Reds vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 7

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 07, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Brewers (58-49) are -300 favorites vs the Reds (43-63)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft (5-2), 4.11 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes (8-5), 2.49 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSWI

The Cincinnati Reds (+230) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-300) on Sunday, August 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).

The Reds vs Brewers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 43-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 45-62 ATS.

Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 +110O 7.5 -120+230
Brewers -1.5 -135U 7.5 +100-300

Reds vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 56.9% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Brewers vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+11.30 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+10.95 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 22 games (+10.10 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.55 Units / 46% ROI)

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Kolten Wong has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.35 Units / 38% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+10.35 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.10 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Keston Hiura has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+9.95 Units / 77% ROI)

Brewers vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christian Yelich 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Kolten Wong 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Luis Urias 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Rowdy Tellez 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

Brewers vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Kolten Wong 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Luis Urias 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Rowdy Tellez 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Tyrone Taylor 0.5 -185 0.5 +125

Brewers vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christian Yelich 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 +125 0.5 -185
Kolten Wong 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Luis Urias 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Rowdy Tellez 0.5 +150 0.5 -225

Brewers vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Graham Ashcraft 4.5 -130 4.5 -110
Corbin Burnes 8.5 -110 8.5 -130
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 78 games (+15.45 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 29 games (+10.70 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 80 games (+9.00 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+7.30 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.90 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 51 of their last 87 games (+17.45 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 87 games (+11.30 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+9.85 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+5.35 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+2.30 Units / 13% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 51-55 against the Run Line (-9.9 Units / -7.47% ROI).

  • 43-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.25 Units / -8.14% ROI
  • 55-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.75 Units / -0.64% ROI
  • 50-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.6 Units / -9.12% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 45-62 against the Run Line (-21.75 Units / -16.71% ROI).

  • 58-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -16 Units / -9.34% ROI
  • 55-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.5 Units / 2.95% ROI
  • 47-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.7 Units / -10.79% ROI

Graham Ashcraft has allowed a slugging percentage of just .247 (36 Total Bases / 146 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: .385 — 98th Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft has allowed a .523 SLG vs right-handed batters (ninth worst)– sixth Percentile and just .247 vs left-handed batters this season (second best among non-qualified SPs)– 98th Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft has thrown fastballs 74% of the time (441/592) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (102/604) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.

Corbin Burnes: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 39% (211/542) against Corbin Burnes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 65% of the time (338/517) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 37% (365/979) against Corbin Burnes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.

Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 70% of the time (113/162) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Reds are just 33-7 (.825) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.

The Reds are just 7-22 (.241) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.

The Reds are 7-4 (.636) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Reds are just 31-7 (.816) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Brewers are 12-5 (.706) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are 31-28 (.525) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .474.

The Brewers are 147-11 (.930) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Brewers are 63-14 (.818) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .732.

Reds hitters are slugging just .334 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.

Reds hitters have an OBP of just .281 (477 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.

Reds hitters have an OPS of just .623 (1,839 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.

The Reds are batting just .223 on the road this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.

The Brewers are batting just .227 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Brewers hitters have 262 strikeouts in 1,085 PA’s (24%) against LHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Brewers hitters have 632 strikeouts in 2,624 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Brewers are batting just .318 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 55 double plays in 824 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,016 of 10,287 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have walked 399 of 4,088 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Brewers pitchers have won 45% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
  • Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Omar Narváez (Brewers): Quad, D10
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Jace Peterson (Brewers): Left Elbow, D10
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.