- The Astros are -150 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Luke Weaver
- Astros starting pitcher: Ronel Blanco
- Watch the game on SportsNet SW
The Cincinnati Reds (+125) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (-150) on Sunday, June 18, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston.
The Astros are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Reds vs Astros Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 36-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 35-36 ATS.
Reds vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -160 | O 9 -105 | +125 |
| Astros | -1.5 +135 | U 9 -115 | -150 |
Reds vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 66.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Astros and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt McLain has hit the Hits Over in 22 of his last 25 games (+14.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+12.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+12.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+12.05 Units / 50% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 45 games (+10.95 Units / 11% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jose Abreu has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 45 games (+9.60 Units / 11% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 16 games (+9.05 Units / 57% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 45 games (+8.65 Units / 13% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the RBIs Under in 19 of his last 24 games (+8.40 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jose Abreu has hit the Total Bases Under in 35 of his last 50 games (+8.25 Units / 9% ROI)
Astros vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Astros vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Astros vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Jose Abreu | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Astros vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Luke Weaver | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +115 |
| Ronel Blanco | 4.5 -165 | 4.5 +130 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 49 games (+15.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 70 games (+13.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 20 away games (+11.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 42 of their last 71 games (+9.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 64 games (+7.70 Units / 11% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 25 of their last 40 games (+12.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games at home (+9.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 48 games (+8.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 36 games (+7.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 36 games (+4.35 Units / 7% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 43-28 against the Run Line (+12.75 Units / 14.06% ROI).
- 36-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.25 Units / 10.88% ROI
- 40-31 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.45 Units / 8.32% ROI
- 31-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.05 Units / -16.57% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 35-36 against the Run Line (-4.05 Units / -4.39% ROI).
- 39-32 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.15 Units / -4.65% ROI
- 34-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.85 Units / -7.45% ROI
- 36-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.25 Units / -1.61% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luke Weaver has walked 4 of 22 batters (18%) over the past seven days (1 games) — 4th highest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 7% — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .313 (36-for-115) against Luke Weaver this season — 7th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: .251 — fifth Percentile.
Luke Weaver has struck out just 15% (16/104) of left-handed batters he faced this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 27 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 12th Percentile.
Luke Weaver has a first-pitch strike rate of 78% (18/23) over the past seven days (1 games) — 2nd highest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 63% — 98th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ronel Blanco has a strike rate of just 54% (69/127) in two strike counts this season — lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 65% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .364 (20-for-55) against Ronel Blanco this season — 3rd highest among in MLB; League Avg: .233 — second Percentile.
Ronel Blanco has allowed an OBP of .444 (63 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: .306 — first Percentile.
Ronel Blanco has located his fastball up for a strike just 40% (35/87) of the time this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 59% — 0 Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Reds are just 25-23 (.521) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Reds are just 28-35 (.444) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .647.
The Reds are just 19-45 (.297) after a road loss since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .449.
The Reds are 9-23 (.281) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .145.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Astros are just 1-5 (.167) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .452.
The Astros are just 2-18 (.100) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
The Astros are 98-9 (.916) when scoring 5 or more runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Astros are 67-7 (.905) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .730.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 25% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Reds are batting .399 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .352.
Reds hitters are slugging just .192 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 445 strikeouts in 2,558 PA’s (17%) against LHP since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros have won 92% of road games in which they have scored three or more runs in an inning since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Astros hitters have just 825 strikeouts in 4,639 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 33% against Reds pitchers over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .284 against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .303 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Reds pitchers have won 50% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 30% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 33% of their games on the road since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Astros vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Luis Garcia (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Oblique, D10
- José Urquidy (Astros): Shoulder, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Calf, D15
- William Myers (Reds): Kidney Stones, D10
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Derek Law (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D60
- Stuart Fairchild (Reds): Neck, Day-to-Day
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