Reds vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 2

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 02, 2022, 3:36 PM
  • The Marlins (47-56) are -145 favorites vs the Reds (41-61)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft (4-2), 4.63 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett (2-4), 3.95 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The Cincinnati Reds (+120) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-145) on Tuesday, August 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.

The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).

The Reds vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 41-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 45-58 ATS.

Reds vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -185O 7 +105+120
Marlins -1.5 +150U 7 -125-145

Reds vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 71.8% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Marlins vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 55 games (+17.65 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 35 of his last 57 games (+14.70 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 55 games (+14.45 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.00 Units / 22% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+13.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+12.65 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.30 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.85 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)

Marlins vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Bryan De La Cruz 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Charles Leblanc 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Joey Wendle 0.5 +1000 0.5 -10000

Marlins vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 -250 0.5 +170
Bryan De La Cruz 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Charles Leblanc 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 -160 0.5 +115
Joey Wendle 1.5 +165 1.5 -250

Marlins vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Bryan De La Cruz 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Charles Leblanc 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Jesus Sanchez 0.5 +210 0.5 -300
Joey Wendle 0.5 +250 0.5 -375

Marlins vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Braxton Garrett 5.5 -130 5.5 -110
Graham Ashcraft 4.5 -110 4.5 -130
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 74 games (+15.45 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games (+9.85 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 76 games (+9.35 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.80 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.50 Units / 34% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 29 of their last 49 games at home (+8.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 40 games at home (+4.55 Units / 10% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 49-53 against the Run Line (-9.55 Units / -7.5% ROI).

  • 41-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.1 Units / -9.21% ROI
  • 54-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.9 Units / 1.69% ROI
  • 47-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.6 Units / -11.23% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 45-58 against the Run Line (-20.85 Units / -15.27% ROI).

  • 47-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.75 Units / -11.05% ROI
  • 50-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.5 Units / -3.07% ROI
  • 49-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.55 Units / -4.9% ROI

Graham Ashcraft has a first-pitch strike rate of just 47% (25/53) — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.

Graham Ashcraft has thrown fastballs 74% of the time (414/557) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (51/82) against Graham Ashcraft in two-strike counts this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (99/552) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.

Braxton Garrett: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a chase percentage of 37% (156/421) against Braxton Garrett this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.

Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (355/844) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.

76% of Braxton Garrett’s non-fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone this season — 15th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 90th Percentile.

Braxton Garrett has recorded 38 of his 55 strikeouts (69%) with breaking balls this season — 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 91st Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Reds are just 31-7 (.816) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.

The Reds are just 24-32 (.429) at home this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .523.

The Reds are just 40-46 (.465) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.

The Reds are just 29-7 (.806) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Marlins are just 8-24 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.

The Marlins are just 6-36 (.143) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.

The Marlins are just 7-24 (.226) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.

The Marlins are just 17-52 (.246) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.

Reds hitters have an OBP of just .280 (446 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.

Reds hitters have an OBP of .323 (7,254 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .313.

Reds hitters have an OPS of just .624 (1,692 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.

Reds hitters are slugging just .336 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .288 (2,453 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Marlins hitters have 209 strikeouts in 757 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .276 (757 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.

Marlins hitters have 675 strikeouts in 2,453 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 55 double plays in 797 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,001 of 10,144 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .300 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 65% of their games at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
  • Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): COVID-19, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Wrist, D10
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.