- The Marlins (47-56) are -145 favorites vs the Reds (41-61)
- Reds starting pitcher: Douglas Ashcraft (4-2), 4.63 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Braxton Garrett (2-4), 3.95 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Cincinnati Reds (+120) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-145) on Tuesday, August 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+150).
The Reds vs Marlins Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 41-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 45-58 ATS.
Reds vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -185 | O 7 +105 | +120 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +150 | U 7 -125 | -145 |
Reds vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 71.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 34 of his last 55 games (+17.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 35 of his last 57 games (+14.70 Units / 24% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 36 of his last 55 games (+14.45 Units / 14% ROI)
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jonathan India has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 20 games (+10.00 Units / 22% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 29 games (+13.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+12.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+12.30 Units / 45% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 17 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
Marlins vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Charles Leblanc | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Joey Wendle | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
Marlins vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Charles Leblanc | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +115 |
| Joey Wendle | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
Marlins vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryan De La Cruz | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Charles Leblanc | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Jesus Sanchez | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Joey Wendle | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -375 |
Marlins vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Braxton Garrett | 5.5 -130 | 5.5 -110 |
| Graham Ashcraft | 4.5 -110 | 4.5 -130 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 74 games (+15.45 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 25 games (+9.85 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 43 of their last 76 games (+9.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games (+6.80 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 away games (+6.50 Units / 34% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 29 of their last 49 games at home (+8.95 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 40 games at home (+4.55 Units / 10% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 49-53 against the Run Line (-9.55 Units / -7.5% ROI).
- 41-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -10.1 Units / -9.21% ROI
- 54-47 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.9 Units / 1.69% ROI
- 47-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -12.6 Units / -11.23% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 45-58 against the Run Line (-20.85 Units / -15.27% ROI).
- 47-56 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.75 Units / -11.05% ROI
- 50-49 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.5 Units / -3.07% ROI
- 49-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.55 Units / -4.9% ROI
Douglas Ashcraft: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Graham Ashcraft has a first-pitch strike rate of just 47% (25/53) — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Graham Ashcraft has thrown fastballs 74% of the time (414/557) vs left-handed batters this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 48% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (51/82) against Graham Ashcraft in two-strike counts this season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 18% (99/552) against Graham Ashcraft this season — 9th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
Braxton Garrett: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a chase percentage of 37% (156/421) against Braxton Garrett this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 29% — 99th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has thrown inside pitches 42% of the time (355/844) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 31% — 99th Percentile.
76% of Braxton Garrett’s non-fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone this season — 15th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 63% — 90th Percentile.
Braxton Garrett has recorded 38 of his 55 strikeouts (69%) with breaking balls this season — 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 50 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 91st Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Reds are just 31-7 (.816) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .912.
The Reds are just 24-32 (.429) at home this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Reds are just 40-46 (.465) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .534.
The Reds are just 29-7 (.806) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Marlins are just 8-24 (.250) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .337.
The Marlins are just 6-36 (.143) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Marlins are just 7-24 (.226) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .292.
The Marlins are just 17-52 (.246) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .294.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .280 (446 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
Reds hitters have an OBP of .323 (7,254 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .624 (1,692 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Reds hitters are slugging just .336 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .391.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .288 (2,453 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have 209 strikeouts in 757 PA’s (28%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .276 (757 PA’s) against LHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .317.
Marlins hitters have 675 strikeouts in 2,453 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 55 double plays in 797 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,001 of 10,144 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .300 against Reds pitchers with runners on base this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 65% of their games at home this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of 2020 — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
- Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): COVID-19, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Anthony Bender (Marlins): Back, D60
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Wrist, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, D15
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
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