Reds vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 6

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 06, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Brewers (58-48) are -190 favorites vs the Reds (42-63)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Nicholas Lodolo (3-3), 4.22 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Ashby (2-9), 4.12 ERA
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Cincinnati Reds (+155) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-190) on Saturday, August 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).

The Reds vs Brewers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 42-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 45-61 ATS.

Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -135O 8 -115+155
Brewers -1.5 +110U 8 -105-190

Reds vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s matchup with 65.6% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Brewers vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 36 away games (+11.10 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+10.30 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 23 games (+9.95 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+8.80 Units / 48% ROI)

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Kolten Wong has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.35 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+10.35 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.10 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Luis Urias has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 52% ROI)

Brewers vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Christian Yelich 0.5 +450 0.5 -1000
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 +270 0.5 -450
Keston Hiura 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Luis Urias 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000

Brewers vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Christian Yelich 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Keston Hiura 0.5 +105 0.5 -150
Luis Urias 0.5 -175 0.5 +120

Brewers vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Christian Yelich 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Keston Hiura 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Luis Urias 0.5 +190 0.5 -275

Brewers vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Aaron Ashby 5.5 -145 5.5 +100
Nick Lodolo 6.5 -155 6.5 +110
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 77 games (+14.45 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 28 games (+9.15 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 79 games (+8.00 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.95 Units / 51% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 18 of their last 30 away games (+6.30 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 50 of their last 86 games (+16.45 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 45 games (+11.00 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 86 games (+10.30 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 18 games at home (+6.95 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.00 Units / 25% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 50-55 against the Run Line (-10.9 Units / -8.3% ROI).

  • 42-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.8 Units / -9.59% ROI
  • 54-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.75 Units / -1.5% ROI
  • 50-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.55 Units / -8.29% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 45-61 against the Run Line (-20.75 Units / -16.07% ROI).

  • 58-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.3 Units / -8.43% ROI
  • 54-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.5 Units / 2.13% ROI
  • 47-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.65 Units / -9.99% ROI

The last hit on a Nick Lodolo breaking pitch was July 16th. Hitters are 0 for their last 15 in ABs ending on his breaking pitches. — Pablo Lopez has the longest active streak at 25.

Nick Lodolo has allowed no extra-base hits in his last 9.0 innings pitched — Jason Foley has the longest active streak at 27.2.

The last hit on a Nick Lodolo curveball was July 16th. Hitters are 0 for their last 15 in ABs ending on his curveball. — Pablo Lopez has the longest active streak at 25.

Nick Lodolo has a strikeout rate of 59% (16 SO in 27 PAs) with two-strikes — 8th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 92nd Percentile.

Aaron Ashby: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hitters have swung at 57% of Aaron Ashby’s pitches in the zone (412/725) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (124/222) against Aaron Ashby this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 57% (103/180) against Aaron Ashby this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 95th Percentile.

Aaron Ashby has a strikeout rate of 47% (61 SO in 130 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 9th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 52 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 92nd Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Reds are just 32-7 (.821) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.

The Reds are just 18-31 (.367) on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .476.

The Reds are just 8-28 (.222) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.

The Reds are just 7-22 (.241) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Brewers are just 5-24 (.172) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .281.

The Brewers are 12-5 (.706) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are 95-26 (.785) when hitting 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Brewers are 147-11 (.930) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .913.

Reds hitters have an OPS of just .614 (1,797 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.

Reds hitters are slugging just .327 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.

Reds hitters have an OPS of just .433 (122 PA’s) in innings 7-9 over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .685.

Reds hitters have an OBP of just .280 (471 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.

The Brewers are batting just .227 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Brewers hitters are slugging just .375 against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

The Brewers are batting just .317 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 55 double plays in 813 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,011 of 10,247 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .279 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .236.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Brewers vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
  • Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Omar Narváez (Brewers): Quad, D10
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Jace Peterson (Brewers): Left Elbow, D10
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.