

Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Friday‘s matchup with 65.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 39 of his last 52 away games (+21.80 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 37 of his last 51 away games (+16.80 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 29 of his last 42 games (+16.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 50 away games (+14.95 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 42 games (+11.60 Units / 21% ROI)

Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 66 games at home (+16.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+14.15 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 36 of his last 58 games (+11.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games (+11.80 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)

Yankees vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.5 +1100 0.5
Jose Trevino 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000

Yankees vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Gleyber Torres 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
Jose Trevino 0.5 -200 0.5 +135

Yankees vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Judge 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
Giancarlo Stanton 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Gleyber Torres 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Jose Trevino 0.5 +210 0.5 -300

Yankees vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Gerrit Cole 8.5 +100 8.5 -145
Rich Hill 4.5 +120 4.5 -165
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 70 of their last 129 games (+7.50 Units / 5% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 37 of their last 67 games (+7.05 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games (+3.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+1.75 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.25 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.90 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.35 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 5 games at home (+5.50 Units / 84% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 53% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 74-71 against the Run Line (-1.15 Units / -0.63% ROI).

  • 70-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.45 Units / -8.49% ROI
  • 67-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -9 Units / -5.56% ROI
  • 70-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -3 Units / -1.85% ROI

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 64-82 against the Run Line (-20.6 Units / -12.12% ROI).

  • 91-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 0.23% ROI
  • 71-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.2 Units / -5.05% ROI
  • 72-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.45 Units / -3.94% ROI

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 46% of the time (1,950/4,223) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 41% of the time (1,236/2,982) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 100th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (537/1,219) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 74 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

Rich Hill has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (480/1,080) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total CB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.

Gerrit Cole: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

53% of Gerrit Cole’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 38% (327/858) against Gerrit Cole in non-two strike counts this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 38% (80/213) against Gerrit Cole on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 95th Percentile.

Gerrit Cole has located his pitches away 58% of the time (618/1,057) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Red Sox are just 4-59 (.063) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Red Sox are just 5-11 (.312) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 63-7 (.900) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Red Sox are just 5-57 (.081) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Yankees are 9-45 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Yankees are 10-38 (.208) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

The Yankees are 53-22 (.707) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .527.

The Yankees are 63-10 (.863) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Red Sox are batting .269 at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Red Sox are batting .182 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.

Yankees hitters have drawn 256 walks in 2,021 PA’s (13%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.167 (73 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .701.

The Red Sox have won 40% of games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed 314 barreled balls this season — 4th most in MLB.

Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.14 (558.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.

The Red Sox pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 37% of their games on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Yankees pitchers have won 55% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Yankees pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.6 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.4

Yankees vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Albert Abreu (Yankees): Elbow, D15
  • Clarke Schmidt (Yankees): Foot, Day-to-Day
  • Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Wandy Peralta (Yankees): Back, D15
  • Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
  • Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • David LeMahieu (Yankees): Toe, D10
  • Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.