- The Marlins (47-57) are -200 favorites vs the Reds (42-61)
- Reds starting pitcher: Michael Minor (1-7), 6.31 ERA
- Marlins starting pitcher: Sandy Alcantara (9-4), 1.98 ERA
- Watch the game on BSFL
The Cincinnati Reds (+170) visit loanDepot park to take on the Miami Marlins (-200) on Wednesday, August 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Miami.
The Marlins are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Reds vs Marlins Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Reds are 42-61 against the spread (ATS), while the Marlins are 45-59 ATS.
Reds vs. Marlins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Reds | +1.5 -130 | O 6.5 +100 | +170 |
| Marlins | -1.5 +105 | U 6.5 -120 | -200 |
Reds vs Marlins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Marlins will win Wednesday‘s matchup with 63.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Reds and Marlins and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Reds Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Tyler Stephenson has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 20 away games (+10.65 Units / 25% ROI)
- Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+10.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 16 away games (+9.30 Units / 55% ROI)
- Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 18 away games (+9.10 Units / 25% ROI)
- Joey Votto has hit the Runs Under in 25 of his last 34 away games (+9.10 Units / 16% ROI)
Best Marlins Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Marlins players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Total Bases Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+13.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- Joey Wendle has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+13.30 Units / 46% ROI)
- Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Sandy Alcantara has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.85 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jesus Aguilar has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.70 Units / 42% ROI)
Marlins vs Reds Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Charles Leblanc | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Marlins vs Reds Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Charles Leblanc | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 -140 | 0.5 +100 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
Marlins vs Reds RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Avisail Garcia | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Charles Leblanc | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| JJ Bleday | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jacob Stallings | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Jesus Aguilar | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
Marlins vs Reds Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Sandy Alcantara | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 -115 |
| Mike Minor | 5.5 -105 | 5.5 -135 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Reds Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 46 of their last 75 games (+16.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 26 games (+11.15 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 44 of their last 77 games (+10.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+7.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 17 of their last 28 away games (+6.50 Units / 21% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Marlins: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+7.95 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 16 games at home (+4.50 Units / 25% ROI)
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 50-53 against the Run Line (-8.55 Units / -6.63% ROI).
- 42-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.8 Units / -7.95% ROI
- 54-48 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.7 Units / 0.61% ROI
- 48-54 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.6 Units / -10.25% ROI
Marlins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 45-59 against the Run Line (-21.85 Units / -15.89% ROI).
- 47-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.25 Units / -12.11% ROI
- 50-50 when betting on the total runs Over for -4.7 Units / -4.07% ROI
- 50-50 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.55 Units / -3.98% ROI
Michael Minor: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Mike Minor has walked 7 of 47 batters (15%) — 2nd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — first Percentile.
Mike Minor has allowed a slugging percentage of .572 (119 Total Bases / 208 ABs) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 51 total IP; League Avg: .396 — first Percentile.
Mike Minor has walked 6 of 39 right-handed batters (15%) — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 6% — third Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 19% (5/26) against Mike Minor — 4th lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 41% — fourth Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara: Marlins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (24/158) against Sandy Alcantara this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 59% (83/140) against Sandy Alcantara in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .163 (42-for-258) against Sandy Alcantara’s non-fastballs this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .217 — 92nd Percentile.
Sandy Alcantara has allowed a slugging percentage of just .301 (158 Total Bases / 525 ABs) this season — 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .382 — 95th Percentile.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Marlins
The Reds are just 32-7 (.821) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Reds are just 8-28 (.222) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .282.
The Reds are just 30-7 (.811) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Reds are just 5-140 (.034) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
Marlins Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Marlins are just 6-36 (.143) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .204.
The Marlins are just 7-24 (.226) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .291.
The Marlins are just 22-28 (.440) at home this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .523.
The Marlins are just 8-25 (.242) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
Reds hitters have an OPS of just .619 (1,729 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Reds hitters are slugging just .381 against LHP since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .408.
Reds hitters have an OBP of just .278 (453 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.
The Reds are batting just .238 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Marlins Hitting Stats & Trends
Marlins hitters have an OBP of just .288 (2,453 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .319.
Marlins hitters have 675 strikeouts in 2,453 PA’s (28%) against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Marlins hitters are slugging just .323 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
The Marlins are batting just .223 against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 55 double plays in 800 opportunities (7%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,001 of 10,176 batters (10%) since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds pitchers have walked 384 of 3,977 batters (10%) this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Marlins Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Marlins pitchers since the start of last season — tied for 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Marlins pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into 73 double plays in 669 opportunities (11%) this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
The Marlins pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 57% of their games this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Marlins vs. Reds Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jonathon Berti (Marlins): Groin, D10
- Jorge Soler (Marlins): Back, D10
- Max Meyer (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Paul Campbell (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Daniel Castano (Marlins): Concussion, D7
- Thomas Nance (Marlins): Groin, D15
- Cole Sulser (Marlins): Lat, D15
- Brian Anderson (Marlins): Shoulder, D10
- Elieser Hernandez (Marlins): COVID-19, D15
- Sean Guenther (Marlins): Arm, D60
- Cody Poteet (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Trevor Rogers (Marlins): Back, D15
- Avisaíl García (Marlins): Left Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Jordan Holloway (Marlins): Elbow, D60
- Jasrado Chisholm Jr. (Marlins): Back, D60
- Garrett Cooper (Marlins): Wrist, D10
- Edward Cabrera (Marlins): Elbow, D15
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D60
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
- Luis Cessa (Reds): Back, Day-to-Day
- Arthur Warren (Reds): Elbow, D15
- Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
- Jeffrey Hoffman (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Aramis Garcia (Reds): Finger, D10
- Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Clavicle, D60
- Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D60
- Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
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