- The Cardinals are -175 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Edward Lively
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Jordan Montgomery
- Watch the game on BSMW
The Cincinnati Reds (+145) visit Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-175) on Friday, June 9, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:15pm EDT in St. Louis.
The Cardinals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+115).
The Reds vs Cardinals Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 29-34 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 27-36 ATS.
Reds vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -140 | O 8 -105 | +145 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +115 | U 8 -115 | -175 |
Reds vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 78.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 44 games (+13.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 games (+12.75 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 32 games (+12.20 Units / 36% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.55 Units / 48% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 16 games (+11.45 Units / 72% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Under in 29 of his last 36 games (+14.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Paul DeJong has hit the Runs Under in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Nolan Arenado has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 26 games (+12.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- Tommy Edman has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.70 Units / 47% ROI)
- Nolan Gorman has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 22 games at home (+9.70 Units / 44% ROI)
Cardinals vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Willson Contreras | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
Cardinals vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Willson Contreras | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Cardinals vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nolan Arenado | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Nolan Gorman | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Willson Contreras | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 63 games (+10.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 37 of their last 62 games (+9.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 41 games (+8.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 away games (+6.30 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 56 games (+6.00 Units / 10% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 59 games (+14.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games (+11.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.90 Units / 60% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games at home (+5.75 Units / 33% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.05 Units / 22% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 37-26 against the Run Line (+8.7 Units / 11.07% ROI).
- 29-34 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.25 Units / 1.85% ROI
- 35-28 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.75 Units / 6.91% ROI
- 28-35 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.5 Units / -15.02% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 27-36 against the Run Line (-13.15 Units / -16.15% ROI).
- 26-37 when betting on the Moneyline for -22.8 Units / -27.21% ROI
- 29-32 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.15 Units / -8.88% ROI
- 32-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +0.15 Units / 0.22% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Ben Lively had a strike rate of just 55% (57/104) — 2nd lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 65% — second Percentile.
Ben Lively has a strike rate of just 55% (57/104) over the past seven days (1 games) — lowest in NL over the last week; League Avg: 64% — second Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 44% of Ben Lively’s pitches (199/453) this season — tied for 15th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 10th Percentile.
Ben Lively has allowed a BABIP of .200 vs left-handed batters this season — tied for 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 24 total IP; League Avg: .294 — 97th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed batters are hitting .270 (60-for-222) against Jordan Montgomery this season — 9th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 15th Percentile.
Jordan Montgomery has allowed a slugging percentage of .525 (64 Total Bases / 122 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .357 — first Percentile.
48% of Jordan Montgomery’s fastball strikeouts are located inside this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .270 (33-for-122) against Jordan Montgomery’s non-fastballs this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .216 — 11th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Reds are just 24-23 (.511) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .698.
The Reds are 9-22 (.290) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .137.
The Reds are just 26-35 (.426) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .648.
The Reds are just 1-9 (.100) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cardinals are just 20-4 (.833) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .950.
The Cardinals are 24-5 (.828) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are just 17-4 (.810) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Cardinals are just 2-27 (.069) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .137.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 33% against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
The Reds are batting .259 with two outs this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Reds hitters are slugging just .190 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .213.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 38% on the road since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 41% in lefty-lefty matchups since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .737 (2,660 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .690.
Cardinals hitters have a swing rate of just 40% in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Cardinals hitters have 305 extra-base hits out of 726 total hits (42%) against LHP since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .293 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .307 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
The Reds pitchers have allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (118.6 MPH) this season (; League Avg: 115.8).
Reds pitchers have walked 1,460 of 14,872 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have walked 2 of 95 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 47% against Cardinals pitchers in 2022 — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Lars Nootbaar (Cardinals): Back, D10
- Patrick Naughton (Cardinals): Forearm, D60
- Wilking RodrÃguez (Cardinals): Shoulder, D60
- Tyler O’Neill (Cardinals): Back, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Calf, D15
- William Myers (Reds): Kidney Stones, D10
- Terry Friedl (Reds): Hamstring, D10
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Derek Law (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Knee, D10
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Ankle, D15
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Henry Ramos (Reds): Hip, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D60
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