- The Cubs (29-46) are -130 favorites vs the Reds (26-48)
- Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft (4-1), 3.26 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Kyle Hendricks (3-6), 4.89 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Cincinnati Reds (+110) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-130) on Thursday, June 30, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:05pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Reds vs Cubs Over/Under is 10.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 26-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 37-38 ATS.
Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -165 | O 10.5 -115 | +110 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +140 | U 10.5 -105 | -130 |
Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Thursday‘s matchup with 53.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 17 games (+11.45 Units / 67% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in his last 9 away games (+10.35 Units / 108% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+10.10 Units / 28% ROI)
- Aramis Garcia has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 games (+7.55 Units / 151% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Singles Over in his last 6 games (+6.05 Units / 91% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Willson Contreras has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 22 games (+7.90 Units / 17% ROI)
- Willson Contreras has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+7.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Over in his last 7 games (+7.80 Units / 46% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 6 games (+7.75 Units / 129% ROI)
Cubs vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| David Bote | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -500 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
Cubs vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| David Bote | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +150 |
Cubs vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| David Bote | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -185 |
Cubs vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Hendricks | 3.5 -105 | 3.5 -140 |
| Graham Ashcraft | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -125 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 46 games (+13.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 58 games (+7.30 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 15 of their last 22 away games (+6.30 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 18 away games (+6.05 Units / 34% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 44 of their last 74 games (+13.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 48 games (+6.95 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 38 games (+4.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+2.05 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.70 Units / 22% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 33-41 against the Run Line (-13.75 Units / -14.79% ROI).
- 26-48 when betting on the Moneyline for -16.95 Units / -21.32% ROI
- 41-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +5.6 Units / 6.88% ROI
- 32-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.6 Units / -16.63% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 37-38 against the Run Line (-7.55 Units / -7.74% ROI).
- 29-46 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.95 Units / -17.86% ROI
- 37-36 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.45 Units / -2.96% ROI
- 36-37 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.55 Units / -5.53% ROI
Douglas Ashcraft: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 67% (49/73) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 76% (16/21) against Graham Ashcraft — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — 96th Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has allowed a slugging percentage of just .105 (4 Total Bases / 38 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .421 — 100th Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 85.2 MPH this season (134 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 88.7
Kyle Hendricks: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kyle Hendricks has allowed a slugging percentage of .571 (89 Total Bases / 156 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .379 — fourth Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has averaged 86.7 MPH on fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 35 total IP; League Avg: 93.3 — 0 Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has an average fastball velocity of just 86.8 MPH this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 93.2 — first Percentile.
Kyle Hendricks has averaged 87.2 MPH on fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: 93.1 — 0 Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are just 21-4 (.840) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Reds are just 6-23 (.207) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Reds are just 0-41 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.
The Reds are just 8-38 (.174) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are just 0-37 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .104.
The Cubs are just 3-22 (.120) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Cubs are just 8-35 (.186) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Cubs are just 21-91 (.188) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .293.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .618 (1,417 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 35% this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Reds hitters are slugging just .334 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.
The Reds are batting just .228 against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 38 double plays in 274 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cubs are batting just .155 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Cubs hitters are slugging .634 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .576.
Cubs hitters have put just 35% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
The Reds have allowed 1.84 runs per game (136/74) in late innings this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 35 double plays in 579 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.75 (313.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.88.
Reds pitchers have walked 900 of 9,036 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs have won just 7% of home games in which their opponents scored first this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 31%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 32% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 15% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Todd Smyly (Cubs): Oblique, D15
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Frank J. Schwindel (Cubs): Back, D10
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): COVID, D10
- Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Finger, D10
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Marcus Stroman (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Daniel Norris (Cubs): Finger, D15
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Back, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Hand, D10
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
- Alexis Díaz (Reds): Bicep, D15
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tyler Naquin (Reds): Quad, D10
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
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