- The Cubs (28-45) are -120 favorites vs the Reds (25-47)
- Reds starting pitcher: Luis Castillo (2-4), 3.70 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Keegan Thompson (7-2), 3.09 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Cincinnati Reds (+100) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-120) on Tuesday, June 28, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Reds vs Cubs Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 25-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 36-37 ATS.
Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -190 | O 9 -110 | +100 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +155 | U 9 -110 | -120 |
Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 70.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+9.25 Units / 61% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in his last 7 away games (+8.20 Units / 114% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+7.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+7.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 10 away games (+5.20 Units / 32% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Willson Contreras has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+8.80 Units / 21% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+7.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 16 games (+6.25 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jason Heyward has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Cubs vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| David Bote | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Cubs vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| David Bote | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
Cubs vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| David Bote | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jason Heyward | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
Cubs vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Keegan Thompson | 3.5 -140 | 3.5 +100 |
| Luis Castillo | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 -105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 29 of their last 44 games (+14.05 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 13 games (+8.95 Units / 61% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 56 games (+7.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 away games (+7.00 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 16 away games (+6.00 Units / 38% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 43 of their last 72 games (+14.15 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 46 games (+6.85 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 36 games (+4.70 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+2.25 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.15 Units / 20% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 32-40 against the Run Line (-13.05 Units / -14.59% ROI).
- 25-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -17 Units / -21.94% ROI
- 40-31 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.8 Units / 7.33% ROI
- 31-40 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.5 Units / -16.94% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 36-37 against the Run Line (-8.1 Units / -8.47% ROI).
- 28-45 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.7 Units / -18.14% ROI
- 36-35 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.25 Units / -2.79% ROI
- 35-36 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.45 Units / -5.55% ROI
Luis Castillo: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Keegan Thompson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are just 24-36 (.400) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Reds are just 21-4 (.840) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .923.
The Reds are just 8-37 (.178) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Reds are just 13-24 (.351) on the road this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .488.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are just 13-90 (.126) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .265.
The Cubs are just 5-32 (.135) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Cubs are just 3-25 (.107) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
The Cubs are just 0-36 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .604 (1,336 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .696.
Reds hitters are slugging just .325 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .388.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .344 (4,379 PA’s) at home since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .321.
Reds hitters have drawn 53 walks in 743 PA’s (7%) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have 581 strikeouts in 2,349 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .179 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .351.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 38 double plays in 271 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cubs have won just 58% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 34 double plays in 560 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.75 (313.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
The Reds have allowed 1.83 runs per game (132/72) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.29.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs have won just 8% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
The Cubs have won just 12% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Cubs have won just 25% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Todd Smyly (Cubs): Oblique, D15
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Frank J. Schwindel (Cubs): Back, D10
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): COVID, D10
- Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Finger, D10
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Daniel Norris (Cubs): Finger, D15
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Back, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Hand, D10
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
- Alexis Díaz (Reds): Bicep, D15
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Undisclosed, D15
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Naquin (Reds): Quad, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
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