Reds vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, May 26

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM May 26, 2023, 3:34 PM
  • The Cubs are -150 favorites vs the Reds
  • Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Justin Steele
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Cincinnati Reds (+125) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-150) on Friday, May 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.

The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Reds vs Cubs Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

This season, the Reds are 21-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 27-22 ATS.

Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -185O 6.5 -110+125
Cubs -1.5 +150U 6.5 -110-150

Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 78.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Reds vs Cubs and all games with BetMGM


We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 49 games (+20.20 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 49 games (+14.95 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 42 games (+11.00 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+9.55 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 19 away games (+9.20 Units / 42% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 34 of his last 42 games (+17.80 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+13.80 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Christopher Morel has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.25 Units / 56% ROI)
  • Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.00 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+10.90 Units / 109% ROI)

Cubs vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 +900 0.5 -5000
Jonathan India 0.5 +850 0.5 -5000
Christopher Morel 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Matt Mervis 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400

Cubs vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 -175 0.5 +135
Jonathan India 0.5 -175 0.5 +130
Christopher Morel 0.5 -135 0.5 +100
Nico Hoerner 1.5 +180 1.5 -250
Matt Mervis 0.5 +105 0.5 -135

Cubs vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 +230 0.5 -300
Jonathan India 0.5 +290 0.5 -400
Christopher Morel 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +240 0.5 -350
Matt Mervis 0.5 +250 0.5 -350

Cubs vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Hunter Greene 7.5 +105 7.5 -135
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 games (+7.45 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 away games (+5.55 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 49 games (+4.90 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 43 games (+3.50 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 28 games (+3.05 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.70 Units / 63% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 45 games (+7.45 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+7.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games at home (+5.40 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 25 games at home (+4.40 Units / 15% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 28-22 against the Run Line (+3.9 Units / 6.25% ROI).

  • 21-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.35 Units / -8.07% ROI
  • 27-23 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.25 Units / 4.15% ROI
  • 23-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.95 Units / -12.46% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 27-22 against the Run Line (+4.8 Units / 7.79% ROI).

  • 22-27 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.75 Units / -9.9% ROI
  • 26-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.6 Units / 2.96% ROI
  • 22-26 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.75 Units / -12.52% ROI

Opponents are hitting .591 (13-for-22) against Hunter Greene on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .347 — first Percentile.

Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .602 (62 Total Bases / 103 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .401 — first Percentile.

Hunter Greene has struck out 35% (39/110) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.

Hunter Greene has a strikeout rate of 55% (29 SO in 53 PAs) on low non-fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 98th Percentile.

Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 50% of the time (121/240) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 31% — 100th Percentile.

Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 47% of the time (287/608) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.

Justin Steele has thrown inside pitches 50% of the time (121/240) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest among in MLB; League Avg: 32% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (36/59) against Justin Steele in two-strike counts this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Reds are just 23-34 (.404) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .650.

The Reds are just 21-23 (.477) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .700.

The Reds are just 15-27 (.357) after a home win since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .542.

The Reds are 7-19 (.269) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .139.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Cubs are just 14-24 (.368) after a loss as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .593.

The Cubs are just 26-13 (.667) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .801.

The Cubs are just 2-12 (.143) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .269.

The Cubs are just 11-53 (.172) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.

The Reds have won just 17% of games in which they have scored first on the road this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 64%.

The Reds are batting .413 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (11 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .271.

Reds hitters have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 32% against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.

Reds hitters are slugging just .211 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.

The Cubs are batting just .279 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .350.

Cubs hitters have been successful in 100% of their bunt for hit attempts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 55%.

Cubs hitters have 23 strikeouts in 69 PA’s (33%) against LHP over the last 14 days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Cubs hitters are slugging .480 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .422.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .310 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .343 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .259.

Reds pitchers have walked 794 of 8,167 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .308 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 6.57 (101.1 IP) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.

Cubs pitchers have allowed an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater 430 times this season — fewest in MLB.

Cubs pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 100 MPH 256 times this season — 2nd fewest in MLB.

Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
  • Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D60
  • Cody Bellinger (Cubs): Knee, D10
  • Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D15
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • William Myers (Reds): Kidney Stones, D10
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Derek Law (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Casey Legumina (Reds): Ankle, D15
  • Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D15
  • Henry Ramos (Reds): Hip, D10
  • Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.