- The Brewers are -150 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Andrew Abbott
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Cincinnati Reds (+125) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-150) on Tuesday, July 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Reds vs Brewers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 55-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 48-53 ATS.
Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -160 | O 8 -110 | +125 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -110 | -150 |
Reds vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 67.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Joey Votto has hit the Singles Under in his last 13 games (+13.00 Units / 55% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+12.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in his last 10 games (+11.95 Units / 54% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+10.35 Units / 94% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 40 games (+10.05 Units / 23% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 46 games (+13.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 24 games (+11.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 24 of his last 35 games (+11.45 Units / 26% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+9.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Brice Turang has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.50 Units / 44% ROI)
Brewers vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -900 |
| Victor Caratini | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Brewers vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
| Victor Caratini | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +105 |
Brewers vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Victor Caratini | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
Brewers vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Corbin Burnes | 8.5 +120 | 8.5 -155 |
| Andrew Abbott | 6.5 +120 | 6.5 -160 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 65 of their last 101 games (+26.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 48 of their last 80 games (+23.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 47 of their last 71 games (+20.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 30 of their last 71 games (+12.45 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 32 away games (+10.40 Units / 27% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 33 games (+12.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 79 games (+11.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 53 of their last 95 games (+11.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 47 of their last 79 games (+9.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games (+7.45 Units / 27% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 65-37 against the Run Line (+25.65 Units / 19.4% ROI).
- 55-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.45 Units / 14.75% ROI
- 55-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.55 Units / 3.17% ROI
- 47-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.3 Units / -11.84% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 48-53 against the Run Line (-9.05 Units / -7.11% ROI).
- 56-45 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.1 Units / 5.75% ROI
- 42-55 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.1 Units / -17.05% ROI
- 55-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.9 Units / 8.07% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 18% (14/77) against Andrew Abbott over the last 30 days (5 games) — lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .093 (4-for-43) against Andrew Abbott over the last 14 days (2 games) — 2nd best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .247 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 23% (31/138) against Andrew Abbott this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 16% (10/62) against Andrew Abbott over the last 30 days (5 games) — 2nd lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 45% — fourth Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastballs down 62% of the time (112/180) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 58% of the time (104/180) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 62% of the time (800/1,292) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has a strikeout rate of 45% (23 SO in 51 PAs) over the last 14 days (2 games) — 2nd best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 22% — 97th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are 21-9 (.700) after a win as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .595.
The Reds are 20-9 (.690) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .496.
The Reds are 8-37 (.178) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Reds are 41-2 (.953) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .898.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 9-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .788.
The Brewers are 29-14 (.674) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 15-8 (.652) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Brewers are 13-4 (.765) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds have scored first in just 33% of their games against division opponents this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .332 (2,883 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 45% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .337 (1,899 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .221 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.04 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .461 (2,087 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .517.
The Brewers are batting just .224 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 998 of 10,207 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .301 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 215 of 2,341 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 40% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 2.43 (89.0 IP) over the last 14 days (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.56.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% over the last 14 days (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brian Anderson (Brewers): Back, D10
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Forearm, D10
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D15
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Shoulder, D15
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