- The Brewers are + favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Edward Lively
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Cincinnati Reds (+) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (+) on Wednesday, July 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at + (+).
The Reds vs Brewers Over/Under is total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 56-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 48-54 ATS.
Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | + + | O + | + |
| Brewers | + + | U + | + |
Reds vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Wednesday‘s MLB matchup with 65.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in his last 11 games (+13.60 Units / 59% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+12.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Singles Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.75 Units / 50% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+9.35 Units / 78% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 35 of his last 47 games (+14.85 Units / 19% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.10 Units / 51% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+12.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.90 Units / 47% ROI)
- Owen Miller has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.70 Units / 31% ROI)
Brewers vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Willy Adames | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Brice Turang | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Brewers vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | 6.5 -150 | 6.5 +115 |
| Freddy Peralta | 7.5 +120 | 7.5 -160 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 66 of their last 102 games (+27.65 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 81 games (+25.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 48 of their last 72 games (+21.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 72 games (+13.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 33 away games (+11.40 Units / 29% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 80 games (+12.35 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 54 of their last 96 games (+12.05 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 34 games (+10.90 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 80 games (+10.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 23 games (+6.45 Units / 23% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 66-37 against the Run Line (+26.65 Units / 19.92% ROI).
- 56-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.7 Units / 15.73% ROI
- 55-48 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.45 Units / 2.16% ROI
- 48-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.3 Units / -10.85% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 48-54 against the Run Line (-10.05 Units / -7.83% ROI).
- 56-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.65 Units / 4.53% ROI
- 42-56 when betting on the total runs Over for -20.2 Units / -17.86% ROI
- 56-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +9.9 Units / 8.89% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ben Lively has thrown elevated pitches 48% of the time (227/469) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 99th Percentile.
Ben Lively has an average spin rate of 1987.0 RPM on fastballs this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 38 total IP; League Avg: 2244.3 — fourth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 31% (30/97) against Ben Lively this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 42% — sixth Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 22% (10/45) against Ben Lively on elevated fastballs this season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 39 total IP; League Avg: 39% — 96th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .209 (9-for-43) against Freddy Peralta on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .338 — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has allowed a slugging percentage of just .253 (25 Total Bases / 99 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .373 — 97th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last eight games dating back to June 6th — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Freddy Peralta has a strike rate of just 59% (353/598) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 64% — fourth Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are just 33-38 (.465) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .642.
The Reds are 21-9 (.700) after a win as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .594.
The Reds are 19-32 (.373) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .218.
The Reds are just 48-54 (.471) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .575.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 9-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .788.
The Brewers are 29-14 (.674) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 13-4 (.765) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 15-8 (.652) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .420.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .332 (2,921 PA’s) against RHP this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .319.
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Reds are batting just .324 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .341.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are slugging just .222 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .270.
The Brewers are batting just .225 against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Brewers are batting just .230 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .368 against LHP since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .405.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 1,002 of 10,248 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .300 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Reds pitchers have won 52% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 38% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Brian Anderson (Brewers): Back, D10
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Forearm, D10
- Wade Miley (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Jesse Winker (Brewers): Back, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D15
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Shoulder, D15
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