• The Reds are +105 favorites vs the Marlins
• Reds vs Marlins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
• Reds / Marlins TV Channel: RDTV | MATV

The Cincinnati Reds (+105) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-125) on April 6, 2026. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 pm in Miami, FL.

This season, the Reds are 6-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 3-6 ATS.

Reds vs Marlins Starting Pitchers Today:

• Reds starting pitcher: Brandon Williamson 0-1, 11.58 ERA
• Marlins starting pitcher: Janson Junk 0-0, 4.16 ERA

Reds vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

Reds vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Monday‘s MLB game with 51.8% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today:

• Nate Lowe has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.65 Units / 54% ROI)
• Elly De La Cruz has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+12.50 Units / 156% ROI)
• TJ Friedl has hit the Walks Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+11.90 Units / 79% ROI)
• Spencer Steer has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.75 Units / 37% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+11.20 Units / 75% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today:

• Jakob Marsee has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+11.95 Units / 72% ROI)
• Jakob Marsee has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.45 Units / 57% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Singles Over in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 63% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+9.60 Units / 107% ROI)
• Xavier Edwards has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+8.00 Units / 200% ROI)

Reds Best Bets Today:

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 84 of their last 141 games (+30.15 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 43 of their last 76 games (+6.15 Units / 7% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 17 of their last 28 away games (+4.10 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 games (+2.90 Units / 11% ROI)

Marlins Best Bets Today:

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 98 games (+23.85 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Over in 56 of their last 87 games (+20.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 143 games (+15.10 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 42 of their last 71 games at home (+10.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 53 games (+7.70 Units / 13% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Reds are 6-3 against the Run Line (+2.45 Units / 18.35% ROI).

• 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +4 Units / 42.78% ROI
• 3-5 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.4 Units / -24.62% ROI
• 5-3 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.65 Units / 16.42% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this season, the Marlins are 3-6 against the Run Line (-2.65 Units / -26.77% ROI).

• 6-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.9 Units / 29.66% ROI
• 6-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 28.21% ROI
• 3-6 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.7 Units / -36.82% ROI

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Reds are just 8-127 (.059) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.

The Reds were just 7-50 (.123) when they allowed 5 or more runs in the 2025 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .202.

The Reds are just 11-123 (.082) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2024 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .133.

The Reds are just 14-27 (.341) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2024 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Marlins were 9-67 (.118) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2025 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .090.

The Marlins were 65-1 (.985) when leading entering the 9th inning in the 2025 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .956.

The Marlins are just 147-186 (.441) since the 2024 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Marlins were just 38-43 (.469) at home in the 2025 season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .542.

Reds Hitting Stats & Trends

Reds hitters have a swing rate of just 39% in lefty-lefty matchups since the 2025 season — lowest in MLB.

The Reds are batting just .128 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Reds hitters slugged just .353 against LHP in the 2025 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

The Reds are batting just .227 against LHP since the 2024 season — tied for lowest in MLB.

Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends

The Marlins are batting .270 on pitches out of the zone this season — best in MLB.

The Marlins are batting .222 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB.

Marlins hitters have an OPS of .858 (201 PA’s) against RHP this season — 3rd best in MLB.

Marlins hitters slugged just .504 on the first pitch of at-bats in the 2025 season — 2nd lowest in MLB.

Reds Pitching Stats & Trends

Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers in the 2025 season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 5th lowest in MLB.

Opponents had a groundball batting average of just .228 against Reds pitchers in the 2025 season — 2nd best in MLB.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers since the 2025 season — 3rd lowest in MLB.

Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends

Marlins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 51% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB.

Opponents have a miss rate of 33% against Marlins pitchers this season — best in MLB.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 5.04 (727.1 IP) on the road since the 2025 season — 3rd highest in MLB.

Marlins pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 40% with two-strikes in the 2025 season — 5th lowest in MLB.

More MLB Reading:

• Home Run Predictions Today
• Best NRFI Bets Today
• Strikeout Props Today
• MLB Starting Pitchers Today

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