- The Yankees (92-58) are -155 favorites vs the Red Sox (72-78)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Nicholas Pivetta (10-11), 4.34 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Domingo Germán (2-3), 3.12 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Boston Red Sox (+130) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-155) on Saturday, September 24, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5.
The Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 70-78 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 64-83 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 | O 8.5 -115 | +130 |
| Yankees | -1.5 | U 8.5 -105 | -155 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Saturday‘s matchup with 54.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 40 of his last 53 away games (+22.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 30 of his last 43 games (+17.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 51 away games (+15.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 37 of his last 52 away games (+15.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 away games (+11.45 Units / 32% ROI)
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 66 games at home (+16.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+15.15 Units / 45% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games (+11.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Total Bases Over in 36 of his last 59 games (+10.85 Units / 16% ROI)
Yankees vs Red Sox Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Harrison Bader | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 1.5 +185 | 1.5 -275 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Harrison Bader | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
Yankees vs Red Sox RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Judge | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -145 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Gleyber Torres | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Harrison Bader | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
Yankees vs Red Sox Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Domingo German | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +115 |
| Nick Pivetta | 5.5 +105 | 5.5 -150 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 68 games (+8.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 70 of their last 130 games (+6.50 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.25 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.15 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 games (+0.75 Units / 3% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+9.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 15 games (+8.95 Units / 56% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.35 Units / 29% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+6.80 Units / 41% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 51% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 75-71 against the Run Line (-0.15 Units / -0.08% ROI).
- 70-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.45 Units / -8.99% ROI
- 68-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.95 Units / -4.88% ROI
- 70-68 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.25 Units / -2.6% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 64-83 against the Run Line (-21.75 Units / -12.72% ROI).
- 92-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.6 Units / 0.6% ROI
- 72-72 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.15 Units / -4.37% ROI
- 72-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.7 Units / -4.67% ROI
Nicholas Pivetta: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Pivetta has walked 63 of 707 batters (9%) this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — sixth Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has an ERA of 6.65 (65.0 IP) against division opponents this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.39 — second Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 42% of the time (483/1,144) when behind in the count since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Nick Pivetta has thrown elevated pitches 46% of the time (644/1,387) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 30% — 100th Percentile.
Domingo Germán: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Domingo German since the start of last season is 382.7 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 155 total IP; League Avg: 399.1
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 24% (5/21) against Domingo German this month (4 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 43% — fourth Percentile.
Domingo German has walked 4 of 38 right-handed batters (10%) this month (4 games) — 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 11th Percentile.
Domingo German has thrown off-speed pitches 67% of the time (35/52) when he’s behind in the count this month (4 games) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 9 total NonFB; League Avg: 37% — 97th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 8-30 (.211) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.
The Red Sox are just 63-7 (.900) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Red Sox are just 5-57 (.081) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .118.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees are 9-45 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Yankees are 10-38 (.208) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Yankees are 54-22 (.711) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .527.
The Yankees are 14-8 (.636) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
The Red Sox are batting .265 against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters have an OBP of .337 (1,431 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Yankees hitters have drawn 258 walks in 2,031 PA’s (13%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.154 (72 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Red Sox pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 4.61 (676.0 IP) at home this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.85.
Red Sox pitchers have an ERA of 5.15 (566.1 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.02.
The Red Sox have won 45% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
Yankees pitchers have won 55% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees pitchers have won 45% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Yankees have have still managed to win 52% of the time at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Albert Abreu (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Clarke Schmidt (Yankees): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Wandy Peralta (Yankees): Back, D15
- Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
- Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- David LeMahieu (Yankees): Toe, D10
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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