Reds vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 1

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 01, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Reds (40-61) are -105 favorites vs the Marlins (47-55)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene (3-12), 5.58 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Jesús Luzardo (2-3), 4.03 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The Cincinnati Reds (-105) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-115) on Monday, August 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.

The Reds are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Reds vs Marlins Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 40-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 45-57 ATS.

Reds vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds-1.5 +165O 7.5 -120-105
Marlins +1.5 -200U 7.5 +100-115

Reds vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Monday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Marlins vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 54 games (+18.65 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 35 of his last 56 games (+15.70 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 54 games (+13.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Tommy Pham has hit the Hits Under in 14 of his last 24 games (+11.45 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 23 games (+11.25 Units / 35% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+13.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Singles Over in 28 of his last 46 games at home (+12.65 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.85 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+11.50 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.30 Units / 44% ROI)

Marlins vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan De La Cruz 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Leblanc 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
JJ Bleday 0.5 +475 0.5 -1000
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400

Marlins vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan De La Cruz 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Leblanc 0.5 -110 0.5 -125
JJ Bleday 0.5 -120 0.5 -115
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 -175 0.5 +120
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 -115 0.5 -125

Marlins vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Bryan De La Cruz 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Leblanc 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
JJ Bleday 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

Marlins vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Hunter Greene 6.5 -140 6.5 +100
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 44 of their last 73 games (+14.45 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 games (+8.85 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 75 games (+8.35 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.70 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 42 games (+6.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 29 of their last 48 games at home (+9.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 39 games at home (+5.75 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 25 of their last 50 games (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 48-53 against the Run Line (-10.55 Units / -8.43% ROI).

  • 40-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.1 Units / -10.22% ROI
  • 54-46 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.1 Units / 2.78% ROI
  • 46-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.6 Units / -12.23% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 45-57 against the Run Line (-19.85 Units / -14.65% ROI).

  • 47-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.55 Units / -10.18% ROI
  • 50-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.3 Units / -2.04% ROI
  • 48-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.55 Units / -5.84% ROI

Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .800 (52 Total Bases / 65 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .423 — 0 Percentile.

Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .857 (30 Total Bases / 35 ABs) on low fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .430 — 0 Percentile.

Hunter Greene has thrown 339 fastballs at 100+ MPH this season — most among pitchers in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.000 (39 Total Bases / 39 ABs) on the first pitch of at-bats this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: .572 — 0 Percentile.

Jesús Luzardo: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Jesus Luzardo has walked 67 of 623 right-handed batters (11%) since the start of 2020 — tied for 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 7% — fifth Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has allowed a slugging percentage of .703 (232 Total Bases / 330 ABs) in non-two strike counts since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .562 — 0 Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of 1.363 (161 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count since the start of 2020 — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 1.062 — second Percentile.

Jesus Luzardo has allowed an OPS of .853 (623 PA’s) against right-handed batters since the start of 2020 — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: .715 — third Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Reds are just 30-7 (.811) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.

The Reds are just 8-48 (.143) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.

The Reds are just 13-48 (.213) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Reds are just 7-21 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Marlins are just 8-24 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Marlins are just 17-51 (.250) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — tied for 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

The Marlins are just 7-24 (.226) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.

The Marlins are just 22-26 (.458) at home this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.

Reds hitters have an OBP of just .281 (445 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.

Reds hitters are slugging just .337 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.

The Reds have a winning percentage of just 36% on the road this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Reds hitters have an OPS of .779 (3,046 PA’s) against right-handed relievers since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .288 (2,450 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Marlins hitters have 674 strikeouts in 2,450 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .350 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .409.

Marlins hitters have drawn 50 walks in 754 PA’s (7%) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,000 of 10,108 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.33 (383.0 IP) on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .301 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have an ERA of 6.20 (61.0 IP) over the past seven days (7 games) — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.78.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Marlins vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
  • Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): COVID-19, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Wrist, D10
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.