- The Cubs (57-79) are -145 favorites vs the Reds (54-80)
- Reds starting pitcher: Luis Cessa (3-2), 5.17 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (1-5), 3.94 ERA
- Watch the game on YouTube
The Cincinnati Reds (+120) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (-145) on Thursday, September 8, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Cubs are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Reds vs Cubs Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 52-80 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 67-67 ATS.
Reds vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -165 | O 8.5 -115 | +120 |
| Cubs | -1.5 +140 | U 8.5 -105 | -145 |
Reds vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Thursday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 17 games (+13.85 Units / 35% ROI)
- Donovan Solano has hit the RBIs Under in 18 of his last 21 games (+11.40 Units / 23% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 30 of his last 41 away games (+10.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.10 Units / 110% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+19.00 Units / 58% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 30 games (+17.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 23 of his last 29 games (+16.25 Units / 37% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 57 of his last 79 games (+14.50 Units / 9% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 18 games (+13.15 Units / 44% ROI)
Cubs vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Cubs vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +195 | 1.5 -300 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
Cubs vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Rivas | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Seiya Suzuki | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
Cubs vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adrian Sampson | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 62 of their last 106 games (+19.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 26 of their last 47 away games (+4.40 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.65 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.05 Units / 19% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 36 of their last 59 games (+15.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 6 games (+2.05 Units / 32% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 61-70 against the Run Line (-14.6 Units / -9.07% ROI).
- 52-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.6 Units / -10.34% ROI
- 66-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -4 Units / -2.74% ROI
- 63-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.05 Units / -6.92% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 67-67 against the Run Line (-10.55 Units / -6.15% ROI).
- 56-78 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.6 Units / -12.21% ROI
- 57-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.9 Units / -9.53% ROI
- 65-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.4 Units / 1.63% ROI
Luis Cessa: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Cessa has struck out just 16% (44/269) of right-handed batters he faced since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — fourth Percentile.
Luis Cessa has a strikeout rate of just 7% (5 SO in 69 PAs) in PAs ending on inside fastballs since the start of last season — 8th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — sixth Percentile.
Luis Cessa has thrown low pitches 61% of the time (285/466) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — 98th Percentile.
Luis Cessa has allowed a slugging percentage of .524 (66 Total Bases / 126 ABs) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: .349 — third Percentile.
Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Sampson has a strike rate of just 61% (389/642) vs left-handed batters this season — 13th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 12th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 27% (62/226) against Adrian Sampson this season — 13th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 24% — eighth Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 29% (37/126) against Adrian Sampson this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 23% — third Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has struck out just 14% (23/159) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 12th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 67 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 11th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds are just 3-67 (.043) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Reds are just 39-9 (.812) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.
The Reds are 10-6 (.625) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds are just 41-7 (.854) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are just 10-13 (.435) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 4-63 (.060) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Cubs are just 8-39 (.170) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .278.
The Cubs are 132-7 (.950) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .914.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters are slugging just .505 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .556.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 37% on the road this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
The Reds are batting just .237 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Reds hitters are slugging just .348 on the road this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .389.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 50 double plays in 357 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .167 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .351.
The Cubs are batting just .156 with two-strikes since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .385 (78 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .652.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 1,120 of 11,370 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 78 double plays in 1,036 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Reds pitchers have walked 503 of 5,171 batters (10%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,333 of 13,495 batters (10%) since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have won only 20% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,055 of 11,423 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Keegan Thompson (Cubs): Back, D15
- Willson Contreras (Cubs): Foot, D10
- Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
- Patrick Wisdom (Cubs): Finger, D10
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Matthew Reynolds (Reds): Hip, D10
- Timothy James Zeuch (Reds): Back, D15
- Robert Dugger (Reds): Shoulder, D15
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D60
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Douglas Ashcraft (Reds): Biceps, D15
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Rotator Cuff, D60
- Michael Moustakas (Reds): Calf, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
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