- The Brewers (74-66) are -275 favorites vs the Reds (56-81)
- Reds starting pitcher: Justin Dunn (1-2), 4.82 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Brandon Woodruff (9-4), 3.41 ERA
- Watch the game on BSWI
The Cincinnati Reds (+220) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-275) on Sunday, September 11, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Milwaukee.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-135).
The Reds vs Brewers Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 54-81 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 56-81 ATS.
Reds vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 +110 | O 8 -115 | +220 |
| Brewers | -1.5 -135 | U 8 -105 | -275 |
Reds vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Sunday‘s matchup with 65.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Brewers and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 22 games (+12.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+9.65 Units / 46% ROI)
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Tyrone Taylor has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 47% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games at home (+8.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- Eric Lauer has hit the Strikeouts Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games at home (+8.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- Rowdy Tellez has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.15 Units / 55% ROI)
Brewers vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| Jace Peterson | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Brewers vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Jace Peterson | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
Brewers vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Christian Yelich | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Hunter Renfroe | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jace Peterson | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Kolten Wong | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Brewers vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Woodruff | 7.5 +110 | 7.5 -160 |
| Justin Dunn | 3.5 -155 | 3.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 63 of their last 109 games (+17.80 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 28 of their last 50 away games (+5.20 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.80 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.70 Units / 22% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 57 games at home (+9.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 62 games at home (+7.27 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 63-71 against the Run Line (-13.6 Units / -8.24% ROI).
- 54-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.05 Units / -9.05% ROI
- 67-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.35 Units / -3.58% ROI
- 65-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.15 Units / -6.17% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 56-81 against the Run Line (-32.2 Units / -19.54% ROI).
- 72-65 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.2 Units / -10.55% ROI
- 66-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.9 Units / -3.24% ROI
- 65-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.5 Units / -4.31% ROI
Justin Dunn: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Dunn has allowed at least one HR in each of his last six games dating back to August 8th — Josiah Gray has the longest active streak at 12.
Justin Dunn has a strike rate of just 56% (45/81) this month (1 games) — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 65% — third Percentile.
Justin Dunn has a strikeout rate of just 5% (1 SO in 20 PAs) this month (1 games) — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 21% — fourth Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 38% of Justin Dunn’s pitches (31/81) this month (1 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 4 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.
Brandon Woodruff: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .077 (4 GB hits out of 52 GBs) against Brandon Woodruff with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 149 total IP; League Avg: .231 — 99th Percentile.
Brandon Woodruff has walked 4 of 22 right-handed batters (18%) this month (2 games) — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 36% (126/354) against Brandon Woodruff on low breaking pitches this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 68 total IP; League Avg: 47% — second Percentile.
Brandon Woodruff has thrown fastballs 62% of the time (1,006/1,628) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Reds are just 11-61 (.153) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .200.
The Reds are just 19-65 (.226) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.
The Reds are just 42-7 (.857) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Reds are just 5-64 (.072) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .116.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Brewers are just 8-30 (.211) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.
The Brewers are 37-27 (.578) at home this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .530.
The Brewers are 8-49 (.140) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .116.
The Brewers are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .500 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .558.
Reds hitters are slugging just .388 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .443.
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .296 (640 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .324.
Reds hitters have 730 strikeouts in 3,044 PA’s (24%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .223 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Brewers hitters have 396 strikeouts in 1,523 PA’s (26%) against LHP this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.07 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 1,126 of 11,469 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 34 of 289 batters (12%) this month (8 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 106 of 1,207 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 81 double plays in 1,045 opportunities (8%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Trevor Gott (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Wrist, D60
- Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Shoulder, D15
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Eric Lauer (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Jonathan Davis (Brewers): Elbow, D10
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Timothy James Zeuch (Reds): Back, D15
- Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Biceps, D15
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
- Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
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