Reds vs Diamondbacks Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 21

Arizona Diamondbacks' Pavin Smith rounds the bases after his two-run home run during the second inning of a baseball game against the Detroit Tigers, Sunday, June 11, 2023, in Detroit.
(AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)
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The Cincinnati Reds (+125) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-150) on August 21, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 pm in Phoenix, AZ.

This season, the Reds are 61-67 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 68-56 ATS.

Reds vs Diamondbacks Starting Pitchers Today:

  • Reds starting pitcher: Nick Lodolo 3-2, 4.50 ERA
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Eduardo Rodriguez 12-4, 2.71 ERA

Reds vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -170O 8 +100+125
Diamondbacks -1.5 +140U 8 -120-150

Reds vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Friday‘s MLB game with 54.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 10 away games (+23.80 Units / 238% ROI)
  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 away games (+12.85 Units / 33% ROI)
  • JJ Bleday has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 25 games (+12.60 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.35 Units / 38% ROI)
  • JJ Bleday has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.60 Units / 32% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Nolan Arenado has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games at home (+18.40 Units / 184% ROI)
  • Eduardo Rodriguez has hit the Earned Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+15.15 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Corbin Carroll has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+12.95 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Gabriel Moreno has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+12.95 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Gabriel Moreno has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 games (+12.55 Units / 41% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+9.20 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+6.20 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 26 of their last 45 games (+4.95 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 24 away games (+4.65 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 9 of their last 16 away games (+0.75 Units / 3% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 games (+11.10 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+8.70 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+8.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 50 games at home (+8.35 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 45 games (+7.10 Units / 14% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Reds are 66-60 against the Run Line (-10 Units / -5.59% ROI).

  • 61-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.75 Units / -4% ROI
  • 67-59 when betting on the total runs Over for +2 Units / 1.41% ROI
  • 59-67 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.2 Units / -10.12% ROI

Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 68-56 against the Run Line (+0.55 Units / 0.32% ROI).

  • 67-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.05 Units / 5.4% ROI
  • 55-67 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.75 Units / -13.25% ROI
  • 67-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.05 Units / 5.03% ROI

Diamondbacks vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Yes
Eugenio Suarez +400
Nolan Arenado +450
Sal Stewart +450
Corbin Carroll +500
Ildemaro Vargas +550

Diamondbacks vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Sal Stewart 0.5 -250 0.5 +185
Ildemaro Vargas 0.5 -235 0.5 +175
Corbin Carroll 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 -225 0.5 +165
Dane Myers 0.5 -220 0.5 +165

Diamondbacks vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
JJ Bleday 0.5 -235 0.5 +170
Jordan Lawlar 0.5 -235 0.5 +175
Tim Tawa 0.5 -235 0.5 +170
Tyler Stephenson 0.5 -235 0.5 +175
Matt McLain 0.5 -225 0.5 +165

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

The Reds are 6-59 (.092) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Reds are just 7-17 (.292) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Reds are 49-14 (.778) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB.

The Reds are just 30-16 (.652) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Diamondbacks are 58-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 9th inning this season — tied for best in MLB.

The Diamondbacks are just 109-25 (.813) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

The Diamondbacks are 8-117 (.064) when trailing entering the 9th inning since the 2025 season — 4th best in MLB.

The Diamondbacks were just 67-7 (.905) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .956.

The Reds are 6-59 (.092) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Reds are just 7-17 (.292) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Reds are 35-25 (.583) against the run line (6.1% ROI) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB.

The Reds are 49-14 (.778) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB.

The Diamondbacks are 35-28 (.556) against the run line (6.8% ROI) at home this season — 4th best in MLB.

Games involving the Diamondbacks went UNDER in 61% of their games (21.4% ROI) after a loss this season — 3rd highest in MLB.

The Diamondbacks are 70-58 (.547) against the run line (-0.3% ROI) this season — tied for 4th best in MLB.

The Diamondbacks are 31-22 (7.7% ROI) when slight moneyline favorites (-101 to -149) this season — 4th best in MLB.

Reds pitchers have walked 6 of 124 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (14 games) — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 6.49 (51.1 IP) on the road this month (6 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.26.

Reds pitchers have walked 10 of 169 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (19 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Reds pitchers have walked 3 of 73 batters (4%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (8 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Diamondbacks pitchers over the past seven days (6 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 37% against Diamondbacks pitchers over the last 14 days (12 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 16% over the past seven days (6 games) — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Diamondbacks pitchers have walked 14 of 226 batters (6%) over the past seven days (6 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

More MLB Reading:


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.