- The Cubs are -140 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds vs Cubs Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Reds / Cubs TV Channel: FDOH | MARQ
The Cincinnati Reds (+115) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-140) on Monday, August 4, 2025. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago, IL.
This season, the Reds are 58-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 53-58 ATS.
Reds vs Cubs Starting Pitchers Today:
- Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 8-6, 3.12 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Mike Soroka 3-8, 4.87 ERA
Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -190 | O 7 +100 | +115 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +155 | U 7 -120 | -140 |
Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Monday‘s MLB game with 57.5% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.45 Units / 45% ROI)
- Noelvi Marte has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.40 Units / 28% ROI)
- Nick Lodolo has hit the Strikeouts Over in his last 8 away games (+8.70 Units / 97% ROI)
- Austin Hays has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+8.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 away games (+7.30 Units / 24% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Matt Shaw has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+19.00 Units / 190% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+13.70 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games at home (+11.90 Units / 38% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.80 Units / 30% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.20 Units / 32% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 89 games (+23.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 49 games (+5.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 10 of their last 16 games (+4.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 37 away games (+4.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 7 of their last 10 away games (+3.65 Units / 31% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 53 games at home (+16.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 63 of their last 105 games (+11.00 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 62 of their last 106 games (+10.20 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 53 games at home (+8.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+7.90 Units / 35% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Reds are 59-52 against the Run Line (-0.13 Units / -0.09% ROI).
- 58-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.8 Units / -1.3% ROI
- 42-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -29.94 Units / -24.4% ROI
- 66-42 when betting on the total runs Under for +19.95 Units / 16.1% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 53-58 against the Run Line (-5.63 Units / -4.23% ROI).
- 65-46 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.9 Units / 5.48% ROI
- 56-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.8 Units / 2.31% ROI
- 49-56 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.75 Units / -10.36% ROI
Cubs vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -625 |
| Carson Kelly (CHC) | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -1100 |
Cubs vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| TJ Friedl (CIN) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +140 |
| Carson Kelly (CHC) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
Cubs vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Seiya Suzuki (CHC) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Carson Kelly (CHC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Austin Hays (CIN) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -220 |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Cubs vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Lodolo (CIN) | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -140 |
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 11% (8/74) against Nick Lodolo’s breaking pitches this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .432 (19-for-44) against Nick Lodolo’s low fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .265 — first Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has walked 5% of batters this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 93rd Percentile.
Nick Lodolo has not walked any of the 145 opponent 7-8-9 hitters that he has faced this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mike Soroka walked 16% of left-handed batters in the 2024 season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Mike Soroka has walked 4% of batters when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — 7th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 95th Percentile.
Mike Soroka walked 13% of batters in the 2024 season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 18% (40/218) against Mike Soroka this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 44 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are just 9-24 (.273) when tied entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds were just 8-18 (.308) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2024 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .498.
The Reds were just 5-16 (.238) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 17-35 (.327) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are 29-7 (.806) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .633.
The Cubs are 61-17 (.782) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .638.
The Cubs are 34-5 (.872) when they’ve had 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .742.
The Cubs are 65-46 (.586) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .222 against LHP this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.
The Reds are batting just .129 on pitches out of the zone since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .149.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 46% against LHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 46% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .459 on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.
Cubs hitters are slugging .441 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .402.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of just .241 (267 PA’s) against pitchers who have thrown at least 80 pitches in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Cubs hitters are slugging .445 against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers in the 2024 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 7% of batters this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 15% of batters when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cubs pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 11% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
More MLB Reading:
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The content provided in this blog is intended for entertainment purposes only. All views and opinions expressed are the authors and reflect their individual perspectives on sports, betting, and related topics. This content should not be considered professional betting advice or the official views of BetMGM LLC. Please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know is experiencing issues related to gambling, seek help from a licensed health professional. This blog is not liable for any losses, damages, or consequences resulting from betting activities.
