Reds vs Brewers Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 11

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 11, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Brewers (74-66) are -275 favorites vs the Reds (56-81)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Justin Dunn (1-2), 4.82 ERA
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Brandon Woodruff (9-4), 3.41 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSWI

The Cincinnati Reds (+220) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-275) on Sunday, September 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).

The Reds vs Brewers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 54-81 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 56-81 ATS.

Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 +110O 8 -115+220
Brewers -1.5 -135U 8 -105-275

Reds vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 65.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Brewers vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+12.85 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+9.65 Units / 46% ROI)

Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tyrone Taylor has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+8.90 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Eric Lauer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.35 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Hunter Renfroe has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.20 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.15 Units / 55% ROI)

Brewers vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Christian Yelich 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
Jace Peterson 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Kolten Wong 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200

Brewers vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Christian Yelich 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Jace Peterson 0.5 -140 0.5 +100
Kolten Wong 0.5 -165 0.5 +120

Brewers vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Andrew McCutchen 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Christian Yelich 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Hunter Renfroe 0.5 +125 0.5 -185
Jace Peterson 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Kolten Wong 0.5 +200 0.5 -300

Brewers vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Woodruff 7.5 +110 7.5 -160
Justin Dunn 3.5 -155 3.5 +110
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 63 of their last 109 games (+17.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 28 of their last 50 away games (+5.20 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.80 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.05 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.70 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 57 games at home (+9.85 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 62 games at home (+7.27 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.80 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.50 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 63-71 against the Run Line (-13.6 Units / -8.24% ROI).

  • 54-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.05 Units / -9.05% ROI
  • 67-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.35 Units / -3.58% ROI
  • 65-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.15 Units / -6.17% ROI

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 56-81 against the Run Line (-32.2 Units / -19.54% ROI).

  • 72-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.2 Units / -10.55% ROI
  • 66-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.9 Units / -3.24% ROI
  • 65-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.5 Units / -4.31% ROI

Justin Dunn has allowed at least one HR in each of his last six games dating back to August 8th — Josiah Gray has the longest active streak at 12.

Justin Dunn has a strike rate of just 56% (45/81) this month (1 games) — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.

Justin Dunn has a strikeout rate of just 5% (1 SO in 20 PAs) this month (1 games) — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 21% — fourth Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 38% of Justin Dunn’s pitches (31/81) this month (1 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.

Brandon Woodruff: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .077 (4 GB hits out of 52 GBs) against Brandon Woodruff with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: .231 — 99th Percentile.

Brandon Woodruff has walked 4 of 22 right-handed batters (18%) this month (2 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 36% (126/354) against Brandon Woodruff on low breaking pitches this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 47% — second Percentile.

Brandon Woodruff has thrown fastballs 62% of the time (1,006/1,628) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Reds are just 11-61 (.153) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.

The Reds are just 19-65 (.226) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Reds are just 42-7 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Reds are just 5-64 (.072) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .116.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Brewers are just 8-30 (.211) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.

The Brewers are 37-27 (.578) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.

The Brewers are 8-49 (.140) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .116.

The Brewers are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Reds hitters are slugging just .500 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .558.

Reds hitters are slugging just .388 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .443.

Reds hitters have an OBP of just .296 (640 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.

Reds hitters have 730 strikeouts in 3,044 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Brewers are batting just .223 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Brewers hitters have 396 strikeouts in 1,523 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.07 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,126 of 11,469 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 34 of 289 batters (12%) this month (8 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 106 of 1,207 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 81 double plays in 1,045 opportunities (8%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Brewers vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Trevor Gott (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
  • Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
  • Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Eric Lauer (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Timothy James Zeuch (Reds): Back, D15
  • Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Biceps, D15
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.