- The Dodgers are -225 favorites vs the Reds
- Reds starting pitcher: Brandon Williamson
- Dodgers starting pitcher: Robert Miller
- Watch the game on SportsNet LA
The Cincinnati Reds (+185) visit Dodger Stadium to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (-225) on Friday, July 28, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Los Angeles.
The Dodgers are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Reds vs Dodgers Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
This season, the Reds are 56-48 against the spread (ATS), while the Dodgers are 54-47 ATS.
Reds vs. Dodgers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 +100 | O 9.5 -115 | +185 |
| Dodgers | -1.5 -120 | U 9.5 -105 | -225 |
Reds vs Dodgers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Dodgers will win Friday‘s MLB matchup with 82.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Dodgers and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Hits Under in his last 12 games (+14.60 Units / 57% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- Matt McLain has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+9.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 11 away games (+9.30 Units / 52% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Stolen Bases Under in 11 of his last 12 games (+9.00 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Dodgers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Dodgers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Freddie Freeman has hit the RBIs Over in 21 of his last 41 games (+12.50 Units / 30% ROI)
- J.D. Martinez has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 13 games (+11.15 Units / 86% ROI)
- Austin Barnes has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.05 Units / 33% ROI)
- James Outman has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+9.45 Units / 63% ROI)
- Enrique Hernandez has hit the RBIs Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+8.65 Units / 21% ROI)
Dodgers vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +775 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +270 | 0.5 -450 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -650 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +675 | 0.5 -2000 |
Dodgers vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +105 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +130 |
| Max Muncy | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +125 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
Dodgers vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -450 |
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Max Muncy | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Will Smith | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -185 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
Dodgers vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bobby Miller | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -130 |
| Brandon Williamson | 3.5 -165 | 3.5 +130 |
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 66 of their last 103 games (+26.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 49 of their last 82 games (+24.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 49 of their last 73 games (+22.40 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 73 games (+13.80 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 14 games (+9.95 Units / 66% ROI)
Dodgers Best Bets Today:
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 81 games (+18.20 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Over in 60 of their last 97 games (+17.75 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 75 games (+13.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 39 games at home (+4.55 Units / 11% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 66-38 against the Run Line (+25 Units / 18.46% ROI).
- 56-48 when betting on the Moneyline for +16.7 Units / 14.71% ROI
- 55-49 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.4 Units / 1.22% ROI
- 49-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.3 Units / -9.86% ROI
Dodgers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Dodgers have gone 54-47 against the Run Line (+9.95 Units / 8.25% ROI).
- 58-43 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.65 Units / -4.24% ROI
- 58-38 when betting on the total runs Over for +16.35 Units / 14.7% ROI
- 38-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -25.2 Units / -22.68% ROI
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Brandon Williamson has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last six games dating back to June 19th — Freddy Peralta has the longest active streak at 9.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .117 (7 GB hits out of 60 GBs) against Brandon Williamson this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: .244 — 99th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 20% (3/15) against Brandon Williamson — tied for 4th lowest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 41% — fifth Percentile.
Brandon Williamson has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (412/977) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
Dodgers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Bobby Miller has allowed an OPS of 1.875 (16 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count over the last 30 days (4 games) — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.028 — third Percentile.
Bobby Miller has not walked any of the 25 batters that he has faced over the past seven days (1 games) — tied for best in NL over the last week; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Bobby Miller has an average fastball velocity of 98.9 MPH this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 40 total IP; League Avg: 93.5 — 100th Percentile.
Bobby Miller has allowed an OBP of just .122 (49 PA’s) with two-strikes over the last 30 days (4 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .237 — 98th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Dodgers
The Reds are 42-2 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .896.
The Reds are 19-32 (.373) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .218.
The Reds are 35-21 (.625) after a win this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .519.
The Reds are just 10-15 (.400) after a loss as favorites since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .585.
Dodgers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Dodgers are 148-26 (.851) when allowing 4 or fewer runs since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Dodgers are 29-13 (.690) after a loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .481.
The Dodgers are 13-5 (.722) after a home loss this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .499.
The Dodgers are 169-94 (.643) since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds are 20-5 (.800) against the run line (42.9% ROI) vs top 10 scoring offenses this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .439.
Reds hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Reds have scored first in just 34% of their games against division opponents this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .334 (1,969 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .316.
Dodgers Hitting Stats & Trends
Dodgers hitters have an OPS of .769 (3,127 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .693.
Dodgers hitters are slugging .450 against RHP since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .400.
Dodgers hitters have grounded into 15 double plays in 316 opportunities (5%) in close and late situations since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Dodgers have scored 431 runs in innings 7-9 since last season — most in MLB.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 391 of 4,061 batters (10%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds pitchers have won 52% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,003 of 10,281 batters (10%) since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Dodgers Pitching Stats & Trends
The Dodgers have won 52% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Dodgers have won 53% of home games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Dodgers pitchers have walked 714 of 9,671 batters (7%) since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Dodgers have won 47% of games in which their opponents scored first since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 32%.
Dodgers vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Clayton Kershaw (Dodgers): Shoulder, D15
- Gavin Lux (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Jonathon Feyereisen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- James Nelson (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Blake Treinen (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Dustin May (Dodgers): Forearm, D60
- Ryan Pepiot (Dodgers): Oblique, D60
- Jacob Marisnick (Dodgers): Hamstring, D10
- Jonathan Deluca (Dodgers): Hamstring, D10
- Walker Buehler (Dodgers): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Hudson (Dodgers): Knee, D60
- Shelby Miller (Dodgers): Neck, D60
- Alexander Reyes (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Trayce Thompson (Dodgers): Oblique, D60
- Tyler Cyr (Dodgers): Shoulder, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Connor Overton (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Curtis Casali (Reds): Foot, D10
- Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Calf, D60
- Christian Greene (Reds): Hip, D15
- Reiver Sanmartin (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Casey Legumina (Reds): Shoulder, D15
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