Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 25

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 25, 2022, 11:37 AM
  • The Yankees (93-58) are -160 favorites vs the Red Sox (72-79)
  • Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello (2-6), 4.75 ERA
  • Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes (10-4), 2.66 ERA
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The Boston Red Sox (+150) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-185) on Sunday, September 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08pm EDT in Bronx.

The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at 1.5 (+120)

The Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Red Sox are 71-79 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 66-85 ATS.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Red Sox+1.5O 8.5 -115+150
Yankees 1.5U 8.5 -105-185

Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s matchup with 57.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Yankees vs Red Sox and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 41 of his last 54 away games (+23.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 44 games (+18.75 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 52 away games (+17.50 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 38 of his last 53 away games (+16.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+12.20 Units / 36% ROI)

Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 66 games at home (+16.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+14.15 Units / 41% ROI)
  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games (+11.80 Units / 64% ROI)
  • Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+9.70 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 69 games (+9.05 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.95 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 77 away games (+2.90 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 48% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.95 Units / 62% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 7 games at home (+7.55 Units / 83% ROI)
  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 53% ROI)

Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 76-74 against the Run Line (-2.1 Units / -1.11% ROI).

  • 71-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.45 Units / -8.88% ROI
  • 69-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.95 Units / -4.82% ROI
  • 71-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.35 Units / -2.62% ROI

Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 66-85 against the Run Line (-22.25 Units / -12.6% ROI).

  • 93-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.7 Units / 0.26% ROI
  • 73-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.2 Units / -4.35% ROI
  • 73-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.85 Units / -4.7% ROI

Brayan Bello has a strike rate of just 62% (223/357) this month (4 games) — tied for 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 16th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 63% (17/27) against Brayan Bello this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.

Brayan Bello has allowed an OBP of just .125 (24 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this month (4 games) — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .277 — 96th Percentile.

Brayan Bello has walked 5 of 52 right-handed batters (10%) this month (4 games) — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 12th Percentile.

Nestor Cortes: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 55% of the time (515/945) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total SL; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.

Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 55% of the time (835/1,526) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total SL; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 62% of the time (248/400) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.

Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 52% of the time (1,338/2,579) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.

Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees

The Red Sox are just 4-60 (.062) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Red Sox are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are just 63-7 (.900) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Red Sox are just 154-22 (.875) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox

The Yankees are 9-45 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Yankees are 55-22 (.714) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .526.

The Yankees are 10-38 (.208) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Yankees are 14-8 (.636) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Red Sox hitters are slugging .431 against RHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .402.

Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .752 (8,264 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.

The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Yankees have answered-back in 36% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.154 (72 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .685.

Yankees hitters are slugging .517 over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .392.

Yankees hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Red Sox pitchers over the last 14 days (11 games) — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Red Sox pitchers have won 36% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 149 times since the start of last season — 3rd most in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Red Sox pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.4

Yankees pitchers have won 78% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this month (20 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Yankees vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Albert Abreu (Yankees): Elbow, D15
  • Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Wandy Peralta (Yankees): Back, D15
  • Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
  • Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • David LeMahieu (Yankees): Toe, D10
  • Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
  • Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
  • Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
  • Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
  • Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
  • James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
  • Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
  • Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
  • Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
  • Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
  • Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
  • Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
  • Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.