- The Brewers are -150 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Luis Cessa, 3.00 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Corbin Burnes, 3.85 ERA
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Cincinnati Reds (+125) visit American Family Fields of Phoenix to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-150) on Sunday, March 19, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Brewers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+130).
The Reds vs Brewers Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Reds are 6-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 9-7 ATS.
Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -155 | O 9 -115 | +125 |
| Brewers | -1.5 +130 | U 9 -105 | -150 |
Reds vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s Spring Training matchup with 62.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Reds vs Brewers and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Stuart Fairchild has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Alejo Lopez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 93% ROI)
- Aristides Aquino has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Michael Siani has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kolten Wong has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Andrew McCutchen has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 9 games at home (+3.00 Units / 32% ROI)
- Esteury Ruiz has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.65 Units / 120% ROI)
- Esteury Ruiz has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 57% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 24 games (+16.41 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 70 games (+13.65 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 73 of their last 134 games (+12.70 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+8.30 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 64 away games (+4.25 Units / 5% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 28 of their last 52 games at home (+8.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 10 games (+8.75 Units / 74% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+8.70 Units / 56% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 78 games at home (+6.12 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.95 Units / 51% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 7-7 against the Run Line (-0.3 Units / -1.69% ROI).
- 6-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.45 Units / -2.94% ROI
- 6-8 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.85 Units / -18.51% ROI
- 8-6 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.35 Units / 8.74% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 9-7 against the Run Line (+0.6 Units / 2.76% ROI).
- 7-9 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.7 Units / -19.68% ROI
- 5-9 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.15 Units / -28.93% ROI
- 9-5 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.6 Units / 20.57% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents batted .457 (21-for-46) against Hunter Greene on low fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .277 — 0 Percentile.
Hunter Greene threw 482 fastballs at 100+ MPH last season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene had averaged 98.9 MPH on fastballs last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has at least 6 strikeouts in each of his last eight games — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Corbin Burnes located his fastball inside 71% of the time (168/236) last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 35% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes located his fastball inside 71% of the time (168/236) last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes threw fastballs down 64% of the time (151/236) last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Corbin Burnes has thrown low pitches 61% of the time (897/1,458) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are just 6-78 (.071) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Reds are just 4-86 (.044) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Reds are just 8-31 (.205) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Reds are just 33-48 (.407) at home last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .532.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are just 9-35 (.205) when allowing 10 or more hits last season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .273.
The Brewers are 9-57 (.136) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Brewers are 46-35 (.568) at home last season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Brewers are 9-53 (.145) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds hitters slugged just .485 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Reds have won just 57% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Reds hitters had an OPS of just .676 (5,978 PA’s) last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .706.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters had a swing rate of just 26% on the first pitch of at-bats last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Brewers hitters averaged 4.06 pitches per plate appearance last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Brewers are batting just .226 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters have 810 strikeouts in 3,250 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 1,229 of 12,419 batters (10%) since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers walked 612 of 6,220 batters (10%) last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .299 against Reds pitchers with runners on base last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Reds pitchers last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have won 46% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jason Alexander (Brewers): Shoulder, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
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