- The Yankees (93-58) are -160 favorites vs the Red Sox (72-79)
- Red Sox starting pitcher: Brayan Bello (2-6), 4.75 ERA
- Yankees starting pitcher: Nestor Cortes (10-4), 2.66 ERA
- Watch the game on ESPN
The Boston Red Sox (+150) visit Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees (-185) on Sunday, September 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08pm EDT in Bronx.
The Yankees are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at –1.5 (+120)
The Red Sox vs Yankees Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Red Sox are 71-79 against the spread (ATS), while the Yankees are 66-85 ATS.
Red Sox vs. Yankees Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Red Sox | +1.5 | O 8.5 -115 | +150 |
| Yankees | –1.5 | U 8.5 -105 | -185 |
Red Sox vs Yankees Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Yankees will win Sunday‘s matchup with 57.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Red Sox and Yankees and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Red Sox Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Hits Over in 41 of his last 54 away games (+23.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in 31 of his last 44 games (+18.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 52 away games (+17.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alex Verdugo has hit the Singles Over in 38 of his last 53 away games (+16.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 24 away games (+12.20 Units / 36% ROI)
Best Yankees Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Yankees players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Runs Under in 47 of his last 66 games at home (+16.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games (+14.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- DJ LeMahieu has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games (+11.80 Units / 64% ROI)
- Andrew Benintendi has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 18 games at home (+11.30 Units / 38% ROI)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 21 games (+9.70 Units / 22% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Red Sox Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 69 games (+9.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 41 of their last 77 away games (+2.90 Units / 3% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 48% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Yankees: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.95 Units / 62% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 49% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 7 games at home (+7.55 Units / 83% ROI)
- The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 7 games at home (+7.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 76-74 against the Run Line (-2.1 Units / -1.11% ROI).
- 71-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.45 Units / -8.88% ROI
- 69-71 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.95 Units / -4.82% ROI
- 71-69 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.35 Units / -2.62% ROI
Yankees Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Red Sox have gone 66-85 against the Run Line (-22.25 Units / -12.6% ROI).
- 93-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.7 Units / 0.26% ROI
- 73-73 when betting on the total runs Over for -7.2 Units / -4.35% ROI
- 73-73 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.85 Units / -4.7% ROI
Brayan Bello: Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brayan Bello has a strike rate of just 62% (223/357) this month (4 games) — tied for 9th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 16th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 63% (17/27) against Brayan Bello this month (4 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Brayan Bello has allowed an OBP of just .125 (24 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order this month (4 games) — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .277 — 96th Percentile.
Brayan Bello has walked 5 of 52 right-handed batters (10%) this month (4 games) — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 12th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes: Yankees Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 55% of the time (515/945) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total SL; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 55% of the time (835/1,526) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total SL; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 62% of the time (248/400) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 75 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Nestor Cortes has thrown his slider 52% of the time (1,338/2,579) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total SL; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Yankees
The Red Sox are just 4-60 (.062) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Red Sox are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Red Sox are just 63-7 (.900) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
The Red Sox are just 154-22 (.875) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Yankees Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Yankees are 9-45 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Yankees are 55-22 (.714) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Yankees are 10-38 (.208) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Yankees are 14-8 (.636) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox are batting .275 at home since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Red Sox hitters are slugging .431 against RHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Red Sox hitters have an OPS of .752 (8,264 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Red Sox are batting .276 at home since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Yankees Hitting Stats & Trends
The Yankees have answered-back in 36% of innings after an opponent scores in late innings since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Yankees hitters have an OPS of 1.154 (72 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the past seven days (6 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .685.
Yankees hitters are slugging .517 over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .392.
Yankees hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.91.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Red Sox pitchers over the last 14 days (11 games) — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox pitchers have won 36% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 149 times since the start of last season — 3rd most in MLB.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Red Sox pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Yankees Pitching Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against the Yankees pitchers since the start of last season is 392.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 399.4
Yankees pitchers have won 78% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this month (20 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Yankees pitchers have won 56% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Yankees pitchers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Yankees vs. Red Sox Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Albert Abreu (Yankees): Elbow, D15
- Michael King (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Wandy Peralta (Yankees): Back, D15
- Andrew Benintendi (Yankees): Wrist, D10
- Miguel Castro (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- David LeMahieu (Yankees): Toe, D10
- Francelis Montas (Yankees): Shoulder, D15
- Luis Gil (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Ridings (Yankees): Shoulder, D60
- Chad Green (Yankees): Elbow, D60
- Matthew Carpenter (Yankees): Foot, D10
- Trevor Story (Red Sox): Heel, D10
- James Paxton (Red Sox): Elbow, D60
- Christopher Sale (Red Sox): Finger, D60
- Tanner Houck (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Eric Hosmer (Red Sox): Back, D10
- Franchy Cordero (Red Sox): Ankle, D60
- Garrett Whitlock (Red Sox): Hip, D15
- Nathan Eovaldi (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
- Josh Taylor (Red Sox): Back, D60
- Kutter Crawford (Red Sox): Shoulder, D15
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