- The Brewers are -225 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Robert Dugger (0-0), 4.50 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Eric Lauer (7-3), 3.74 ERA
- Watch the game on Apple TV+
The Cincinnati Reds (+180) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-225) on Friday, August 5, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Reds vs Brewers Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 42-62 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 44-61 ATS.
Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -115 | O 8.5 +100 | +180 |
| Brewers | -1.5 -105 | U 8.5 -120 | -225 |
Reds vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s matchup with 53.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 26 games (+11.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 35 away games (+10.10 Units / 17% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+9.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 16 away games (+9.30 Units / 55% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- Kolten Wong has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.35 Units / 37% ROI)
- Kolten Wong has hit the Total Bases Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+10.20 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.10 Units / 44% ROI)
- Jace Peterson has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.35 Units / 62% ROI)
Brewers vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Brewers vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Christian Yelich | 1.5 +180 | 1.5 -275 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +155 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
Brewers vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -175 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eric Lauer | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 76 games (+15.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 27 games (+10.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 78 games (+9.10 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 18 of their last 29 away games (+7.50 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+6.90 Units / 33% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 49 of their last 85 games (+15.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 85 games (+11.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 44 games (+10.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+5.95 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.00 Units / 23% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 50-54 against the Run Line (-9.8 Units / -7.53% ROI).
- 42-62 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.8 Units / -8.78% ROI
- 54-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.55 Units / -0.48% ROI
- 49-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.55 Units / -9.24% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 44-61 against the Run Line (-21.75 Units / -16.99% ROI).
- 57-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.3 Units / -9.15% ROI
- 54-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.7 Units / 3.19% ROI
- 46-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.65 Units / -10.94% ROI
Robert Dugger: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Eric Lauer: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% (100/293) against Eric Lauer this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — sixth Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 32% (81/254) against Eric Lauer this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fifth Percentile.
Eric Lauer has allowed a slugging percentage of .438 (173 Total Bases / 395 ABs) this season — 10th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — 15th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 21% (33/159) against Eric Lauer with runners in scoring position this season — tied for 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 18th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are just 32-7 (.821) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Reds are 7-4 (.636) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are 9-6 (.600) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 8-28 (.222) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 31-28 (.525) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .477.
The Brewers are just 5-24 (.172) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .280.
The Brewers are 12-5 (.706) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 40-7 (.851) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .277 (462 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
The Reds are batting just .238 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Reds hitters are slugging just .330 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Reds hitters are slugging just .376 against RHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .375 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
The Brewers are batting just .227 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters have 257 strikeouts in 1,055 PA’s (24%) against LHP this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Brewers are batting just .319 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 55 double plays in 801 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Reds have allowed 1.76 runs per game (183/104) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.27.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .301 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
- Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Omar Narváez (Brewers): Quad, D10
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Jace Peterson (Brewers): Left Elbow, D10
- Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, Day-to-Day
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
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