- The Diamondbacks are -130 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Brett Kennedy
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Davies
- Watch the game on ARID
The Cincinnati Reds (+105) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-130) on Saturday, August 26, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 8:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Reds vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 67-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 71-56 ATS.
Reds vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -185 | O 9.5 -120 | +105 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +150 | U 9.5 +100 | -130 |
Reds vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 65.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 25 of his last 37 games (+15.45 Units / 24% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+12.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+12.00 Units / 44% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+10.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.15 Units / 62% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+13.20 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 19 games at home (+11.20 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+10.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 33 of his last 49 games (+10.15 Units / 14% ROI)
- Zac Gallen has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+9.95 Units / 27% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -800 |
Diamondbacks vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Diamondbacks vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Diamondbacks vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zach Davies | 4.5 +100 | 4.5 -130 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 81 of their last 129 games (+26.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 51 away games (+23.50 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 33 of their last 49 away games (+14.70 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 49 away games (+8.85 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.70 Units / 22% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 54 games at home (+11.45 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 43 games (+10.09 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.67 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 54 games at home (+7.49 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.65 Units / 88% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 81-49 against the Run Line (+25.7 Units / 15.02% ROI).
- 67-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +14.55 Units / 10.32% ROI
- 65-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.15 Units / -2.95% ROI
- 63-65 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.35 Units / -5.93% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 71-56 against the Run Line (+9.25 Units / 5.69% ROI).
- 67-60 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.7 Units / 6.29% ROI
- 54-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.65 Units / -13.84% ROI
- 66-54 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.9 Units / 5.74% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Fernando Cruz has a first-pitch strike rate of just 53% (116/219) this season — 2nd lowest among in MLB; League Avg: 62% — second Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 39% (92/235) against Fernando Cruz this season — 5th best among qualified RPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 95th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a miss rate of 39% (92/235) against Fernando Cruz this season — 4th best among in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 48% (20/42) against Fernando Cruz over the last 14 days (5 games) — best in NL over the last two weeks; League Avg: 27% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 21% (173/834) against Zach Davies on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 0 Percentile.
Zach Davies has a strike rate of just 58% (592/1,023) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Zach Davies has located his fastball away 64% of the time (1,149/1,795) since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 115 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 40% of Zach Davies’ pitches (405/1,023) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 48% — first Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Reds are just 13-19 (.406) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .583.
The Reds are 22-41 (.349) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .217.
The Reds are 23-14 (.622) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .489.
The Reds were just 14-24 (.368) when scoring in the first inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .664.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Diamondbacks are just 121-12 (.910) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Diamondbacks are just 107-20 (.843) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Diamondbacks are 9-116 (.072) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .048.
The Diamondbacks are just 99-24 (.805) when leading entering the 7th inning since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .869.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have an OBP of .332 (2,564 PA’s) on the road this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Games involving the Reds went UNDER in 72% of their games (39.7% ROI) after a loss as favorites since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
The Reds are batting just .319 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
The Reds have an average HR distance of 394.4 feet since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 398.7.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of just .681 (3,035 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Diamondbacks hitters have put just 35% of balls in play to the left side of the field since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .378 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OBP of just .303 (3,035 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .291 against Reds pitchers with runners on base since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .253.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 241 of 2,587 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The longest HR allowed by the Diamondbacks pitchers this season traveled 493.0 feet — — longest in MLB; League Avg: 464.7
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Austin Adams (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D60
- Kenneth Kelly (Diamondbacks): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Thomas Henry (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Back, D15
- Alexander Young (Reds): Hamstring, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Stuart Fairchild (Reds): Concussion, D7
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Kevin Newman (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Toe, D10
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Shoulder, D10
- Jonathan India (Reds): Heel, D10
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