- The Reds are -105 favorites vs the Cardinals
- Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Adam Wainwright
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Cincinnati Reds (-105) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-115) on Sunday, June 11, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:15pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Reds are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Reds vs Cardinals Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 30-35 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 28-37 ATS.
Reds vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +155 | O 8 -105 | -105 |
| Cardinals | +1.5 -190 | U 8 -115 | -115 |
Reds vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 55.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 24 games (+14.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 19 games (+14.15 Units / 54% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 34 games (+12.40 Units / 35% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 34 of his last 46 games (+12.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 games (+12.25 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+14.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Under in 30 of his last 38 games (+13.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.05 Units / 60% ROI)
- Paul DeJong has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+10.85 Units / 40% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the RBIs Over in 18 of his last 31 games (+10.55 Units / 34% ROI)
Cardinals vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
Cardinals vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -105 |
Cardinals vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
Cardinals vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Greene | 6.5 -115 | 6.5 -115 |
| Adam Wainwright | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 39 of their last 65 games (+9.90 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 64 games (+9.35 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 43 games (+9.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 58 games (+8.00 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 away games (+7.15 Units / 43% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 61 games (+14.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 61 games (+11.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+8.50 Units / 37% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+5.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+2.50 Units / 14% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 38-27 against the Run Line (+8.35 Units / 10.27% ROI).
- 30-35 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 2.52% ROI
- 37-28 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.75 Units / 9.51% ROI
- 28-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.65 Units / -17.56% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 28-37 against the Run Line (-13 Units / -15.59% ROI).
- 27-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -23.45 Units / -26.91% ROI
- 31-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.15 Units / -5.8% ROI
- 32-31 when betting on the total runs Under for -2 Units / -2.8% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Greene has an average fastball velocity of 98.9 MPH since last season — tied for highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 89 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has a strikeout rate of 57% (34 SO in 60 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 33% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .461 (35-for-76) against Hunter Greene on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 89 total IP; League Avg: .343 — second Percentile.
Hunter Greene has thrown 641 fastballs at 100+ MPH since last season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adam Wainwright has thrown off-speed pitches 67% of the time (974/1,453) when he’s behind in the count since the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 38% — 100th Percentile.
Adam Wainwright has averaged 88.2 MPH on fastballs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 89 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — second Percentile.
Adam Wainwright has an average fastball velocity of just 87.0 MPH this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — 0 Percentile.
Adam Wainwright had a first-pitch strike rate of just 35% (9/26) — lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 62% — first Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Reds are just 24-23 (.511) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are just 19-45 (.297) after a road loss since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .450.
The Reds are just 1-9 (.100) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 17-28 (.378) after a home win since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .542.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cardinals are just 21-4 (.840) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Cardinals are 24-5 (.828) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 8-1 (.889) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 5-10 (.333) after a road win this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .480.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,181 PA’s) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 23% on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 41% in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
The Cardinals are batting .254 with two outs since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .743 (2,688 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .690.
Cardinals hitters are slugging .458 against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .305 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .292 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Reds pitchers have walked 850 of 8,753 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Reds pitchers since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Cardinals have won just 14% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lars Nootbaar (Cardinals): Back, D10
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Wilking RodrÃguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Back, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Calf, D15
- William Myers (Reds): Kidney Stones, D10
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Derek Law (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Knee, D10
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Wrist, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Henry Ramos (Reds): Hip, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D60
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