- The Cardinals (32-26) are -150 favorites vs the Reds (20-37)
- Reds starting pitcher: Luis Castillo (2-3), 3.545 ERA
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Neil Pallante (1-0), 1.227 ERA
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Cincinnati Reds (+125) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-150) on Friday, June 10, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Reds vs Cardinals Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 20-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 32-26 ATS.
Reds vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -165 | O 8 -115 | +125 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -105 | -150 |
Reds vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Friday‘s matchup with 69.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+9.40 Units / 69% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 14 games (+6.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+5.65 Units / 23% ROI)
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games at home (+10.80 Units / 39% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 16 games at home (+10.15 Units / 63% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+9.35 Units / 75% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+9.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- Harrison Bader has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+7.25 Units / 73% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 29 games (+13.70 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 21 of their last 31 games (+10.30 Units / 30% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 19 of their last 31 games (+8.85 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+7.30 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 31 games (+5.50 Units / 15% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cardinals: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 53 games (+5.60 Units / 8% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.40 Units / 45% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+5.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 27 games at home (+4.00 Units / 14% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 25-32 against the Run Line (-10.05 Units / -14.58% ROI).
- 20-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.9 Units / -22.29% ROI
- 30-26 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.15 Units / 1.83% ROI
- 26-30 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.4 Units / -11.76% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 32-26 against the Run Line (+4.25 Units / 5.63% ROI).
- 32-26 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.85 Units / 2.53% ROI
- 28-27 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -2.98% ROI
- 27-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.85 Units / -6.01% ROI
Luis Castillo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has thrown his changeup 44% of the time (519/1,178) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has located his fastball up for a strike just 50% (425/853) of the time since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 60% — third Percentile.
Luis Castillo has walked 5 of 29 left-handed batters (17%) — 5th highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 8% — seventh Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (198/319) against Luis Castillo since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 107 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 99th Percentile.
Neil Pallante: Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 5% (3/60) against Andre Pallante with runners in scoring position this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 30% — first Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a chase rate of just 17% (26/149) against Andre Pallante this season — lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 30% — 0 Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 67% (30/45) against Andre Pallante this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 44% — 98th Percentile.
Right-handed batters are hitting .333 (19-for-57) against Andre Pallante this season — tied for 7th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .229 — seventh Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Reds are just 0-31 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Reds are just 8-20 (.286) on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Reds are just 0-31 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .074.
The Reds are just 2-121 (.016) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cardinals are just 0-24 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .074.
The Cardinals are 11-2 (.846) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
The Cardinals are 26-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .905.
The Cardinals are 27-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .926.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .571 (990 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .688.
Reds hitters are slugging just .309 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .382.
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .262 (990 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .307.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .347 (4,162 PA’s) at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .322.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have 168 extra-base hits out of 395 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .454 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .408.
The Cardinals are batting just .155 in lefty-lefty matchups since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .228.
Cardinals hitters have an OBP of .333 (488 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 845 of 8,370 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 29 double plays in 445 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.53 (259.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.83.
Reds pitchers have walked 174 of 1,932 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Cardinals pitchers have walked 53 of 516 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 181 of 1,935 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Cardinals pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Cardinals vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Alexander Reyes (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- McKenzie Dickerson (Cardinals): Calf, D10
- Jordan Hicks (Cardinals): Forearm, D15
- Steven Matz (Cardinals): Shoulder, D15
- Jack Flaherty (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Lower Back, D15
- Donovan Solano (Reds): Hamstring, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Back, D10
- Max Schrock (Reds): Calf, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Hand, D10
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D10
- Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): Undisclosed, Day-to-Day
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Michael Moustakas (Reds): Undisclosed, D10
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Jonathan India (Reds): Hamstring, D10
- Tyler Naquin (Reds): Quad, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Undisclosed, D60
- Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Back, Day-to-Day
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