- The Cubs (56-78) are -165 favorites vs the Reds (53-79)
- Reds starting pitcher: Justin Dunn (1-2), 4.62 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Wade Miley (1-0), 2.84 ERA
- Watch the game on MARQ
The Cincinnati Reds (+135) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-165) on Tuesday, September 6, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Reds vs Cubs Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 51-79 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 66-66 ATS.
Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -150 | O 8 -115 | +135 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +125 | U 8 -105 | -165 |
Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 17 games (+13.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+19.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 30 games (+17.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+16.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 57 of his last 79 games (+14.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+13.15 Units / 44% ROI)
Cubs vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 +850 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Nick Madrigal | 0.5 +1150 | 0.5 |
Cubs vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 -105 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -115 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +120 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Nick Madrigal | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -275 |
Cubs vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -350 |
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nick Madrigal | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
Cubs vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Dunn | 4.5 +120 | 4.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 60 of their last 104 games (+17.00 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 25 of their last 45 away games (+4.45 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.45 Units / 26% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 35 of their last 57 games (+15.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 2 of their last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 20 games (+0.70 Units / 3% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 60-69 against the Run Line (-14.05 Units / -8.91% ROI).
- 51-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.85 Units / -10.67% ROI
- 65-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.05 Units / -3.52% ROI
- 63-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.8 Units / -6.15% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 66-66 against the Run Line (-10.9 Units / -6.43% ROI).
- 55-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.15 Units / -12.15% ROI
- 56-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.95 Units / -10.41% ROI
- 65-56 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.65 Units / 2.52% ROI
Justin Dunn: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Justin Dunn has allowed at least one HR in each of his last five games dating back to August 8th — Josiah Gray has the longest active streak at 11.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 24% (6/25) against Justin Dunn — 10th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 93rd Percentile.
Justin Dunn has had second base stolen on him 24 times since the start of 2020 — tied for 12th most in MLB — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 20% (3/15) against Justin Dunn against right-handed batters — tied for 4th best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 39% — 97th Percentile.
Wade Miley: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Wade Miley has located his fastball inside 59% of the time (306/517) since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 34% — 100th Percentile.
Wade Miley has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 82.6 MPH with runners in scoring position since the start of last season (114 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 88.0
Wade Miley has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 84.1 MPH on pitches away since the start of last season (235 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 87.8
Wade Miley has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (918/2,118) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 147 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are just 40-7 (.851) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
The Reds are 11-7 (.611) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 4-63 (.060) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Reds are just 11-60 (.155) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .199.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are just 28-40 (.412) on the road this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .472.
The Cubs are just 10-13 (.435) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 43-5 (.896) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .916.
The Cubs are just 28-108 (.206) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .242 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Reds hitters are slugging just .344 on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 40% this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .322 (8,051 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging just .167 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .350.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 50 double plays in 357 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cubs have won just 59% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Cubs hitters have 729 strikeouts in 2,941 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 74 double plays in 1,020 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .284 against Reds pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Reds pitchers have walked 8 of 49 batters (16%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (5 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,108 of 11,290 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% over the last 14 days (13 games) — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 20% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,050 of 11,350 batters (9%) since the start of last season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 32% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 41%.
Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Keegan Thompson (Cubs): Back, D15
- Willson Contreras (Cubs): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
- Patrick Wisdom (Cubs): Finger, D10
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Reinaldo Almora Jr. (Reds): Shoulder, D10
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Matthew Reynolds (Reds): Hip, D10
- Timothy James Zeuch (Reds): Back, D15
- Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Biceps, D15
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
- Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
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