- The Cubs are -165 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft
- Cubs starting pitcher: Todd Smyly
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Cincinnati Reds (+135) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-165) on Sunday, May 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Reds vs Cubs Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 23-29 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 27-24 ATS.
Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -155 | O 7.5 +100 | +135 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +125 | U 7.5 -120 | -165 |
Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 71.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Reds vs Cubs and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Jonathan India has hit the Runs Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+19.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 33 of his last 50 games (+13.95 Units / 24% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 44 games (+10.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- TJ Friedl has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 12 away games (+9.25 Units / 75% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 21 away games (+9.15 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ian Happ has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 44 games (+19.80 Units / 23% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 17 games (+13.80 Units / 61% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.75 Units / 47% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 28 of his last 42 games (+9.70 Units / 17% ROI)
Cubs vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Cubs vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 +100 |
Cubs vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Cubs vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Drew Smyly | 5.5 +110 | 5.5 -150 |
| Graham Ashcraft | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 32 of their last 52 games (+9.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 30 of their last 51 games (+6.90 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 30 games (+5.70 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games (+5.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.50 Units / 19% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 16 games (+11.70 Units / 66% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+7.15 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 47 games (+5.45 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.90 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 games at home (+2.25 Units / 8% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 30-22 against the Run Line (+5.9 Units / 9.01% ROI).
- 23-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.7 Units / -3.04% ROI
- 29-23 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.25 Units / 7.52% ROI
- 23-29 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.05 Units / -15.63% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 27-24 against the Run Line (+2.8 Units / 4.4% ROI).
- 22-29 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -14.39% ROI
- 28-22 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.6 Units / 6.39% ROI
- 22-28 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.85 Units / -15.8% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .391 (18-for-46) against Graham Ashcraft’s elevated fastball this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — second Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has allowed an OBP of .392 (125 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .295 — fourth Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has allowed a slugging percentage of .630 (29 Total Bases / 46 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .376 — second Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has struck out just 14% (18/126) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — fifth Percentile.
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 51% of the time (109/215) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 100th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 49% of the time (420/853) this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 19% — 98th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 49% of the time (420/853) this season — 2nd highest among in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 96th Percentile.
Drew Smyly has thrown his curveball 40% of the time (711/1,788) in non-two strike counts since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 84 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 99th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are 7-19 (.269) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .136.
The Reds are just 24-34 (.414) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .649.
The Reds are just 22-23 (.489) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .700.
The Reds are just 28-107 (.207) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .289.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are just 14-26 (.350) after a loss as favorites since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .593.
The Cubs are just 26-13 (.667) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Cubs are just 11-55 (.167) when allowing 10 or more hits since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .271.
The Cubs are just 5-10 (.333) when they’ve scored in the first inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .607.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting .525 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game over the last 14 days (11 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .277.
Reds hitters are slugging just .368 against RHP since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .396.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .446 (1,063 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .515.
Reds hitters are slugging just .215 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .268.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging .477 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .423.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .833 (534 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .749.
Cubs hitters are averaging 4.09 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .276 (1,111 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .309 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .250.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .302 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .339 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .258.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,418 of 14,436 batters (10%) since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have an ERA of 6.77 (102.1 IP) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Cubs have won just just 5% of the time this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 32 of 454 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% in close and late situations this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Bradley Boxberger (Cubs): Forearm, D15
- Adrian Sampson (Cubs): Right Meniscus, D60
- Cody Bellinger (Cubs): Knee, D10
- Nicholas Burdi (Cubs): Appendicitis, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- William Myers (Reds): Kidney Stones, D10
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Derek Law (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Ankle, D15
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D15
- Henry Ramos (Reds): Hip, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D60
Bet now on Reds vs Cubs and all games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.
