- The Reds (40-61) are -105 favorites vs the Marlins (47-55)
- Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene (3-12), 5.58 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo (2-3), 4.03 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Cincinnati Reds (-105) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-115) on Monday, August 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Reds are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).
The Reds vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 40-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 45-57 ATS.
Reds vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | -1.5 +165 | O 7.5 -120 | -105 |
| Marlins | +1.5 -200 | U 7.5 +100 | -115 |
Reds vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Monday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 54 games (+18.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 35 of his last 56 games (+15.70 Units / 26% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 54 games (+13.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 games (+11.45 Units / 44% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+13.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 46 games at home (+12.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+11.50 Units / 51% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.30 Units / 44% ROI)
Marlins vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Leblanc | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Marlins vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Leblanc | 0.5 -110 | 0.5 -125 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 -120 | 0.5 -115 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +120 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 -115 | 0.5 -125 |
Marlins vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Leblanc | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Marlins vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Greene | 6.5 -140 | 6.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 73 games (+14.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games (+8.85 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 75 games (+8.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.70 Units / 44% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 42 games (+6.45 Units / 14% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 29 of their last 48 games at home (+9.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 39 games at home (+5.75 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 50 games (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 48-53 against the Run Line (-10.55 Units / -8.43% ROI).
- 40-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.1 Units / -10.22% ROI
- 54-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.1 Units / 2.78% ROI
- 46-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.6 Units / -12.23% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 45-57 against the Run Line (-19.85 Units / -14.65% ROI).
- 47-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.55 Units / -10.18% ROI
- 50-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -2.04% ROI
- 48-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.55 Units / -5.84% ROI
Christian Greene: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .800 (52 Total Bases / 65 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .423 — 0 Percentile.
Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .857 (30 Total Bases / 35 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .430 — 0 Percentile.
Hunter Greene has thrown 339 fastballs at 100+ MPH this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.000 (39 Total Bases / 39 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .572 — 0 Percentile.
Jesús Luzardo: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jesus Luzardo has walked 67 of 623 right-handed batters (11%) since the start of 2020 — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .703 (232 Total Bases / 330 ABs) in non-two strike counts since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .562 — 0 Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of 1.363 (161 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count since the start of 2020 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 1.062 — second Percentile.
Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of .853 (623 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of 2020 — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .715 — third Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Reds are just 30-7 (.811) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.
The Reds are just 8-48 (.143) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Reds are just 13-48 (.213) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Reds are just 7-21 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Marlins are just 8-24 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Marlins are just 17-51 (.250) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
The Marlins are just 7-24 (.226) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
The Marlins are just 22-26 (.458) at home this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .281 (445 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Reds hitters are slugging just .337 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 36% on the road this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Reds hitters have an OPS of .779 (3,046 PA’s) against right-handed relievers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .288 (2,450 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have 674 strikeouts in 2,450 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .350 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.
Marlins hitters have drawn 50 walks in 754 PA’s (7%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,000 of 10,108 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.33 (383.0 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .301 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 6.20 (61.0 IP) over the past seven days (7 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.78.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Marlins vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
- Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): COVID-19, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D60
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Wrist, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
- Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
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