- The Reds are -105 favorites vs the Brewers
- Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft
- Brewers starting pitcher: Colin Rea
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Cincinnati Reds (-105) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-115) on Monday, July 24, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Reds vs Brewers Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 55-46 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 48-52 ATS.
Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +150 | O 9 +100 | -105 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -185 | U 9 -120 | -115 |
Reds vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 52.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 50 games (+14.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Singles Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+11.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in his last 9 games (+10.95 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 26 games (+9.30 Units / 34% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.85 Units / 55% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 45 games (+12.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 23 of his last 34 games (+10.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+8.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+8.80 Units / 59% ROI)
Brewers vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
Brewers vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 1.5 +160 | 1.5 -210 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Brewers vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jesse Winker | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
Brewers vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Colin Rea | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Graham Ashcraft | 4.5 +130 | 4.5 -165 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 64 of their last 100 games (+25.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 79 games (+24.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 70 games (+19.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 31 away games (+11.65 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 70 games (+11.45 Units / 15% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 32 games (+11.35 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 78 games (+10.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 94 games (+10.05 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 21 games (+8.45 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 46 of their last 78 games (+8.35 Units / 9% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 64-37 against the Run Line (+24.65 Units / 18.92% ROI).
- 55-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.45 Units / 15.78% ROI
- 55-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.7 Units / 4.23% ROI
- 46-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.3 Units / -12.85% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 48-52 against the Run Line (-8.05 Units / -6.37% ROI).
- 55-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.1 Units / 4.99% ROI
- 42-54 when betting on the total runs Over for -17.95 Units / -16.19% ROI
- 54-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.9 Units / 7.23% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Graham Ashcraft has a first-pitch strike rate of just 25% (6/24) over the past seven days (1 games) — lowest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has a first-pitch strike rate of just 39% (18/46) over the last 14 days (2 games) — lowest in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has an ERA of 7.71 (79.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 104 total IP; League Avg: 3.96 — 0 Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has a first-pitch strike rate of just 39% (18/46) — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 63% — first Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Colin Rea has allowed an OPS of just .460 (65 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: .761 — 99th Percentile.
Colin Rea has not allowed a walk in his last 61 PAs against a RHH dating back to June 14th — Austin Gomber has the longest active streak at 123.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 17% (23/135) against Colin Rea this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 54% (73/135) against Colin Rea this season — 12th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 92nd Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are 19-32 (.373) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .217.
The Reds are 21-8 (.724) after a win as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .596.
The Reds are just 10-15 (.400) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
The Reds are just 33-38 (.465) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .643.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 28-14 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 9-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .788.
The Brewers are 12-4 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 0-41 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .324 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.
The Reds are batting .260 on the road this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .244.
The Reds have a winning percentage of 57% on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .333 (2,854 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .220 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Brewers are batting just .225 against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .459 (2,061 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
Brewers hitters have 683 strikeouts in 2,617 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 990 of 10,171 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have won 54% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .301 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 2.48 (80.0 IP) over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.54.
The Brewers have allowed 2.56 runs per game (23/9) over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.74.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 40% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (9 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brian Anderson (Brewers): Back, D10
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Forearm, D10
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Kevin Newman (Reds): Gastritis, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D15
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Shoulder, D15
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