- The Brewers are -130 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Luke Weaver
- Brewers starting pitcher: Colin Rea
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Cincinnati Reds (+110) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-130) on Saturday, July 8, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Reds vs Brewers Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 49-40 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 42-47 ATS.
Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -185 | O 9.5 -120 | +110 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +150 | U 9.5 +100 | -130 |
Reds vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 55.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+12.85 Units / 43% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 42 games (+12.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+10.75 Units / 64% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+10.70 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 24 of his last 27 games (+17.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- Brian Anderson has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games at home (+10.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+10.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.20 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jesse Winker has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+9.75 Units / 69% ROI)
Brewers vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
Brewers vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -275 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
Brewers vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +120 | 0.5 -160 |
Brewers vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Colin Rea | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -125 |
| Luke Weaver | 4.5 +110 | 4.5 -145 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 67 games (+25.35 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 55 of their last 88 games (+19.20 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 29 of their last 43 games (+13.70 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 82 games (+13.10 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 58 games (+11.90 Units / 18% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+8.00 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+7.45 Units / 59% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 24 games (+6.95 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.85 Units / 32% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 55-34 against the Run Line (+18.2 Units / 16.06% ROI).
- 49-40 when betting on the Moneyline for +17.95 Units / 18.44% ROI
- 52-37 when betting on the total runs Over for +11.85 Units / 12.15% ROI
- 37-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -20.05 Units / -20.39% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 42-47 against the Run Line (-9.05 Units / -8.05% ROI).
- 48-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 2.49% ROI
- 40-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -10 Units / -10.11% ROI
- 45-40 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.3 Units / 1.34% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luke Weaver has allowed a slugging percentage of .604 (96 Total Bases / 159 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .416 — first Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .333 (53-for-159) against Luke Weaver this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .249 — second Percentile.
Luke Weaver has allowed an OPS of .888 (491 PA’s) since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 99 total IP; League Avg: .710 — first Percentile.
Luke Weaver has allowed a slugging percentage of .759 (22 Total Bases / 29 ABs) on low fastballs this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .431 — fourth Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .160 (4-for-25) against Colin Rea — 6th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .245 — 92nd Percentile.
Colin Rea has allowed an OPS of just .446 (58 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: .757 — 99th Percentile.
Colin Rea has allowed an OBP of just .200 (50 PA’s) over the last 14 days (2 games) — best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: .304 — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 18% (22/121) against Colin Rea this season — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 34 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 96th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are 20-7 (.741) after a road win this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .497.
The Reds are 17-3 (.850) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .685.
The Reds were just 17-21 (.447) when hitting 2 or more home runs in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Reds are just 31-36 (.463) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .644.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are 8-0 (1.000) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .786.
The Brewers are 25-13 (.658) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 0-37 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .051.
The Brewers are 12-8 (.600) after a loss as underdogs this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 44% this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Reds hitters are slugging .672 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .595.
Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 35% this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 26% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .224 against LHP since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
The Brewers are batting just .229 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .254.
Brewers hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.05 pitches per plate appearance since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .304 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
The Reds have won 52% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Reds pitchers have won 46% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
Reds pitchers have won 52% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have walked 55 of 792 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 44% against Brewers pitchers since the 2021 season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Garrett Mitchell (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Darin Ruf (Brewers): Knee, D60
- Justin Wilson (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Labrum, D60
- Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- John Sousa (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Tyrone Taylor (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Ryan Tellez (Brewers): Forearm, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Edward Lively (Reds): Pec, D15
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D15
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Shoulder, D15
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