- The Diamondbacks are -120 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Slade Cecconi
- Watch the game on ARID
The Cincinnati Reds (+100) visit Chase Field to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (-120) on Sunday, August 27, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Phoenix.
The Diamondbacks are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Reds vs Diamondbacks Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 68-63 against the spread (ATS), while the Diamondbacks are 71-57 ATS.
Reds vs. Diamondbacks Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -190 | O 9 +100 | +100 |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +155 | U 9 -120 | -120 |
Reds vs Diamondbacks Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 53.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Diamondbacks and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 38 games (+16.45 Units / 25% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Runs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+11.90 Units / 44% ROI)
- Will Benson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 away games (+10.55 Units / 31% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+10.15 Units / 62% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 22 away games (+9.50 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Ketel Marte has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+12.20 Units / 30% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 16 games (+10.90 Units / 32% ROI)
- Zac Gallen has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 18 of his last 26 games (+9.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- Ketel Marte has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+9.60 Units / 37% ROI)
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 16 games (+9.25 Units / 46% ROI)
Diamondbacks vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Diamondbacks vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Spencer Steer | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Diamondbacks vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
| Elly De La Cruz | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Christian Walker | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Corbin Carroll | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -250 |
| Tommy Pham | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Diamondbacks vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Graham Ashcraft | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Slade Cecconi | 4.5 +105 | 4.5 -140 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 82 of their last 130 games (+27.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 52 away games (+24.50 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Over in 34 of their last 50 away games (+15.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 50 away games (+9.85 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.90 Units / 15% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 55 games at home (+10.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 44 games (+8.94 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 16 of their last 23 games (+8.82 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+7.10 Units / 45% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 55 games at home (+6.39 Units / 10% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 82-49 against the Run Line (+26.7 Units / 15.43% ROI).
- 68-63 when betting on the Moneyline for +15.55 Units / 10.94% ROI
- 66-63 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.15 Units / -2.22% ROI
- 63-66 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.45 Units / -6.66% ROI
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 71-57 against the Run Line (+8.25 Units / 5.04% ROI).
- 67-61 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.55 Units / 5.51% ROI
- 55-66 when betting on the total runs Over for -18.65 Units / -13.03% ROI
- 66-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +6.8 Units / 4.9% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Graham Ashcraft has allowed an OBP of .372 (298 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .298 — first Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .349 (37-for-106) against Graham Ashcraft’s elevated fastball this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .224 — second Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has an ERA of 7.44 (84.2 IP) against division opponents since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 116 total IP; League Avg: 3.95 — second Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has thrown fastballs 67% of the time (724/1,078) vs left-handed batters this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Slade Cecconi has a first-pitch strike rate of 76% (28/37) — 10th highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 63% — 91st Percentile.
Opponents have a chase percentage of just 22% (24/108) against Slade Cecconi over the last 30 days (4 games) — 6th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 29% — third Percentile.
Slade Cecconi has a strikeout rate of just 14% (9 SO in 62 PAs) over the last 30 days (4 games) — tied for 14th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 22% — ninth Percentile.
Slade Cecconi has allowed an OPS of just .508 (15 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count over the last 30 days (4 games) — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 10 total IP; League Avg: 1.099 — 98th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Reds are 23-41 (.359) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .217.
The Reds are just 13-19 (.406) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .584.
The Reds are just 38-41 (.481) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .641.
The Reds are 21-9 (.700) after a win as favorites since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .593.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Diamondbacks are just 121-13 (.903) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .952.
The Diamondbacks are just 107-21 (.836) when leading entering the 8th inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .907.
The Diamondbacks are just 29-14 (.674) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Diamondbacks are just 50-35 (.588) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are batting just .319 on the first pitch of at-bats since last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .342.
The Reds have scored first in just 43% of their games this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Reds are batting just .142 on pitches out of the zone since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .154.
Games involving the Reds went UNDER in 72% of their games (39.7% ROI) after a loss as favorites since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 51%.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .378 against LHP since last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Diamondbacks hitters have just 273 strikeouts in 1,352 PA’s (20%) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Diamondbacks hitters have put 39% of their swings in play against LHP since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have walked 241 of 2,598 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Reds pitchers since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have won 53% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% in close and late situations since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Diamondbacks pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Diamondbacks vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Mark Melancon (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Corbin Martin (Diamondbacks): Lat, D60
- Austin Adams (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D60
- Kenneth Kelly (Diamondbacks): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Thomas Henry (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Drey Jameson (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Alexander Young (Reds): Hamstring, D15
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Stuart Fairchild (Reds): Concussion, D7
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Kevin Newman (Reds): Oblique, D10
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Jake Fraley (Reds): Toe, D10
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Shoulder, D10
- Jonathan India (Reds): Heel, D10
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