Reds vs Marlins Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 3

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 03, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Marlins (47-57) are -200 favorites vs the Reds (42-61)
  • Reds starting pitcher: Michael Minor (1-7), 6.31 ERA
  • Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (9-4), 1.98 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSFL

The Cincinnati Reds (+170) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-200) on Wednesday, August 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.

The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Reds vs Marlins Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Reds are 42-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 45-59 ATS.

Reds vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Reds+1.5 -130O 6.5 +100+170
Marlins -1.5 +105U 6.5 -120-200

Reds vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 63.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Marlins vs Reds and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.60 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 16 away games (+9.30 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 18 away games (+9.10 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 34 away games (+9.10 Units / 16% ROI)

Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+13.65 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.30 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.05 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.85 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Jesus Aguilar has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.70 Units / 42% ROI)

Marlins vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 +340 0.5 -600
Charles Leblanc 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400
JJ Bleday 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Jacob Stallings 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

Marlins vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Charles Leblanc 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
JJ Bleday 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
Jacob Stallings 0.5 -140 0.5 +100
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 -190 0.5 +135

Marlins vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Avisail Garcia 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Charles Leblanc 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
JJ Bleday 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Jacob Stallings 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Jesus Aguilar 0.5 +145 0.5 -200

Marlins vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Sandy Alcantara 7.5 -120 7.5 -115
Mike Minor 5.5 -105 5.5 -135
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 75 games (+16.45 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 26 games (+11.15 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 77 games (+10.35 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.90 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 28 away games (+6.50 Units / 21% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+7.95 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+4.50 Units / 25% ROI)

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 50-53 against the Run Line (-8.55 Units / -6.63% ROI).

  • 42-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -7.95% ROI
  • 54-48 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.7 Units / 0.61% ROI
  • 48-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.6 Units / -10.25% ROI

Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 45-59 against the Run Line (-21.85 Units / -15.89% ROI).

  • 47-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.25 Units / -12.11% ROI
  • 50-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.7 Units / -4.07% ROI
  • 50-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.55 Units / -3.98% ROI

Mike Minor has walked 7 of 47 batters (15%) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.

Mike Minor has allowed a slugging percentage of .572 (119 Total Bases / 208 ABs) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 51 total IP; League Avg: .396 — first Percentile.

Mike Minor has walked 6 of 39 right-handed batters (15%) — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — third Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 19% (5/26) against Mike Minor — 4th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — fourth Percentile.

Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (24/158) against Sandy Alcantara this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (83/140) against Sandy Alcantara in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .163 (42-for-258) against Sandy Alcantara’s non-fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .217 — 92nd Percentile.

Sandy Alcantara has allowed a slugging percentage of just .301 (158 Total Bases / 525 ABs) this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — 95th Percentile.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins

The Reds are just 32-7 (.821) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Reds are just 8-28 (.222) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.

The Reds are just 30-7 (.811) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Reds are just 5-140 (.034) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Marlins are just 6-36 (.143) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.

The Marlins are just 7-24 (.226) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.

The Marlins are just 22-28 (.440) at home this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .523.

The Marlins are just 8-25 (.242) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Reds hitters have an OPS of just .619 (1,729 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.

Reds hitters are slugging just .381 against LHP since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.

Reds hitters have an OBP of just .278 (453 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.

The Reds are batting just .238 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.

Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .288 (2,453 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.

Marlins hitters have 675 strikeouts in 2,453 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Marlins hitters are slugging just .323 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.

The Marlins are batting just .223 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 55 double plays in 800 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have walked 1,001 of 10,176 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Reds pitchers have walked 384 of 3,977 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Marlins pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 73 double plays in 669 opportunities (11%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Marlins vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
  • Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
  • Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
  • Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
  • Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
  • Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
  • Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): COVID-19, D15
  • Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
  • Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
  • Avisaíl García (Marlins): Left Hamstring, Day-to-Day
  • Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
  • Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
  • Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Wrist, D10
  • Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.