- The Braves are -250 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Luis Cessa
- Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright
- Watch the game on BSSE
The Cincinnati Reds (+195) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-250) on Tuesday, April 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:20pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Reds vs Braves Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 4-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 5-6 ATS.
Reds vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 +100 | O 9 -115 | +195 |
| Braves | -1.5 -120 | U 9 -105 | -250 |
Reds vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 51.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- No trends found
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 80% ROI)
- Eddie Rosario has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Marcell Ozuna has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.05 Units / 45% ROI)
Braves vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Braves vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Braves vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -450 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.25 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+4.05 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.90 Units / 29% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.45 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+2.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 3 of their last 4 games (+1.90 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 games (+1.70 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.45 Units / 13% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 6-3 against the Run Line (+3.25 Units / 28.63% ROI).
- 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.6 Units / -5.91% ROI
- 5-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.75 Units / 7.61% ROI
- 4-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.4 Units / -14.07% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 5-6 against the Run Line (-0.7 Units / -5.22% ROI).
- 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 9.83% ROI
- 5-6 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.7 Units / -14.11% ROI
- 6-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.35 Units / 2.88% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Cessa has thrown low pitches 60% of the time (371/621) on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2021 season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 42% — 97th Percentile.
Luis Cessa has a strike rate of just 62% (375/607) in two strike counts since the 2021 season — 14th lowest among among 143 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 66% — ninth Percentile.
Luis Cessa has struck out just 18% (60/341) of right-handed batters he faced since the 2021 season — 12th lowest among among 145 qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 25% — eighth Percentile.
Luis Cessa has a strikeout rate of just 8% (2 SO in 24 PAs) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 3 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 55% (275/501) against Kyle Wright in 2022 — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 95th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (149/240) against Kyle Wright since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 57% (108/188) against Kyle Wright in two-strike counts in 2022 — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 97th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 62% (149/240) against Kyle Wright in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Reds are just 16-27 (.372) when scoring in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .658.
The Reds were just 14-24 (.368) when scoring in the first inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Reds are just 19-22 (.463) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .711.
The Reds were just 17-21 (.447) when hitting 2 or more home runs in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Braves are 12-3 (.800) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 22-16 (.579) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .289.
The Braves were 21-15 (.583) when allowing 2 or more home runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Braves were 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Reds are batting just .300 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Reds are batting .222 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .156.
The Reds won just 57% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .307 with two-strikes in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Braves hitters are slugging .478 on pitches 95 mph or greater since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .384.
Braves hitters slugged .443 against RHP in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .789 (1,763 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .717.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 648 of 6,571 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,265 of 12,770 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers walked 612 of 6,220 batters (10%) in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .304 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .249.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers in 2022 — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) in 2022 (; League Avg: 117.3).
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Michael Harris II (Braves): Back, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Max Fried (Braves): Left Hamstring, D15
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
- Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D10
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
- Luke Weaver (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D15
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