Reds vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 30

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 30, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Cubs (29-46) are -130 favorites vs the Reds (26-48)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft (4-1), 3.26 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Kyle Hendricks (3-6), 4.89 ERA
  • Watch the game on MARQ

The Cincinnati Reds (+110) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-130) on Thursday, June 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago.

The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Reds vs Cubs Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 26-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 37-38 ATS.

Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -165O 10.5 -115+110
Cubs -1.5 +140U 10.5 -105-130

Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Thursday‘s matchup with 53.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+11.45 Units / 67% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in his last 9 away games (+10.35 Units / 108% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.10 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Aramis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games (+7.55 Units / 151% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Singles Over in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 91% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Willson Contreras has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+7.90 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+7.85 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.80 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 games (+7.75 Units / 129% ROI)

Cubs vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Christopher Morel 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
David Bote 0.5 +290 0.5 -500
Ian Happ 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Nelson Velazquez 0.5 +260 0.5 -400

Cubs vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Christopher Morel 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
David Bote 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Ian Happ 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Nelson Velazquez 0.5 -225 0.5 +150

Cubs vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Christopher Morel 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
David Bote 0.5 +135 0.5 -200
Ian Happ 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Nelson Velazquez 0.5 +130 0.5 -185

Cubs vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Kyle Hendricks 3.5 -105 3.5 -140
Graham Ashcraft 4.5 -110 4.5 -125
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 46 games (+13.75 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 52% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 58 games (+7.30 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 22 away games (+6.30 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 away games (+6.05 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 44 of their last 74 games (+13.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 48 games (+6.95 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games (+4.50 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+2.05 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.70 Units / 22% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 33-41 against the Run Line (-13.75 Units / -14.79% ROI).

  • 26-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.95 Units / -21.32% ROI
  • 41-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.6 Units / 6.88% ROI
  • 32-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.6 Units / -16.63% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 37-38 against the Run Line (-7.55 Units / -7.74% ROI).

  • 29-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.95 Units / -17.86% ROI
  • 37-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.45 Units / -2.96% ROI
  • 36-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.55 Units / -5.53% ROI

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 67% (49/73) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 76% (16/21) against Graham Ashcraft — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — 96th Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft has allowed a slugging percentage of just .105 (4 Total Bases / 38 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .421 — 100th Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.2 MPH this season (134 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 88.7

Kyle Hendricks: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Kyle Hendricks has allowed a slugging percentage of .571 (89 Total Bases / 156 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .379 — fourth Percentile.

Kyle Hendricks has averaged 86.7 MPH on fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 93.3 — 0 Percentile.

Kyle Hendricks has an average fastball velocity of just 86.8 MPH this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 93.2 — first Percentile.

Kyle Hendricks has averaged 87.2 MPH on fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: 93.1 — 0 Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Reds are just 21-4 (.840) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.

The Reds are just 6-23 (.207) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.

The Reds are just 0-41 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.

The Reds are just 8-38 (.174) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Cubs are just 0-37 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.

The Cubs are just 3-22 (.120) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.

The Cubs are just 8-35 (.186) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Cubs are just 21-91 (.188) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.

Reds hitters have an OPS of just .618 (1,417 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.

The Reds have a winning percentage of just 35% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Reds hitters are slugging just .334 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.

The Reds are batting just .228 against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 38 double plays in 274 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Cubs are batting just .155 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Cubs hitters are slugging .634 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .576.

Cubs hitters have put just 35% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

The Reds have allowed 1.84 runs per game (136/74) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 35 double plays in 579 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.75 (313.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.

Reds pitchers have walked 900 of 9,036 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Cubs have won just 7% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 32% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Todd Smyly (Cubs): Oblique, D15
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Frank J. Schwindel (Cubs): Back, D10
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): COVID, D10
  • Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Finger, D10
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Daniel Norris (Cubs): Finger, D15
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Back, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Hand, D10
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
  • Alexis Díaz (Reds): Bicep, D15
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Naquin (Reds): Quad, D10
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.