- The Cubs are -175 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Brandon Williamson
- Cubs starting pitcher: Jameson Taillon
- Watch the game on FOX
The Cincinnati Reds (+145) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-175) on Saturday, May 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+110).
The Reds vs Cubs Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 22-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 27-23 ATS.
Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
Reds | +1.5 -135 | O 8.5 -105 | +145 |
Cubs | -1.5 +110 | U 8.5 -115 | -175 |
Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 77.9% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+19.20 Units / 37% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+13.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+10.55 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 43 games (+9.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- Wil Myers has hit the Runs Under in his last 9 away games (+9.00 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 35 of his last 43 games (+18.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 16 games (+14.80 Units / 69% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.25 Units / 57% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 41 games (+11.00 Units / 19% ROI)
Cubs vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
TJ Friedl | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
Jonathan India | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2500 |
Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
Christopher Morel | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Cubs vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
TJ Friedl | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Jonathan India | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Christopher Morel | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
Cubs vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
TJ Friedl | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Jonathan India | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
Christopher Morel | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Cubs vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
Over | Under | |
---|---|---|
Jameson Taillon | 4.5 -125 | 4.5 -105 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 31 of their last 51 games (+8.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 50 games (+5.90 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 away games (+4.55 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 44 games (+4.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 29 games (+4.30 Units / 14% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 15 games (+10.70 Units / 65% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 46 games (+6.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+6.15 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 games at home (+4.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 26 games at home (+3.40 Units / 11% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 29-22 against the Run Line (+4.9 Units / 7.64% ROI).
- 22-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.1 Units / -5.65% ROI
- 28-23 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.25 Units / 5.88% ROI
- 23-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.05 Units / -14.15% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 27-23 against the Run Line (+3.8 Units / 6.07% ROI).
- 22-28 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.2 Units / -12.09% ROI
- 27-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.6 Units / 4.72% ROI
- 22-27 when betting on the total runs Under for -7.85 Units / -14.27% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Williamson has limited playing time.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 18% (12/65) against Jameson Taillon with runners in scoring position this season — 5th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: 31% — third Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has an ERA of 8.10 (26.2 IP)this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 19 total IP; League Avg: 4.35 — third Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has allowed an OBP of just .255 (184 PA’s) with runners in scoring position since last season — 5th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: .319 — 95th Percentile.
Jameson Taillon has walked 11 of 473 right-handed batters (2%) since last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are just 21-23 (.477) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .700.
The Reds are 7-19 (.269) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .136.
The Reds are just 18-44 (.290) after a road loss since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .451.
The Reds are just 14-43 (.246) when their opponents score in the first inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .351.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are just 26-13 (.667) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Cubs are just 14-25 (.359) after a loss as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .594.
The Cubs are just 1-94 (.011) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .047.
The Cubs are just 13-21 (.382) when tied entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds have scored first in just 30% of their road games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
The Reds are batting just .315 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .649 (3,892 PA’s) on the road since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .701.
Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 26% on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
The Cubs are batting just .280 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .352.
Cubs hitters have 4 strikeouts in 8 PA’s (50%) against LHP over the past seven days (2 games) — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.11 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .309 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .303 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Reds pitchers have walked 796 of 8,198 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .340 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 7.11 (101.1 IP) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.33.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 14% of the time since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 10% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D60
- Cody Bellinger (Cubs): Knee, D10
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- William Myers (Reds): Kidney Stones, D10
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Derek Law (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Ankle, D15
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D15
- Henry Ramos (Reds): Hip, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D60
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