Reds vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 28

min read
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 28, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Cubs (28-45) are -120 favorites vs the Reds (25-47)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Luis Castillo (2-4), 3.70 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Keegan Thompson (7-2), 3.09 ERA
  • Watch the game on MARQ

The Cincinnati Reds (+100) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-120) on Tuesday, June 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago.

The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).

The Reds vs Cubs Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 25-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 36-37 ATS.

Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -190O 9 -110+100
Cubs -1.5 +155U 9 -110-120

Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 70.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.25 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in his last 7 away games (+8.20 Units / 114% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+7.60 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.20 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.20 Units / 32% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Willson Contreras has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.85 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.80 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.20 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Willson Contreras has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.25 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Jason Heyward has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)

Cubs vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Christopher Morel 0.5 +333 0.5 -600
David Bote 0.5 +425 0.5 -800
Ian Happ 0.5 +400 0.5 -800
Jason Heyward 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200

Cubs vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Christopher Morel 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
David Bote 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Ian Happ 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Jason Heyward 0.5 -160 0.5 +115

Cubs vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Christopher Morel 0.5 +170 0.5 -250
David Bote 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Ian Happ 0.5 +160 0.5 -250
Jason Heyward 0.5 +180 0.5 -275

Cubs vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Keegan Thompson 3.5 -140 3.5 +100
Luis Castillo 5.5 -135 5.5 -105
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 44 games (+14.05 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+8.95 Units / 61% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 56 games (+7.50 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+7.00 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 away games (+6.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 43 of their last 72 games (+14.15 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 46 games (+6.85 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 36 games (+4.70 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+2.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.15 Units / 20% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 32-40 against the Run Line (-13.05 Units / -14.59% ROI).

  • 25-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -17 Units / -21.94% ROI
  • 40-31 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.8 Units / 7.33% ROI
  • 31-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.5 Units / -16.94% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 36-37 against the Run Line (-8.1 Units / -8.47% ROI).

  • 28-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.7 Units / -18.14% ROI
  • 36-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.25 Units / -2.79% ROI
  • 35-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.45 Units / -5.55% ROI

No Matchup notes for this Game

Keegan Thompson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

No Matchup notes for this Game

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Reds are just 24-36 (.400) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

The Reds are just 21-4 (.840) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .923.

The Reds are just 8-37 (.178) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Reds are just 13-24 (.351) on the road this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .488.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Cubs are just 13-90 (.126) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.

The Cubs are just 5-32 (.135) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.

The Cubs are just 3-25 (.107) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.

The Cubs are just 0-36 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.

Reds hitters have an OPS of just .604 (1,336 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .696.

Reds hitters are slugging just .325 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.

Reds hitters have an OBP of .344 (4,379 PA’s) at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .321.

Reds hitters have drawn 53 walks in 743 PA’s (7%) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters have 581 strikeouts in 2,349 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .179 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .351.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 38 double plays in 271 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Cubs have won just 58% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 34 double plays in 560 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.75 (313.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.

The Reds have allowed 1.83 runs per game (132/72) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.

The Cubs have won just 8% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.

The Cubs have won just 12% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.

The Cubs have won just 25% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Todd Smyly (Cubs): Oblique, D15
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Frank J. Schwindel (Cubs): Back, D10
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): COVID, D10
  • Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Finger, D10
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Daniel Norris (Cubs): Finger, D15
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Back, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Hand, D10
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
  • Alexis Díaz (Reds): Bicep, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Undisclosed, D15
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Naquin (Reds): Quad, D10
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60

Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM

At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.

About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.