- The Brewers (58-49) are -300 favorites vs the Reds (43-63)
- Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft (5-2), 4.11 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes (8-5), 2.49 ERA
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Cincinnati Reds (+230) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-300) on Sunday, August 7, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Reds vs Brewers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 43-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 45-62 ATS.
Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 +110 | O 7.5 -120 | +230 |
| Brewers | -1.5 -135 | U 7.5 +100 | -300 |
Reds vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 56.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 21 of his last 28 games (+11.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+10.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 22 games (+10.10 Units / 38% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 away games (+9.55 Units / 46% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Kolten Wong has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.35 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 46% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 18 games at home (+10.35 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.10 Units / 44% ROI)
- Keston Hiura has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 13 games (+9.95 Units / 77% ROI)
Brewers vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Brewers vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Tyrone Taylor | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +125 |
Brewers vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -185 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Luis Urias | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Rowdy Tellez | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
Brewers vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Graham Ashcraft | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 -110 |
| Corbin Burnes | 8.5 -110 | 8.5 -130 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 78 games (+15.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 29 games (+10.70 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 45 of their last 80 games (+9.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 21 games (+7.30 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.90 Units / 40% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 51 of their last 87 games (+17.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 87 games (+11.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 46 games (+9.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 19 games at home (+5.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+2.30 Units / 13% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 51-55 against the Run Line (-9.9 Units / -7.47% ROI).
- 43-63 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.25 Units / -8.14% ROI
- 55-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.75 Units / -0.64% ROI
- 50-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.6 Units / -9.12% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 45-62 against the Run Line (-21.75 Units / -16.71% ROI).
- 58-49 when betting on the Moneyline for -16 Units / -9.34% ROI
- 55-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.5 Units / 2.95% ROI
- 47-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.7 Units / -10.79% ROI
Douglas Ashcraft: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Graham Ashcraft has allowed a slugging percentage of just .247 (36 Total Bases / 146 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: .385 — 98th Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has allowed a .523 SLG vs right-handed batters (ninth worst)– sixth Percentile and just .247 vs left-handed batters this season (second best among non-qualified SPs)– 98th Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has thrown fastballs 74% of the time (441/592) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (102/604) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 53 total IP; League Avg: 25% — first Percentile.
Corbin Burnes: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 39% (211/542) against Corbin Burnes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 65% of the time (338/517) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 37% (365/979) against Corbin Burnes this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 70% of the time (113/162) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are just 33-7 (.825) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.
The Reds are just 7-22 (.241) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .338.
The Reds are 7-4 (.636) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 31-7 (.816) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 12-5 (.706) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 31-28 (.525) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .474.
The Brewers are 147-11 (.930) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — tied for 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Brewers are 63-14 (.818) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .732.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .334 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .281 (477 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .623 (1,839 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are batting just .223 on the road this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .227 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters have 262 strikeouts in 1,085 PA’s (24%) against LHP this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters have 632 strikeouts in 2,624 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Brewers are batting just .318 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 55 double plays in 824 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,016 of 10,287 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 399 of 4,088 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have won 45% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
- Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Omar Narváez (Brewers): Quad, D10
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Jace Peterson (Brewers): Left Elbow, D10
- Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
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