- The Astros are -120 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene
- Astros starting pitcher: Brandon Bielak
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Cincinnati Reds (+100) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-120) on Saturday, June 17, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Reds vs Astros Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 35-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 35-35 ATS.
Reds vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -200 | O 8 -105 | +100 |
| Astros | -1.5 +165 | U 8 -115 | -120 |
Reds vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 58.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt McLain has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 24 games (+13.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 24 of his last 39 games (+11.55 Units / 29% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+11.30 Units / 36% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+11.05 Units / 48% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+9.95 Units / 10% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 23 games (+10.80 Units / 22% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 16 games (+9.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 44 games (+8.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Runs Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+8.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 44 games (+7.65 Units / 12% ROI)
Astros vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Astros vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Astros vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
Astros vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bielak | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -135 |
| Hunter Greene | 6.5 -135 | 6.5 +105 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 48 games (+14.65 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 69 games (+12.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 19 away games (+10.05 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 41 of their last 70 games (+7.85 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 36 of their last 63 games (+6.70 Units / 10% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 39 games (+13.90 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games (+9.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 35 games (+8.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+8.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 35 games (+5.55 Units / 9% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 42-28 against the Run Line (+11.75 Units / 13.23% ROI).
- 35-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.25 Units / 9.69% ROI
- 39-31 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.45 Units / 7.14% ROI
- 31-39 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.05 Units / -15.5% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 35-35 against the Run Line (-3.05 Units / -3.34% ROI).
- 39-31 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.95 Units / -3.61% ROI
- 33-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.85 Units / -8.86% ROI
- 36-33 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.25 Units / -0.33% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Greene has struck out 35% (149/420) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 91 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene had a first-pitch strike rate of 88% (22/25) — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 63% — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has struck out 36% (53/146) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has a strikeout rate of 33% (97 SO in 292 PAs) this season — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of 65% (67/103) against Brandon Bielak on pitches in the strike zone this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 46% — 0 Percentile.
Brandon Bielak has a first-pitch strike rate of just 46% (25/55) — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Brandon Bielak has allowed a slugging percentage of .905 (19 Total Bases / 21 ABs) vs left-handed batters — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .387 — first Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting .476 (10-for-21) against Brandon Bielak — highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .241 — first Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Reds are just 25-23 (.521) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Reds are 7-28 (.200) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .105.
The Reds are just 19-45 (.297) after a road loss since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .450.
The Reds were just 17-21 (.447) when hitting 2 or more home runs in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Astros are 67-7 (.905) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
The Astros are 63-12 (.840) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Astros are 44-29 (.603) after a road win since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .490.
The Astros are just 1-5 (.167) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Reds hitters are slugging just .371 against RHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .397.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 25% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 45% this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 445 strikeouts in 2,558 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 825 strikeouts in 4,639 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 124 strikeouts in 708 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros have won 92% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 35% against Reds pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have won 48% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Reds pitchers have walked 866 of 8,950 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .303 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Astros pitchers have allowed innings of 3+ runs in 3% of innings played this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 6%.
Astros vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D15
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Oblique, D10
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Calf, D15
- William Myers (Reds): Kidney Stones, D10
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Derek Law (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Wrist, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D60
- Stuart Fairchild (Reds): Neck, Day-to-Day
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