Reds vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 8

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 08, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Cubs (57-79) are -145 favorites vs the Reds (54-80)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Luis Cessa (3-2), 5.17 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (1-5), 3.94 ERA
  • Watch the game on YouTube

The Cincinnati Reds (+120) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-145) on Thursday, September 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.

The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).

The Reds vs Cubs Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 52-80 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 67-67 ATS.

Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -165O 8.5 -115+120
Cubs -1.5 +140U 8.5 -105-145

Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Thursday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 17 games (+13.85 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Donovan Solano has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+19.00 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 30 games (+17.50 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+16.25 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 57 of his last 79 games (+14.50 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+13.15 Units / 44% ROI)

Cubs vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +775 0.5 -3000
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Ian Happ 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Seiya Suzuki 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400

Cubs vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Franmil Reyes 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Ian Happ 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Nico Hoerner 1.5 +195 1.5 -300
Seiya Suzuki 0.5 -250 0.5 +175

Cubs vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alfonso Rivas 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Ian Happ 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Seiya Suzuki 0.5 +180 0.5 -275

Cubs vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Adrian Sampson 3.5 -150 3.5 +105
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 62 of their last 106 games (+19.00 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 26 of their last 47 away games (+4.40 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.85 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.65 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.05 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games (+15.00 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.00 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 6 games (+2.05 Units / 32% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 61-70 against the Run Line (-14.6 Units / -9.07% ROI).

  • 52-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.6 Units / -10.34% ROI
  • 66-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -4 Units / -2.74% ROI
  • 63-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.05 Units / -6.92% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 67-67 against the Run Line (-10.55 Units / -6.15% ROI).

  • 56-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.6 Units / -12.21% ROI
  • 57-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.9 Units / -9.53% ROI
  • 65-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.4 Units / 1.63% ROI

Luis Cessa has struck out just 16% (44/269) of right-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.

Luis Cessa has a strikeout rate of just 7% (5 SO in 69 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs since the start of last season — 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — sixth Percentile.

Luis Cessa has thrown low pitches 61% of the time (285/466) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.

Luis Cessa has allowed a slugging percentage of .524 (66 Total Bases / 126 ABs) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .349 — third Percentile.

Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Adrian Sampson has a strike rate of just 61% (389/642) vs left-handed batters this season — 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 12th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 27% (62/226) against Adrian Sampson this season — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 24% — eighth Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 29% (37/126) against Adrian Sampson this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.

Adrian Sampson has struck out just 14% (23/159) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 11th Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Reds are just 3-67 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Reds are just 39-9 (.812) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.

The Reds are 10-6 (.625) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Reds are just 41-7 (.854) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Cubs are just 10-13 (.435) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Cubs are just 4-63 (.060) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Cubs are just 8-39 (.170) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .278.

The Cubs are 132-7 (.950) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .914.

Reds hitters are slugging just .505 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .556.

The Reds have a winning percentage of just 37% on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.

The Reds are batting just .237 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.

Reds hitters are slugging just .348 on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 50 double plays in 357 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .167 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .351.

The Cubs are batting just .156 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .385 (78 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .652.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,120 of 11,370 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 78 double plays in 1,036 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Reds pitchers have walked 503 of 5,171 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,333 of 13,495 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 20% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 1,055 of 11,423 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Keegan Thompson (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Willson Contreras (Cubs): Foot, D10
  • Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
  • Patrick Wisdom (Cubs): Finger, D10
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Matthew Reynolds (Reds): Hip, D10
  • Timothy James Zeuch (Reds): Back, D15
  • Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Biceps, D15
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
  • Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.