- The Reds are -105 favorites vs the Brewers
- Reds starting pitcher: Andrew Abbott
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Cincinnati Reds (-105) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-115) on Friday, July 7, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Reds vs Brewers Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 49-39 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 41-47 ATS.
Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +165 | O 7.5 -110 | -105 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -200 | U 7.5 -110 | -115 |
Reds vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 52.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 47 games (+11.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 41 games (+11.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 away games (+9.70 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 27 games (+17.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+11.60 Units / 22% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+11.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games at home (+9.90 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+9.75 Units / 69% ROI)
Brewers vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Jahmai Jones | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Brewers vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jahmai Jones | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Brewers vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -350 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jahmai Jones | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Brewers vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew Abbott | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -150 |
| Corbin Burnes | 6.5 -145 | 6.5 +105 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 66 games (+26.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 87 games (+21.10 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 42 games (+14.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 57 games (+13.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 81 games (+12.10 Units / 14% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+7.00 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games at home (+6.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 15 of their last 23 games (+5.95 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 9 games (+5.80 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.85 Units / 61% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 55-33 against the Run Line (+20.1 Units / 18.04% ROI).
- 49-39 when betting on the Moneyline for +18.95 Units / 19.67% ROI
- 51-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +10.85 Units / 11.24% ROI
- 37-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -18.85 Units / -19.4% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 41-47 against the Run Line (-10.7 Units / -9.61% ROI).
- 47-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 1.6% ROI
- 39-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -11 Units / -11.24% ROI
- 45-39 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.5 Units / 2.61% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 11% (3/27) against Andrew Abbott — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .155 (20-for-129) against Andrew Abbott this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .250 — 100th Percentile.
Andrew Abbott has allowed a slugging percentage of just .256 (33 Total Bases / 129 ABs) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .418 — 99th Percentile.
Andrew Abbott has allowed an OPS of just .487 (143 PA’s) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .733 — 100th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes has located his fastball inside 66% of the time (256/389) since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 62% of the time (757/1,218) on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown his cutter 58% of the time (667/1,153) in non-two strike counts this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total CUT; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.
37 of Corbin Burnes’ 96 strikeouts (39%) have come on cutters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 4% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are 20-6 (.769) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
The Reds are just 31-36 (.463) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .644.
The Reds are just 34-24 (.586) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
The Reds are just 46-49 (.484) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .573.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 7-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .785.
The Brewers are 25-13 (.658) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 33-26 (.559) after a road loss since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Brewers are 9-3 (.750) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging .537 at home over the last 30 days (11 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .422.
Reds hitters are slugging .392 with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .281.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 45% at home since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .262 (1,825 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .223 against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters are slugging just .222 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Brewers are batting just .148 with two-strikes this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have won 52% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .303 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
The Reds have won 54% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Reds pitchers have walked 939 of 9,685 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 53 of 783 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Brewers have won 36% of road games in which their opponents scored first since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Brewers pitchers have allowed the 1st hardest ball in play hit (114.3 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 116.3).
Brewers vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Forearm, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Edward Lively (Reds): Pec, D15
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D15
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Shoulder, D15
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