- The Cubs are -165 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Edward Lively
- Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Cincinnati Reds (+140) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-165) on Tuesday, August 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Reds vs Cubs Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 59-49 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 56-50 ATS.
Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -145 | O 8.5 +100 | +140 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +120 | U 8.5 -120 | -165 |
Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 71.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Reds vs Cubs and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Stolen Bases Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+13.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 21 away games (+12.35 Units / 59% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 15 away games (+11.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+11.20 Units / 34% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+10.30 Units / 29% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 31 games (+19.75 Units / 32% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Over in 24 of his last 30 games (+18.65 Units / 42% ROI)
- Mike Tauchman has hit the Runs Over in 22 of his last 29 games (+17.15 Units / 54% ROI)
- Cody Bellinger has hit the Singles Over in 24 of his last 33 games (+16.60 Units / 47% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Under in 22 of his last 37 games (+14.95 Units / 40% ROI)
Cubs vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
Cubs vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +155 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +110 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Cubs vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -350 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -250 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Joey Votto | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Cubs vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Lively | 4.5 +115 | 4.5 -150 |
| Justin Steele | 5.5 -120 | 5.5 -110 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 70 of their last 107 games (+30.00 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 52 of their last 86 games (+27.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 52 of their last 77 games (+24.55 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 77 games (+16.90 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 38 away games (+12.10 Units / 27% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 41 of their last 71 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 26 of their last 41 games (+9.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 44 games (+9.00 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.85 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.75 Units / 33% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 70-38 against the Run Line (+29 Units / 20.55% ROI).
- 59-49 when betting on the Moneyline for +20 Units / 17.01% ROI
- 57-51 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.15 Units / 0.97% ROI
- 51-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.4 Units / -9.6% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 56-50 against the Run Line (+2.7 Units / 1.98% ROI).
- 53-53 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.3 Units / -1.82% ROI
- 55-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.75 Units / 3.19% ROI
- 46-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.2 Units / -12.24% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 34% (36/107) against Ben Lively this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 23% — second Percentile.
Ben Lively has thrown elevated pitches 48% of the time (249/514) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 41 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 19% (9/47) against Ben Lively on the first pitch of at-bats — 3rd lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 32% — third Percentile.
Ben Lively did not walk any of the 15 batters that he faced against right-handed batters — tied for best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (221/448) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (535/1,104) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 33% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 49% of the time (221/448) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Steele has thrown fastballs 74% of the time (333/448) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 51% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are 21-32 (.396) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Reds are just 10-15 (.400) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .583.
The Reds are 45-2 (.957) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .899.
The Reds are 16-25 (.390) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .277.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are just 2-7 (.222) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 22-30 (.423) after a loss as favorites since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .583.
The Cubs are just 6-39 (.133) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
The Cubs are 30-6 (.833) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have 6 strikeouts in 16 PA’s (38%) against LHP over the past seven days (3 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
The Reds are 24-5 (.828) against the run line (47.1% ROI) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .441.
The Reds are 68-39 (.630) against the run line (17.0% ROI) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .493.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 26% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .303 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .350.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.06 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters have been successful in 89% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.09 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
team pitchers – away
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.2 MPH (2,449 batted balls) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.1.
Cubs pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Cubs pitchers since the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Cubs have won 40% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D60
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D60
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Jonathan India (Reds): Heel, D10
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